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Pattern January 2017 Discussion

I drew the red line of where the frontal boundary is and circled the area of where the new LP will be coming up if this run holds true.
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WXinCanton link said:
Forget the NW Trend, fear it going poof.  We are talking way way out there.  I'm more interested in the earlier chance of some overrunning.
True


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WXinCanton link said:
Forget the NW Trend, fear it going poof.  We are talking way way out there. I'm more interested in the earlier chance of some overrunning.

If we can get a decent high in decent position for a hybrid CAD event, we'll definitely be in business.
 
Re: January 2017 Discussion

I'm much more interested in the wave next week vs the day 10 plus fantasy on the gfs .

clown maps of 288 storms are epic....epically incorrect

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Re: January 2017 Discussion

the 12z gefs is cranking out some big winter storms in the 8-11 day period

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Storm5 link said:
I'm much more interested in the wave next week vs the day 10 plus fantasy on the gfs .

clown maps of 288 storms are epic....epically incorrect

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Wouldn't be winter without them...


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Re: January 2017 Discussion

Storm5 link said:
I'm much more interested in the wave next week vs the day 10 plus fantasy on the gfs .

clown maps of 288 storms are epic....epically incorrect

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Yeah, I'm more interested in next Thu/Fri (Jan 5th/6th), that could possibly evolve into a nice surprise for many of us.
 
Storm5 link said:
I'm much more interested in the wave next week vs the day 10 plus fantasy on the gfs .

clown maps of 288 storms are epic....epically incorrect

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I am too, but that is the 2nd wave. It possibly could come up at the end of the frontal boundary.

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Weatherlover92 link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=60.msg3801#msg3801 date=1482945487]
I'm much more interested in the wave next week vs the day 10 plus fantasy on the gfs .

clown maps of 288 storms are epic....epically incorrect

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Yeah, I'm more interested in next Thu/Fri (Jan 5th/6th), that could possibly evolve into a nice surprise for many of us.
[/quote]
I'm interested in the whole 8-12 day window but let's not overlook what's first

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NorthGAWinterWx link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=60.msg3801#msg3801 date=1482945487]
I'm much more interested in the wave next week vs the day 10 plus fantasy on the gfs .

clown maps of 288 storms are epic....epically incorrect

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I am too, but that is the 2nd wave. It possibly could come up at the end of the frontal boundary.

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[/quote]
we are talking about two different waves
Storm5 link said:
[quote author=Weatherlover92 link=topic=60.msg3804#msg3804 date=1482945812]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=60.msg3801#msg3801 date=1482945487]
I'm much more interested in the wave next week vs the day 10 plus fantasy on the gfs .

clown maps of 288 storms are epic....epically incorrect

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Yeah, I'm more interested in next Thu/Fri (Jan 5th/6th), that could possibly evolve into a nice surprise for many of us.
[/quote]
I'm interested in the whole 8-12 day window but let's not overlook what's first

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[/quote]


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whatalife link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=60.msg3801#msg3801 date=1482945487]
I'm much more interested in the wave next week vs the day 10 plus fantasy on the gfs .

clown maps of 288 storms are epic....epically incorrect

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Wouldn't be winter without them...


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[/quote]
That GFS map, looked like the DGEX!!!! Speaking of DGEX, can't wait to see those! Then you know it's winter!
 
Tarheel1 link said:
[quote author=whatalife link=topic=60.msg3803#msg3803 date=1482945768]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=60.msg3801#msg3801 date=1482945487]
I'm much more interested in the wave next week vs the day 10 plus fantasy on the gfs .

clown maps of 288 storms are epic....epically incorrect

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Wouldn't be winter without them...


