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Pattern January 2017 Discussion

There's a banter thread, yes??
 
Tarheel1 link said:
There's a banter thread, yes??
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Yeah, we' will get it cleaned up/tossed over there later.
 
Storm5 link said:
[quote author=ARCC link=topic=60.msg3674#msg3674 date=1482879233]
I like the idea of the broad based trough. We need it to dig more before the s/w buries out west. Definite overrunning threat should the cards fall right.
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Yeah but there has to be concerns about where the trough axis sets up. could be too far West to where the front stalls just NW of the region . that would put Arkansas and Missouri in the sweet spot

really want the NAO to be legit . but we did well in 2014 without one . one thing is pretty certain. the epo will not be the issue 

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[/quote]

I'd much rather have the +PNA in our pocket than the -NAO.
 
Re: January 2017 Discussion

ARCC link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=60.msg3677#msg3677 date=1482880169]
[quote author=ARCC link=topic=60.msg3674#msg3674 date=1482879233]
I like the idea of the broad based trough. We need it to dig more before the s/w buries out west. Definite overrunning threat should the cards fall right.
Click to expand...
Yeah but there has to be concerns about where the trough axis sets up. could be too far West to where the front stalls just NW of the region . that would put Arkansas and Missouri in the sweet spot

really want the NAO to be legit . but we did well in 2014 without one . one thing is pretty certain. the epo will not be the issue 

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[/quote]

I'd much rather have the +PNA in our pocket than the -NAO.
[/quote]
I agree 100 percent but that's not an option over the next 14 days. so I'd rather have the epo and nao vs just the epo 

but I'm sure we find a way to screw both of them up

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One big thing to watch for is do we end up with a solid EPO ridge or does it pinch off. If it pinches off you will split the Pacific jet and get a good subtropical jet underneath the ridge. If the ridge is strong enough and the main trough deep enough, it is good. If the ridge pinches off too far north, that undercutting will contaminate the Arctic air with Pacific and it will be much harder to get a board wide snow storm. The 18z GFS was in the group that pinches it off.
 
ARCC link said:
One big thing to watch for is do we end up with a solid EPO ridge or does it pinch off. If it pinches off you will split the Pacific jet and get a good subtropical jet underneath the ridge. If the ridge is strong enough and the main trough deep enough, it is good. If the ridge pinches off too far north, that undercutting will contaminate the Arctic air with Pacific and it will be much harder to get a board wide snow storm. The 18z GFS was in the group that pinches it off.
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As is the case with most Alaskan & northeastern Pacific high-latitude blocks, that's liable to happen at some point down the line, likely within 1-2 weeks, unless another ACWB event reinforces this high-latitude block. As I've mentioned a few times on here, a large proportion of -WPO regimes usually initiate as eddy-driven NE Pac/AK mid-upper level ridges that gain maximum amplification in the EPO domain, split off from the mean flow, become under cut by the pacific jet & progressively retrograde westward with time towards Bering Sea & far eastern Siberia. Therefore, we can also conclude that in such a pattern progression, -WPOs tend to lag -EPOs, and (esp during cool neutral &/or NINA events), the southeastern US ridge would tend to gradually gain amplitude and poleward extent as the north Pacific ridge retrogrades westward from Alaska to eastern Siberia.
 
tellicowx link said:
[quote author=HartselleWeather link=topic=60.msg3680#msg3680 date=1482882168]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=60.msg3679#msg3679 date=1482881312]
18z gefs looks much better vs the op

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I bet there is some nice individual members also.
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Here's the individual members

c975a491f60ef05b1779284b53f4cfe9.jpg


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I'm taking the e4 member and I'd be satisfied with the winter if that actually verified....LOL!
 
Webber is light years ahead of my knowledge, but what I took away from his last post is he sees the SE ridge getting stronger going forward??
 
Tarheel1 link said:
Webber is light years ahead of my knowledge, but what I took away from his last post is he sees the SE ridge getting stronger going forward??
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of course. late jan into feb will likely warm if you want to believe historic data. sucks.
 
This is the 18z DGEX model, not a popular used model but the DGEX is a higher resolution "a stepped up" version of the GFS. This is at hr 192, rain/snow line moving SE as the moisture spreads from west to east.
785bdc941051420629bb33dad408fd24.jpg


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NorthGAWinterWx link said:
This is the 18z DGEX model, not a popular used model but the DGEX is a higher resolution "a stepped up" version of the GFS. This is at hr 192, rain/snow line moving SE as the moisture spreads from west to east.

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Isn't the DGEX just the NAM extrapolated with GFS model conditions though?  I can't remember the last time it was even close to being right.  Even the NAM past 48 hours is a crapshoot in my experience.
 
Shawn link said:
[quote author=NorthGAWinterWx link=topic=60.msg3708#msg3708 date=1482897109]
This is the 18z DGEX model, not a popular used model but the DGEX is a higher resolution "a stepped up" version of the GFS. This is at hr 192, rain/snow line moving SE as the moisture spreads from west to east.

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Isn't the DGEX just the NAM extrapolated with GFS model conditions though?  I can't remember the last time it was even close to being right.  Even the NAM past 48 hours is a crapshoot in my experience.
[/quote]
Its a extend version of the NAM model.
 
HartselleWeather link said:
[quote author=Shawn link=topic=60.msg3709#msg3709 date=1482897371]
[quote author=NorthGAWinterWx link=topic=60.msg3708#msg3708 date=1482897109]
This is the 18z DGEX model, not a popular used model but the DGEX is a higher resolution "a stepped up" version of the GFS. This is at hr 192, rain/snow line moving SE as the moisture spreads from west to east.

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Click to expand...



Isn't the DGEX just the NAM extrapolated with GFS model conditions though?  I can't remember the last time it was even close to being right.  Even the NAM past 48 hours is a crapshoot in my experience.
[/quote]
Its a extend version of the NAM model.

[/quote]

Well, I guess NOAA run it for a reason.  Not sure if it is good for us in the SE, maybe its a bigger city thing?  It can't always be wrong though.. I guess. :p
 
Shawn link said:
[quote author=NorthGAWinterWx link=topic=60.msg3708#msg3708 date=1482897109]
This is the 18z DGEX model, not a popular used model but the DGEX is a higher resolution "a stepped up" version of the GFS. This is at hr 192, rain/snow line moving SE as the moisture spreads from west to east.

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Isn't the DGEX just the NAM extrapolated with GFS model conditions though?  I can't remember the last time it was even close to being right.  Even the NAM past 48 hours is a crapshoot in my experience.
[/quote]
There is model agreement with the GFS and DGEX at this point, so the DGEX can be accurate if there is model agreement. I use the DGEX model to back up model agreement with the popular used models. 

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0z GFS is putting the low way further north...not this again? The trough isn't digging down far enough on that run. And also, the 0z run doesn't look right. Two strong lows, one off the coast and another one just north of the OH river? The 0z GFS must of had it's vodka before the New Yr. Lol.

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NorthGAWinterWx link said:
0z GFS is putting the low way further north...not this again? The trough isn't digging down far enough on that run. And also, the 0z run doesn't look right. Two strong lows, one off the coast and another one just north of the OH river? The 0z GFS must of had it's vodka before the New Yr. Lol.

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Looks fine to me. The 500 mb maps look improved
 
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