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Pattern January 2017 Discussion

tellicowx link said:
After running thru each ensemble member, to see what changed cutting the mean totals down. There is still a couple cutters, but the big change for members with little or no wintry weather, is they suppress the system.

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So not necessarily a bad thing?
 
cg2916 link said:
[quote author=tellicowx link=topic=60.msg4482#msg4482 date=1483045529]
After running thru each ensemble member, to see what changed cutting the mean totals down. There is still a couple cutters, but the big change for members with little or no wintry weather, is they suppress the system.

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So not necessarily a bad thing?
[/quote]
At this range, I don't think so at all. If you look at the 00z mean vs 12z, the areas with the biggest dropoffs stretch from East TN to the MA. That's due to there is no system in some of the members in that time frame.

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UKMET at 120, hey Asia, you better give our cold...Pacific ridgeing going on.
13d691448ee170decddc33e346f22fc4.jpg


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SD link said:
[quote author=Shawn link=topic=60.msg4471#msg4471 date=1483044535]
[quote author=accu35 link=topic=60.msg4470#msg4470 date=1483044410]
So no map for the control?
Click to expand...

not great through day 12 outside tn.
eps_snow_c_east_49.png

[/quote]
Some guy in that small patch of 0 in NW Missouri is having a huge meltdown

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[/quote]
we should invite him to join the board and we can all meltdown together this weekend

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also nice to see this after talkweather, didn't post much because didn't feel like i had much to contribute, but it feels good to be in the loop
 
Looking at the EPS members, you can see which ones lose the system. There's no large swath across the OH valley or Plains to indicate a cutter, or large area just across NC to indicate a Miller B or CAD sig. To me it explains why the H5 looked better, but the mean didnt. This is also getting close to the timeframe the Euro sometimes has lost a system in the past.

d8cbb66c4b923c3d2308bc0a027edd46.jpg


c970e6a30783e29fcb736f8f98596352.jpg


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Storm5 link said:
[quote author=SD link=topic=60.msg4475#msg4475 date=1483044775]
[quote author=Shawn link=topic=60.msg4471#msg4471 date=1483044535]
[quote author=accu35 link=topic=60.msg4470#msg4470 date=1483044410]
So no map for the control?
Click to expand...

not great through day 12 outside tn.
eps_snow_c_east_49.png

[/quote]
Some guy in that small patch of 0 in NW Missouri is having a huge meltdown

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[/quote]
we should invite him to join the board and we can all meltdown together this weekend

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
[/quote]It's not like there is anything much around the hole though
 
tellicowx link said:
Looking at the EPS members, you can see which ones lose the system. There's no large swath across the OH valley or Plains to indicate a cutter, or large area just across NC to indicate a Miller B or CAD sig. To me it explains why the H5 looked better, but the mean didnt. This is also getting close to the timeframe the Euro sometimes has lost a system in the past.

d8cbb66c4b923c3d2308bc0a027edd46.jpg


c970e6a30783e29fcb736f8f98596352.jpg


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Click to expand...

Not sure I would use a snowfall map to determine if it lost the system or not.
 
WXinCanton link said:
[quote author=tellicowx link=topic=60.msg4490#msg4490 date=1483046601]
Looking at the EPS members, you can see which ones lose the system. There's no large swath across the OH valley or Plains to indicate a cutter, or large area just across NC to indicate a Miller B or CAD sig. To me it explains why the H5 looked better, but the mean didnt. This is also getting close to the timeframe the Euro sometimes has lost a system in the past.

d8cbb66c4b923c3d2308bc0a027edd46.jpg


c970e6a30783e29fcb736f8f98596352.jpg


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Click to expand...

Not sure I would use a snowfall map to determine if it lost the system or not.
[/quote]
I didn't lol..was just showing what caused the drop off in the mean. There is no precip in that timeframe, the system is held back or suppressed with a very large area of HP building in behind the front.

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WXinCanton link said:
[quote author=tellicowx link=topic=60.msg4490#msg4490 date=1483046601]
Looking at the EPS members, you can see which ones lose the system. There's no large swath across the OH valley or Plains to indicate a cutter, or large area just across NC to indicate a Miller B or CAD sig. To me it explains why the H5 looked better, but the mean didnt. This is also getting close to the timeframe the Euro sometimes has lost a system in the past.

d8cbb66c4b923c3d2308bc0a027edd46.jpg


c970e6a30783e29fcb736f8f98596352.jpg


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Click to expand...

Not sure I would use a snowfall map to determine if it lost the system or not.
[/quote]
I wouldn't use snowfall maps to determine that. It won't prove that, there would be winter wx at all because we're just not looking at snow here as the precipitation.

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NorthGAWinterWx link said:
[quote author=WXinCanton link=topic=60.msg4493#msg4493 date=1483047127]
[quote author=tellicowx link=topic=60.msg4490#msg4490 date=1483046601]
Looking at the EPS members, you can see which ones lose the system. There's no large swath across the OH valley or Plains to indicate a cutter, or large area just across NC to indicate a Miller B or CAD sig. To me it explains why the H5 looked better, but the mean didnt. This is also getting close to the timeframe the Euro sometimes has lost a system in the past.

d8cbb66c4b923c3d2308bc0a027edd46.jpg


c970e6a30783e29fcb736f8f98596352.jpg


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Click to expand...

Not sure I would use a snowfall map to determine if it lost the system or not.
[/quote]
I wouldn't use snowfall maps to determine that. It won't prove that, there would be winter wx at all because we're just not looking at snow here as the precipitation.

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[/quote]
There is no precip at all, cause the waves get crushed by a large HP building out of the plains behind the front.

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tellicowx link said:
[quote author=WXinCanton link=topic=60.msg4493#msg4493 date=1483047127]
[quote author=tellicowx link=topic=60.msg4490#msg4490 date=1483046601]
Looking at the EPS members, you can see which ones lose the system. There's no large swath across the OH valley or Plains to indicate a cutter, or large area just across NC to indicate a Miller B or CAD sig. To me it explains why the H5 looked better, but the mean didnt. This is also getting close to the timeframe the Euro sometimes has lost a system in the past.

d8cbb66c4b923c3d2308bc0a027edd46.jpg


c970e6a30783e29fcb736f8f98596352.jpg


Sent from my SM-S820L using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Not sure I would use a snowfall map to determine if it lost the system or not.
[/quote]
I didn't lol..was just showing what caused the drop off in the mean. There is no precip in that timeframe, the system is held back or suppressed with a very large area of HP building in behind the front.

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[/quote]

Lol, ok.  I was like huh
 
GFS para= $ !! Suppression city!! Moisture very far south! Looks like it wants to pop a low in the gulf, very cold in the 7-10th timeframe, and super-cold at Canada border, at the end!
 
Tarheel1 link said:
GFS para= $ !! Suppression city!! Moisture very far south! Looks like it wants to pop a low in the gulf, very cold in the 7-10th timeframe, and super-cold at Canada border, at the end!
Click to expand...

Much better blocking

gfsp_z500a_nhem_33.png
 
Re: January 2017 Discussion

Hmmm not a fan of the 18z gfs already.  Shortwave is closed over SW Oregon which may hold it back and help pop SE ridging

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Re: January 2017 Discussion

SD link said:
Hmmm not a fan of the 18z gfs already.  Shortwave is closed over SW Oregon which may hold it back and help pop SE ridging

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Maybe it'll slow up and let the cold get out in front?
 
Tarheel1 link said:
[quote author=SD link=topic=60.msg4501#msg4501 date=1483049360]
Hmmm not a fan of the 18z gfs already.  Shortwave is closed over SW Oregon which may hold it back and help pop SE ridging

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Maybe it'll slow up and let the cold get out in front?
[/quote]
Could...it's actually similar to 0z so far

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Heights are higher on the east coast so far. Need that energy in the lakes to dig and lay the groundwork

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Stormlover link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=60.msg4487#msg4487 date=1483046007]
[quote author=SD link=topic=60.msg4475#msg4475 date=1483044775]
[quote author=Shawn link=topic=60.msg4471#msg4471 date=1483044535]
[quote author=accu35 link=topic=60.msg4470#msg4470 date=1483044410]
So no map for the control?
Click to expand...

not great through day 12 outside tn.
eps_snow_c_east_49.png

[/quote]
Some guy in that small patch of 0 in NW Missouri is having a huge meltdown

Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk
[/quote]
we should invite him to join the board and we can all meltdown together this weekend

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
[/quote]It's not like there is anything much around the hole though
[/quote] That is what she said....  >:D
 
Gfs really trying to press with the vortex over the lakes. Shortwave going through the Ohio Valley might save is

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Tarheel1 link said:
GFS para= $ !! Suppression city!! Moisture very far south! Looks like it wants to pop a low in the gulf, very cold in the 7-10th timeframe, and super-cold at Canada border, at the end!
Click to expand...

Mack,
The 12Z para-GFS gives Waycross some kind of wintry precip. a week from tonight (1/5-6)! Imagine the meltdown here if that were to somehow occur and if not much falls further north.
 
18Z GFS:  A 2nd low is organizing in the western Gulf. Will it be cold enough?
 
I've been saying for days that a new low may come up along that frontal boundary.

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You gotta love the pieces of energy rotating around the Canadian vortex...gfs could have just about any solution you'd want

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GaWx link said:
[quote author=Tarheel1 link=topic=60.msg4499#msg4499 date=1483048626]
GFS para= $ !! Suppression city!! Moisture very far south! Looks like it wants to pop a low in the gulf, very cold in the 7-10th timeframe, and super-cold at Canada border, at the end!
Click to expand...

Mack,
The 12Z para-GFS gives Waycross some kind of wintry precip. a week from tonight (1/5-6)! Imagine the meltdown here if that were to somehow occur and if not much falls further north.
[/quote]

I'm probably the only person on here that would be in favor of such a thing. Does it show all of South Georgia getting something frozen falling from the sky?
 
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