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[/quote]
That GFS map, looked like the DGEX!!!! Speaking of DGEX, can't wait to see those! Then you know it's winter!
[/quote]

Just took a look at the good ole' dgex from 06z and it's boring.  It only goes to 192 though.
 
wait, a clown map that puts about 14" IMBY???  It is FINALLY winter!

in reality, I'll see .07" liquid
 
Re: January 2017 Discussion

I know it's two different waves. It's important of how the first wave comes about to see if that 2nd wave comes up along that frontal boundary. I somewhat lost my interest on the first wave cause the GFS is showing it will be a lake cutter from the past 2-3 runs. I'm more focused on rather or not the 2nd wave will come up along that frontal boundary. If a low comes up from the FB we would get more snow cause it will be colder  and there will be more moisture.

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NorthGAWinterWx link said:
I know it's two different waves. It's important of how the first wave comes about to see if that 2nd wave comes up along that frontal boundary. I somewhat lost my interest on the first wave cause the GFS is showing it will be a lake cutter from the past 2-3 runs. I'm more focused on rather or not the 2nd wave will come up along that frontal boundary.

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I'm not talking about the lakes cutter at all. it's the whiff the gfs has after that at day 8 . the same wave the cmc has . there could easily be two waves outside of any cutter 
343bff0512e9063fce35e6ca9d25d082.jpg


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Re: January 2017 Discussion

Lol gfs holding rdu near 10 all day on Jan 10th

Nvm just saw the text and it's at 31 for the high...tricky maps

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Storm5 link said:
[quote author=NorthGAWinterWx link=topic=60.msg3811#msg3811 date=1482947148]
I know it's two different waves. It's important of how the first wave comes about to see if that 2nd wave comes up along that frontal boundary. I somewhat lost my interest on the first wave cause the GFS is showing it will be a lake cutter from the past 2-3 runs. I'm more focused on rather or not the 2nd wave will come up along that frontal boundary.

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I'm not talking about the lakes cutter at all. it's the whiff the gfs has after that at day 8 . the same wave the cmc has . there could easily be two waves outside of any cutter 
343bff0512e9063fce35e6ca9d25d082.jpg


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[/quote]
Yes, I saw that, I'm still more focused on that possible 2nd wave, cause it forms at the end of the frontal boundary, plus it could come up from the Gulf, and we know what Gulf lows can do. That first wave could give the Carolinas some winter wx and then it's gone out to the Atlantic following that cutter.

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Re: January 2017 Discussion

NorthGAWinterWx link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=60.msg3812#msg3812 date=1482947446]
[quote author=NorthGAWinterWx link=topic=60.msg3811#msg3811 date=1482947148]
I know it's two different waves. It's important of how the first wave comes about to see if that 2nd wave comes up along that frontal boundary. I somewhat lost my interest on the first wave cause the GFS is showing it will be a lake cutter from the past 2-3 runs. I'm more focused on rather or not the 2nd wave will come up along that frontal boundary.

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I'm not talking about the lakes cutter at all. it's the whiff the gfs has after that at day 8 . the same wave the cmc has . there could easily be two waves outside of any cutter 
343bff0512e9063fce35e6ca9d25d082.jpg


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[/quote]
Yes, I saw that, I'm still more focused on that possible 2nd wave, cause it forms at the end of the frontal boundary, plus it could come up from the Gulf, and we know what Gulf lows can do. That first wave could give the Carolinas some winter wx and then it's gone out to the Atlantic following that cutter.

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[/quote]
gulf lows cause way too many issues. I'd much rather have an overrunning event vs a gulf low . gulf lows will screw many with WAA and track issues

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Re: January 2017 Discussion

Oh yeah, I agree Storm5. That 2nd wave does have WAA from today's 12z GFS and there is overrunning. For me, a Gulf low would be good for my area, not so good for area's in the eastern parts of the Carolina's.

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Re: January 2017 Discussion

I'm at work and just  was catching up on the 12z GFS. That OP run just showed to some extent what the GEFS and even the Euro has hinted at in the meteograms for my area over the last few runs of a LP developing along the front behind the first system. I wouldn't write off that clown map completely. Anything from an Apps runner to Miller A could be possible during that period.

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