GeorgiaGirl
Member
Another suppressed look wouldn't necessarily be bad to me.
But if it goes from warm/cutter to suppressed, that's really confusing.
But if it goes from warm/cutter to suppressed, that's really confusing.
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Pattern January 2017 Discussion
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Storm5
Member
this run will crush the MA
Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
N
NorthGaWinter
Guest
Well that would be a fun Ice storm
Storm5
Member
just another possible solution. we have seen everything today
except what we want
Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
except what we want
Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
WeatherDawg87 link said:
Mack,
The 12Z para-GFS gives Waycross some kind of wintry precip. a week from tonight (1/5-6)! Imagine the meltdown here if that were to somehow occur and if not much falls further north.
[/quote]
I'm probably the only person on here that would be in favor of such a thing. Does it show all of South Georgia getting something frozen falling from the sky?
[/quote]
No, just far SE GA in a band east of a line from Waycross northeastward to SAV. All of the way to the coast. Light amounts of mainly under 0.10" liquid equiv.
Storm5
Member
that run was so much slower it was painful to watch
Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
Bsudweather
Member
- Joined
- Jan 6, 2017
- Messages
- 56
- Reaction score
- 0
As I said last night, us in the CAD areas better hope its cold enough or we could end up with a bad ice storm. This run is all over that solution.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Yeah, this run...yikes for Northeast GA and upstate SC. That's a big ice storm.
18z GFS is like12z Euro, there are two lows, one over southwestern NM and another one in the northwestern Gulf at 192. The energy from the low over southwestern NM kicks too fast just like the energy from the 12z Euro. Another low pops up at 216 in the Atlantic (a low is still in the Gulf) so with double lows, more WAA. NC gets a hammering of IP/ZR.
Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Still lots of different scenarios with each model, and even from run to run with the same model. No real consistency yet.
accu35
Member
- Joined
- Jan 5, 2017
- Messages
- 8,660
- Reaction score
- 10,817
This run is so close to many more, it has my attention. I watched the full completion of the second wave and it actually look good. Just a few degrees colder then Boom. There's alot of energy and plenty of cold just need timing. I bet the gefs will look better than the OP
Storm5
Member
too fast ? that run was much slower with the energyNorthGAWinterWx link said:
Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
Storm5
Member
I like the slower evolution of the 18z gfs gives more time for the cold to move in. need to watch the SER and the placement of the block . but I'd take that slower look
Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Storm5 link said:
Yep, you're right, that's the main reason why the Euro operational was less favorable for much of the SE US... The faster the shortwave energy kicks out, the less time the cold air will have to build in & hence the frontal wave will form and ride along the arctic front further North & west. We still have a very loonng ways to go
Re: January 2017 Discussion
About when would we want the energy to kick out?
[/quote]
Shortly after the first wave, we need the colder air in here first, better yet, at the same time as that 2nd wave moves in, if there will be a 2nd wave moving along to the southeast. Timing is very important with the looks of this scenario. Over the past days, I've been saying that I see a better chance with a 2nd wave for snow. And, above that 2nd low over southwestern NM, that high will be important as well. If you look at the GFS you can see it moving along with the low over southwestern NM which would eventually set up a snow event for the southeast if only that 2nd wave didn't kick out so fast.
Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
cg2916 link said:
About when would we want the energy to kick out?
[/quote]
Shortly after the first wave, we need the colder air in here first, better yet, at the same time as that 2nd wave moves in, if there will be a 2nd wave moving along to the southeast. Timing is very important with the looks of this scenario. Over the past days, I've been saying that I see a better chance with a 2nd wave for snow. And, above that 2nd low over southwestern NM, that high will be important as well. If you look at the GFS you can see it moving along with the low over southwestern NM which would eventually set up a snow event for the southeast if only that 2nd wave didn't kick out so fast.
Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
Stormlover
Member
From Huntsville NWS discussion:
If the front remains across central Alabama, as
models hint at now, we may have some significant winter weather
developing Thursday into Friday.
If the front remains across central Alabama, as
models hint at now, we may have some significant winter weather
developing Thursday into Friday.
too fast ? that run was much slower with the energyStorm5 link said:
Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
[/quote]
I'm not focused on the exact model timing, I'm focusing on the similarities of the placement of energy.
Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Even if it is a mix of snow and ice, this would still be a pretty good storm. And it's close to being something bigger.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Some of you will probably find this site useful... Depicts various model biases in the ECMWF, UKMET, CMC, NAVGEM, and GFS thru 168 HR
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/mdlbias/
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/mdlbias/
Storm5
Member
NorthGAWinterWx link said:
About when would we want the energy to kick out?
[/quote]
Shortly after the first wave, we need the colder air in here first, better yet, at the same time as that 2nd wave moves in, if there will be a 2nd wave moving along to the southeast. Timing is very important with the looks of this scenario. Over the past days, I've been saying that I see a better chance with a 2nd wave for snow. And, above that 2nd low over southwestern NM, that high will be important as well. If you look at the GFS you can see it moving along with the low over southwestern NM which would eventually set up a snow event for the southeast if only that 2nd wave didn't kick out so fast.
Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
[/quote]
we must be looking at different gfs runs . cause the 18z gfs was much slower with that energy.
Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
Storm5
Member
too fast ? that run was much slower with the energyNorthGAWinterWx link said:
Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
[/quote]
I'm not focused on the exact model timing, I'm focusing on the similarities of the placement of energy.
Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
[/quote]
timing is everything with a transient block
Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
C
CummingWx
Guest
GaWx link said:
18Z GFS: Major ZR in main CAD resions of NE GA/SC/NC 1/7
[/quote]
Larry, does the ice come down to Cumming or is it mainly extreme NE GA?
Storm5
Member
77 guests please go register . come next week if we have a legit threat we are going to have to change a few settings to handle traffic and if your a guest you won't be able to read the thread. so please register so you won't miss anything . takes 30 seconds
Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
Storm5 link said:
About when would we want the energy to kick out?
[/quote]
Shortly after the first wave, we need the colder air in here first, better yet, at the same time as that 2nd wave moves in, if there will be a 2nd wave moving along to the southeast. Timing is very important with the looks of this scenario. Over the past days, I've been saying that I see a better chance with a 2nd wave for snow. And, above that 2nd low over southwestern NM, that high will be important as well. If you look at the GFS you can see it moving along with the low over southwestern NM which would eventually set up a snow event for the southeast if only that 2nd wave didn't kick out so fast.
Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
[/quote]
we must be looking at different gfs runs . cause the 18z gfs was much slower with that energy.
Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
[/quote]
12z Euro is faster and 18z GFS is slower. 12z Euro has moisture pushing out by 228 while the 18z GFS has freezing rain still going on in NC at hr 228. The 12z Euro is slower with that piece of energy that I'm talking about but it catches up at 174-180.
Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
Storm5
Member
Re: January 2017 Discussion
yuck the 18z gefs has too many miller bs for my liking
and a nice huge cutter . all options on the table including a high probability of heartbreak
Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
yuck the 18z gefs has too many miller bs for my liking
and a nice huge cutter . all options on the table including a high probability of heartbreak
Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
Still a long ways to go but I don't like how ice is becoming more of a possibility... again this would be crippling
Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
Storm5
Member
so don't bother looking?accu35 link said:
[/quote]
it's not horrible but it's got too many solutions I don't like . just being picky
Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
Re: January 2017 Discussion
Well, that 18z GFS run was good IMO. Someone posted, stating that, the NWS office out of AL said that a major winter event could be setting up if that boundary front hangs there. I agree, and that's what I mentioned before. Things will start to get interesting for sure. We've seen enough consistand runs showing that the southeastern states will get winter weather during the 5th-7th time period and possibly into the 8th.
Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
Well, that 18z GFS run was good IMO. Someone posted, stating that, the NWS office out of AL said that a major winter event could be setting up if that boundary front hangs there. I agree, and that's what I mentioned before. Things will start to get interesting for sure. We've seen enough consistand runs showing that the southeastern states will get winter weather during the 5th-7th time period and possibly into the 8th.
Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
MichaelJ
Member
Looking at the ensemble individual members, looks likely to be a miss wide left to me.
accu35
Member
- Joined
- Jan 5, 2017
- Messages
- 8,660
- Reaction score
- 10,817
Re: January 2017 Discussion
I agree 100%. This is a ongoing model to model threat. We are very close to something to a major event. Just need a tad colder. And be truful I still think GFS is underestimating the coldNorthGAWinterWx link said:
olhausen
Member
January 2017 Discussion
Does anyone know how much of this is actually snow in northern middle Tennessee vs ice? I'm getting my winter subscription to wxbell tomorrow so I don't have access to the maps that separate the two yet. If it's mostly ice I don't want anything to do with it. I like ice if it's a light glaze with no power outages which I usually see once or twice per season up here. But anything heavy I'd rather have rain.
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
Does anyone know how much of this is actually snow in northern middle Tennessee vs ice? I'm getting my winter subscription to wxbell tomorrow so I don't have access to the maps that separate the two yet. If it's mostly ice I don't want anything to do with it. I like ice if it's a light glaze with no power outages which I usually see once or twice per season up here. But anything heavy I'd rather have rain.
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
RollTide18
Member
One thing is for sure, my eyes will be glues to the 00z runs.
Re: January 2017 Discussion
Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
I posted a pic a few post back from pivotal weather showing ice accrual. Pivotal is good site for thatolhausen link said:Does anyone know how much of this is actually snow in northern middle Tennessee vs ice? I'm getting my winter subscription to wxbell tomorrow so I don't have access to the maps that separate the two yet. If it's mostly ice I don't want anything to do with it. I like ice if it's a light glaze with no power outages which I usually see once or twice per season up here. But anything heavy I'd rather have rain.
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk