The 6z op GFS, kind of has that " turd in a punch bowl " kind of look!
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Pattern January 2017 Discussion
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whatalife
Moderator
all you need is for the euro to be just a little slower with the energy and you get your wishStorm5 link said:
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lol yeah. the gfs and cmc are colder out front because they have the through established where as the euro is a little slower in establishing the cold. So if the euro would just hang onto the energy a little longer and let the cold push finish establishing you would have your wish
of course the gfs op solution is it what we want with such a strong push of cold. thankfully the gefs does not support that idea
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True...
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accu35
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man this makes the OP gfs look bad lol.there is so much support with the gefs showing winter weather. This is the kind of setup of models we liketellicowx link said:
6z GFS OP didn't look so great, but GEFS actually looked a little better imo
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WXinCanton
Member
Tarheel1 link said:
How so?
WXinCanton link said:
How so?
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If you like, then it's all good
I'm not a big fan of those GEFS total snowfall maps. They seem way over done and inaccurate. But, some of those do give you an idea of where the snowfall maybe. E8 looks realistic for the location of the snowfall but not snowfall amounts. E18 also looks realistic. I'm dreaming of the E16 panel. Lol.
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MichaelJ
Member
Tarheel1 link said:
How so?
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If you like, then it's all good
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I would not worry too much about the op, the GEFS ensembles look different by quite a bit and have every run
Flurry
Member
tellicowx link said:
Would not surprise me at all
Re: January 2017 Discussion
Also, what we're missing is the snow pack to the north and west. No snow pack, equals, temperature moderation. If there was snow pack to the north and west that would help out on the colder temps.
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Also, what we're missing is the snow pack to the north and west. No snow pack, equals, temperature moderation. If there was snow pack to the north and west that would help out on the colder temps.
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
It definitely bothers me to see the southern edge of the snowpack displaced so far to the north with this system ~D9, a storm going into the lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley would probably be more favored in this instance with the snowpack sitting ~I-90 corridor & this is supported by the general z500 configuration. I'd prefer to have the southern periphery of the snowpack at least somewhere around or south of the I-70 corridor to get a classic southern slider/I-40 crusher... For the longevity of this pattern it probably wouldn't hurt to see a bigger snowpack directly to our north and northwest, because even if this verifies, we'd likely have to immediately hit the reset button thereafter because there wouldn't be a whole lot of snow on the ground to refrigerate and hold in the cold that comes down, in essence, any arctic airmass that infiltrates into the SE US would spend more than half of its journey in the US over barren ground.
I am overall pretty excited about the upcoming pattern evolution. As I said yesterday I believe the potential is there for a decent event but I have fears about how the pacific ridge evolves and its down stream effects on the US. It could end up too far east and suppress the pattern or too far west and cause a SE ridge type response. Obviously there looks to be a little blocking in eastern Canada and the north Atlantic which may help keep the SE ridge from really popping up too much in the 1/6-10 period and may allow us to have our best chance. I am about ready to set up the drum set
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I guess on the flip side of things, this shortwave will be propagating thru the western & southwestern US which are loaded w/ snow compared to average. Often preceding SE US wintry wx threats w/ a +PNA, this area of the country will be fairly warm and barren with snow minus the Sierra-Nevada and higher peaks in CO... At least that's working in our favor.
The Euro MJO projection continues to keep it at low amplitude within the circle for the next 10-12 or so days, which tends to favor cold in the SE US as long as it isn't in phases 4-5. After 12 days, it looks to possibly go to phases 4-5 within the circle, which tends to be a nonsignal (averaging near normal).
Storm5
Member
so to your snowcover point , does it not help that the wave appears to becoming on the front end of the cold push. to me that's better because if we had the cold push then had 2-3 days where we were waiting for a system we would no doubt have to worry about snowcover to help keep things from moderating . I get what your saying but does it not help that it seems to be a front end system ?Webberweather53 link said:
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Storm5
Member
12z gfs is overwhelming
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Good! Really right where you want it at this point! Crazy different from 6zStorm5 link said:
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
so to your snowcover point , does it not help that the wave appears to becoming on the front end of the cold push. to me that's better because if we had the cold push then had 2-3 days where we were waiting for a system we would no doubt have to worry about snowcover to help keep things from moderating . I get what your saying but does it not help that it seems to be a front end system ?Storm5 link said:
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Yea we have to hit the timing of this shortwave to the oncoming cold push right on the $$ to score, or else it cuts to the Lakes &/or OH Valley. What I'm saying is that relative to other storms that crush the southeastern US, the snowpack to our north is going to be a tad below average (barring that the storm in front of it doesnt track further south), although it will be somewhat counterbalanced by the AN snowpack in the west that this shortwave will be progressing over. The 12z GFS is too suppressed but has some SN/IP breaking out in south-central TX by D9. That's a good place to be @ this range imo.