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Pattern January 2017 Discussion

SimeonNC link said:
[quote author=tellicowx link=topic=60.msg4225#msg4225 date=1483011305]
Holy GEFS mean......

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Can you post any other of the individual members?
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Getting a nice thunderstorm here this morning  :lightningbolt... Old wives' tale supports us getting a winter storm within 9-10 days...  :snowflake:
 
tellicowx link said:
Storms gonna love the steps the EPS took I think. Clown map for the control is way under done imo. It took an almost Miller A path, just a tad inland. But overall definitely a step in the right direction.

EPS mean
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Control clown
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Holy hell !!!

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E4 member looks more realistic for the first wave, E9 looks realistic for the 2nd wave and some other members from the GEFS.

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Interesting 06z GFS run, looks like a series of waves are poping up. It's getting better.

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Storm5 link said:
e396cbe9dbafb0ea948ae6b47d5b7f40.jpg


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I see that the 0z Euro is holding it's ground, that's good news.

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4 runs in a row on the ECMWF.... We'll see if we can make it 5 today. Although this threat is 8-9 days out, that's pretty remarkable run-to-run consistency.

12z December 27th
ecmwf_ptype_conus2_41.png


0z yesterday
ecmwf_ptype_conus2_382.png


12z yesterday
ecmwf_ptype_conus2_40.png


Latest run
ecmwf_ptype_conus2_38.png
 
snowman72 link said:
That latest run isn't good for me
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We still have a long ways to go brotha. Don't take what you see for granted this early in time.

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NorthGAWinterWx link said:
[quote author=snowman72 link=topic=60.msg4236#msg4236 date=1483017355]
That latest run isn't good for me
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We still have a long ways to go brotha. Don't take what you see for granted this early in time.

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[/quote]

Confused on that one.  Lol
 
OTD in 1997, a large early-season winter storm during the 1997-98 super NINO winter smacked the western piedmont and mountains of North Carolina. Snowfall totals in excess of 6" were commonplace from the Triad area & points northwestward, with up to 1-1.5 feet of snow reported in the higher elevations of the mountains.
Dec-29-31-1997-Snowmap-NC.png
 
WXinCanton link said:
[quote author=NorthGAWinterWx link=topic=60.msg4237#msg4237 date=1483018010]
[quote author=snowman72 link=topic=60.msg4236#msg4236 date=1483017355]
That latest run isn't good for me
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We still have a long ways to go brotha. Don't take what you see for granted this early in time.

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[/quote]

Confused on that one.  Lol
[/quote]
Haha, just in case his hopes were giving up. Don't let one run shatter your hopes.

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Webberweather53 link said:
OTD in 1997, a large early-season winter storm during the 1997-98 super NINO winter smacked the western piedmont and mountains of North Carolina. Snowfall totals in excess of 6" were commonplace from the Triad area & points northwestward, with up to 1-1.5 feet of snow reported in the higher elevations of the mountains.
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Oooo I remember this one for some reason. Flipped to snow for like an hour and it coated everything...then it was gone
 
whatalife link said:
[quote author=packfan98 link=topic=60.msg4239#msg4239 date=1483019403]
FWIW, the DGEX looks good at the end of its run.
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LOL!



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Good ol DGEX, it has the snow finger pointing to the Carolina's.

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The DGEX, has that classic, southern winter storm to it!! Seems to be aligning pretty well with the other models!
 
SD link said:
I'm going to need the Euro to come back south....the 0z run looks like a sleet fest here
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Yeah, it gets too much snow up towards the Ohio valley area and not looking as flat/suppressed! GEM, is kind of on board. One wave Fri/Sat, some frozen on N/W side.
 
Tarheel1 link said:
[quote author=SD link=topic=60.msg4247#msg4247 date=1483021112]
I'm going to need the Euro to come back south....the 0z run looks like a sleet fest here
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Yeah, it gets too much snow up towards the Ohio valley area and not looking as flat/suppressed! GEM, is kind of on board. One wave Fri/Sat, some frozen on N/W side.
[/quote]

I havent looked at much on the Euro other than the precip maps. I am guessing its not as strong with the lead wave in the northern stream so it allows this system to sneak northward. I will actually take my chances on this coming back south a bit...
 
The Euro brings the precip farther north than the 06z GFS. Seems like the 06z GFS is trying to suppress the moisture. We should have more and more model agreement here on out. It's becoming into the 5-7 day window.

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Great to see the threat still showing up. The potential is still there. Just have to work out the details now the next week.
 
Being in the northern upstate, I would take that dgex look and call it a winter. That's about as perfect a track as one could get for the Carolinas.
 
[/quote]

I havent looked at much on the Euro other than the precip maps. I am guessing its not as strong with the lead wave in the northern stream so it allows this system to sneak northward. I will actually take my chances on this coming back south a bit...
[/quote]

I don't think that is much of stretch, with the blocking depicted it very well could trend a little south IMO
 
12z GFS will be starting to come out...might want to hang on to your chair tightly cause the 12z GFS may be the best run yet. We'll see, I'm already feeling the rush lol.

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SD link said:
[quote author=Webberweather53 link=topic=60.msg4240#msg4240 date=1483019496]
OTD in 1997, a large early-season winter storm during the 1997-98 super NINO winter smacked the western piedmont and mountains of North Carolina. Snowfall totals in excess of 6" were commonplace from the Triad area & points northwestward, with up to 1-1.5 feet of snow reported in the higher elevations of the mountains.
Click to expand...

Oooo I remember this one for some reason. Flipped to snow for like an hour and it coated everything...then it was gone
[/quote]

Interesting... As usual, Fayetteville got jipped...  :'(
 
Early, early call on the GFS , like the low back in AZ on Sun, could be our first wave, let's see where we go!?
 
Tarheel1 link said:
Early, early call on the GFS , like the low back in AZ on Sun, could be our first wave, let's see where we go!?
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that should be the early week cutter

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Storm5 link said:
[quote author=Tarheel1 link=topic=60.msg4266#msg4266 date=1483026919]
Early, early call on the GFS , like the low back in AZ on Sun, could be our first wave, let's see where we go!?
Click to expand...
that should be the early week cutter

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[/quote]
Yeah, your right! I'm a little overly excited! Hopefully it's a powerhouse, and brings the cold!!
 
Storm5 link said:
[quote author=SD link=topic=60.msg4247#msg4247 date=1483021112]
I'm going to need the Euro to come back south....the 0z run looks like a sleet fest here
Click to expand...
nothing wrong with a sleet fest

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[/quote]
  Yes, indeed!!!  Lets you know it's falling, and sticks around for a good long while :) Give me 6 inches of sleet any day.  T
 
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