Pattern January 2017 Discussion

[Tagat]

Was the Jan. 2014 overrunning event picked up by models this far out or was it just a day or so before it happened?

 

[WXinCanton]

Re: January 2017 Discussion

let's not even discuss the possibility of another system that the 12z euro would offer post day ten......

Good Grief .....Sign me up 

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That is about as good of look you can get.  Check please

 

[HartselleWeather]

The euro had a real nice look for a lot of folks board wide. 

 

[NorthGaWinter]

Re: January 2017 Discussion

[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=60.msg3851#msg3851 date=1482951947]
let's not even discuss the possibility of another system that the 12z euro would offer post day ten......

Good Grief .....Sign me up 

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That is about as good of look you can get.  Check please
[/quote]

I feel like even though this run showed rain for us. We would score if that run panned out

 

[Arcc]

Was the Jan. 2014 overrunning event picked up by models this far out or was it just a day or so before it happened?

It was a good while out.

 

[Weatherlover92]

As usually, CAE gets screwed.  Sorry fellow central s.carolinians  maybe even ATL gets screwed. we'll see totals maps soon enough

Seems like a February 2014 redux for us, which is fine. We didn't get much snow, but we got a nice sleetstorm which was a lot better than the nasty icestorm folks got to our south and east.

 

[Arcc]

Re: January 2017 Discussion

let's not even discuss the possibility of another system that the 12z euro would offer post day ten......

Good Grief .....Sign me up 

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Nothing cuts there. That is up there with the super fantasy looks of all time.

 

[WeatherLC]

We are still so far out though. Right now we are at 65 and sunny here in north Georgia. This is probably a silly question, but why is everyone getting so excited about model runs 200 hours out?

 

[SnowHusky]

of course still a LONG ways out . details don't matter, we need the general setup to stay the day for another week.......

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Agreed, we don't need to focus on details. With it being this far out, the things we can focus on is the placement of winter weather (which area's are likely to see snow and area's that are likely to see ZR/IP) and model agreement.

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[Rain Cold]

[quote author=Shawn link=topic=60.msg3839#msg3839 date=1482951549]
As usually, CAE gets screwed.  Sorry fellow central s.carolinians  maybe even ATL gets screwed. we'll see totals maps soon enough

I wouldn't worry about specifics now.  It shows cold rain for my back yard.  If you blended the Euro and GFS though, many many more of us be happy.  Just happy it's picking it up.
[/quote]

That's a super impressive dual block.  I like that the Greenland block is coming in a little stronger instead of going the other way.

 

[$alt]

We are still so far out though. Right now we are at 65 and sunny here in north Georgia. This is probably a silly question, but why is everyone getting so excited about model runs 200 hours out?

Because the 500mb look is good and supportive.  Aside from some poop runs here and there, this look is really trying to hold on across various guidance.  The storm threats are gonna jump around of course.. but it's good to see what is possible in the pattern we could potentially have.

Shortly, 500mb/overall pattern helps give credit to Wintry events like we saw on GFS/Euro today.

 

[WXinCanton]

Re: January 2017 Discussion

[quote author=WXinCanton link=topic=60.msg3863#msg3863 date=1482952542]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=60.msg3851#msg3851 date=1482951947]
let's not even discuss the possibility of another system that the 12z euro would offer post day ten......

Good Grief .....Sign me up 

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk

That is about as good of look you can get.  Check please
[/quote]

I feel like even though this run showed rain for us. We would score if that run panned out
[/quote]

Oh yeah.  So far out, but if that blocking verifies like it shows I would not be surprised at an adjustment south.  Usually can't say because we usually don't have much blocking/-NAO thus we get the NW trend  But on the Euro there is plenty of blocking.

 

[SnowHusky]

We are still so far out though. Right now we are at 65 and sunny here in north Georgia. This is probably a silly question, but why is everyone getting so excited about model runs 200 hours out?

Because there is dual blocking, we are going to go into a favorable pattern that increases the chance for winter wx across the south. Also, there could be a LP coming up along the frontal boundary in the Gulf per 12z GFS. 

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[WXinCanton]

We are still so far out though. Right now we are at 65 and sunny here in north Georgia. This is probably a silly question, but why is everyone getting so excited about model runs 200 hours out?

