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Pattern January 2017 Discussion

How's the wave/lakes cutter Tuesday night looking. Where it sets up shop and how strong it gets holds the keys to the whole puzzle. It's our 50/50 low.
 
Stormlover link said:
Holy smokes
610temp.new.gif
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ATL right about normal. Honestly with some near 70's forecasted for next week, I'll take normal!


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initial cutter is weaker and more of a strung out mess @114

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Rare cold snap to cover the lower 48
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/12/29/rare-coast-to-coast-cold-snap-to-engulf-lower-48-late-next-week/
 
tellicowx link said:
initial cutter is weaker and more of a strung out mess @114

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I'm behind everybody, see it now. Look for ns energy on the 5h to phase mege in. Hopefully it'll wind it up
 
Just as an example, this is why you take OP runs past 120 with a grain of salt. This is the first cutter inside 120hrs

18z
85b2b78e9da3f05382b2f57ff66d65c5.jpg


00z (strung out mess)
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Yes, much colder run, freezing line setting up along I-20.

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Looks like the famous cold rain for Atlanta though a brief round of ice unfortunately for far NW burbs.


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Too many cooks in the kitchen! Cluttered
 
From what a poster at the other board said, it sounded colder and wetter for RDU this time.
 
omg what a much better run for that storm then previous runs. So much juice and plenty of cold. We need a little colder but it's best one of the day so far. Ice has central Alabama written all over it.
 
Brick Tamland link said:
From what a poster at the other board said, it sounded colder and wetter for RDU this time.
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You know that it's not that hard to read these models? Lol
 
Well. It went from Interstate 40 event to a Interstate 20 event.  Setup is there.
 
Well, have fun anyone outside ATL or CAE.  I retire from this threat.
 
CMC say maybe not so much... although central Mississippi and
5aad6efd8d47f217c0fc614d8679b1bf.jpg
Alabama gets plenty of sleet from this verbatim...
b1c65a4734026c668a45cf20e7b9bac8.jpg



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I'm not really trying to focus beyond 186 because it gets disorganized and there isn't a defined low. The frontal boundary is still there (good news). Still watching that low over SW NM, that should be our bigger snow maker. If you jump to 204, there's the low poping up. That's the low that should be organized through hrs starting approximately at 186 to 198. Also note, the high is in the right place for a snow event (it moves west to east just north of the OH river as the moisture moves along the southeast.

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whatalife link said:
CMC say maybe not so much... although central Mississippi and
5aad6efd8d47f217c0fc614d8679b1bf.jpg
Alabama gets plenty of sleet from this verbatim...
b1c65a4734026c668a45cf20e7b9bac8.jpg



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Click to expand...

That looks like it's close to Accu35's neck of the woods
 
whatalife link said:
CMC say maybe not so much... although central Mississippi and
5aad6efd8d47f217c0fc614d8679b1bf.jpg
Alabama gets plenty of sleet from this verbatim...
b1c65a4734026c668a45cf20e7b9bac8.jpg



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Click to expand...
I'll take a more suppressed look at this point . of course the cmc is garbage but always fun to look at

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whatalife link said:
CMC say maybe not so much... although central Mississippi and
5aad6efd8d47f217c0fc614d8679b1bf.jpg
Alabama gets plenty of sleet from this verbatim...
b1c65a4734026c668a45cf20e7b9bac8.jpg



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Click to expand...

Ahh CMC took major steps back towards the winter solution, instead of an Ohio & Mid Atlantic Special from the 12z! Back to a suppressed look with 2 waves again.
 
Welp,,.. you guys in Mississipp, Alabama, Nc and brent have fun. Im done with this one.
 
For those living and dying on these OP runs, I feel for you over the next week...it's gonna be a rough one on you.

The OP is struggling even with the initial cutter inside 120hr. Its went from a nice wrapped up system to a double barrel low going up the coast. A lot of people inside the Ohio valley just went "what happened to all my rain" lol.

18z
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00z
fcd3641f055fa4008205c716f02f5238.jpg


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