Because we are all weenies at heart. 

 

[SD]

We are still so far out though. Right now we are at 65 and sunny here in north Georgia. This is probably a silly question, but why is everyone getting so excited about model runs 200 hours out?

A. It's winter B. Today's temps have no relevance on the future C. All models have some type of epo ridge. D. We generally live at day 10 in the SE anyway

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[Storm5]

[quote author=GainesvilleWX link=topic=60.msg3872#msg3872 date=1482953149]
We are still so far out though. Right now we are at 65 and sunny here in north Georgia. This is probably a silly question, but why is everyone getting so excited about model runs 200 hours out?

A. It's winter B. Today's temps have no relevance on the future C. All models have some type of epo ridge. D. We generally live at day 10 in the SE anyway

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[/quote]
not me Playa I've living on day 8 . Hell by ten it's starting to end slowly in your neck of the woods .

#day8isbetterthanday10

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[HartselleWeather]

[quote author=GainesvilleWX link=topic=60.msg3872#msg3872 date=1482953149]
We are still so far out though. Right now we are at 65 and sunny here in north Georgia. This is probably a silly question, but why is everyone getting so excited about model runs 200 hours out?

A. It's winter B. Today's temps have no relevance on the future C. All models have some type of epo ridge. D. We generally live at day 10 in the SE anyway

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[/quote]

Yea SD is right. A few years back we had highs right at 70 the day before and the next morning we had a 3 inch sleet storm.

 

[Cary_Snow95]

[quote author=SD link=topic=60.msg3880#msg3880 date=1482953864]
[quote author=GainesvilleWX link=topic=60.msg3872#msg3872 date=1482953149]
We are still so far out though. Right now we are at 65 and sunny here in north Georgia. This is probably a silly question, but why is everyone getting so excited about model runs 200 hours out?

A. It's winter B. Today's temps have no relevance on the future C. All models have some type of epo ridge. D. We generally live at day 10 in the SE anyway

Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk
[/quote]
not me Playa I've living on day 8 . Hell by ten it's starting to end slowly in your neck of the woods .

#day8isbetterthanday10

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
[/quote]

If the Euro went out another 24 hours I assume central NC would turn to all snow and get a good amount more

 

[Storm5]

[quote author=SD link=topic=60.msg3880#msg3880 date=1482953864]
[quote author=GainesvilleWX link=topic=60.msg3872#msg3872 date=1482953149]
We are still so far out though. Right now we are at 65 and sunny here in north Georgia. This is probably a silly question, but why is everyone getting so excited about model runs 200 hours out?

A. It's winter B. Today's temps have no relevance on the future C. All models have some type of epo ridge. D. We generally live at day 10 in the SE anyway

Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk
[/quote]

Yea SD is right. A few years back we had highs right at 70 the day before and the next morning we had a 3 inch sleet storm.
[/quote]
only need to go back to 2014 . all the meta here said not to worry cause it was in the 60s the day before

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[HartselleWeather]

Re: January 2017 Discussion

[quote author=NorthGAWinterWx link=topic=60.msg3814#msg3814 date=1482948722]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=60.msg3812#msg3812 date=1482947446]
[quote author=NorthGAWinterWx link=topic=60.msg3811#msg3811 date=1482947148]
I know it's two different waves. It's important of how the first wave comes about to see if that 2nd wave comes up along that frontal boundary. I somewhat lost my interest on the first wave cause the GFS is showing it will be a lake cutter from the past 2-3 runs. I'm more focused on rather or not the 2nd wave will come up along that frontal boundary.

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I'm not talking about the lakes cutter at all. it's the whiff the gfs has after that at day 8 . the same wave the cmc has . there could easily be two waves outside of any cutter 

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[/quote]
Yes, I saw that, I'm still more focused on that possible 2nd wave, cause it forms at the end of the frontal boundary, plus it could come up from the Gulf, and we know what Gulf lows can do. That first wave could give the Carolinas some winter wx and then it's gone out to the Atlantic following that cutter.

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[/quote]
gulf lows cause way too many issues. I'd much rather have an overrunning event vs a gulf low . gulf lows will screw many with WAA and track issues

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[/quote]
I can't remember but was the 2 big snows we got in February in 2013 and 2014 overrunning events?