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Pattern January 2017 Discussion
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
The EPS based MJO prediction once again looks favorable for SE cold with about the best possible path one would want inside the left side of the circle. Also, the AO is falling in tandem. That's a very nice combo to see if one likes cold.
Storm5
Member
Yeah but there has to be concerns about where the trough axis sets up. could be too far West to where the front stalls just NW of the region . that would put Arkansas and Missouri in the sweet spotARCC link said:
really want the NAO to be legit . but we did well in 2014 without one . one thing is pretty certain. the epo will not be the issue
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CummingWx
Guest
David in SW Blount link said:
That was so weird. I live 25 miles north of downtown Birmingham, and we had 6-8 inches in my community. You could literally see the accumulations drop off as you drove south out of my neighborhood. The cutoff between heavy snow and little to none was unreal.
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Not to bring this threat off-topic but that storm was a real letdown for my area. I live about 45 miles NNE of the ATL Airport and was expecting about 3-6+ inches and would up with maybe an inch at the very best, although I was much luckier than areas just to my south who were expecting alot too and got dusting amounts. A real letdown here, especially in Atlanta though. The drive south even half a mile was significantly less snowfall. But I can't imagine the dropoff in your area that got tons more snow.
Storm5
Member
18z gefs looks much better vs the op
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HartselleWeather
Guest
I bet there is some nice individual members also.Storm5 link said:
WilkesboroDude
Member
no there would ice below that around bham and atlanta verbatim on the control run
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verbatim there will be a north-west trend to make it rain for non-climo areas like Atlanta. Could be looking at something for NC/Va tho.
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verbatim there will be a north-west trend to make it rain for non-climo areas like Atlanta. Could be looking at something for NC/Va tho.
Alright, I wanted to make a map, so I came up with a notice map. It is not a forecast map, it's a map to give us an ideal of the direction of where the setup is headed. Based off of previous runs and current runs, I shaded the probable area's of winter wx from the possible upcoming event. Of course, the rain snow line would need to be adjusted with it being this far out. A lot of areas are looking like it will start of as all rain. At this time, it's looking like Birmingham, ATL, far upstate SC up through Charlotte, NC and Raleigh would be ZR and maybe IP at times. Then again, those area's may not see any winter wx at all.
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New Years Eve night is cutting it close if temp trends continue downward. Forecast high for Saturday now 46 with a low of 36. Third time it's went colder today.
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CummingWx
Guest
NorthGAWinterWx link said:Alright, I wanted to make a map, so I came up with a notice map. It is not a forecast map, it's a map to give us an ideal of the direction of where the setup is headed. Based off of previous runs and current runs, I shaded the probable area's of winter wx from the possible upcoming event. Of course, the rain snow line would need to be adjusted with it being this far out. A lot of areas are looking like it will start of as all rain. At this time, it's looking like Birmingham, ATL, far upstate SC up through Charlotte, NC and Raleigh would be ZR and maybe IP at times. Then again, those area's may not see any winter wx at all.
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I am just a few miles south of your while area. Can you edit just to make me happy? lol jk hopefully we'll be looking at these chances come to fruition.
Snowman63
Member
NorthGAWinterWx link said:Alright, I wanted to make a map, so I came up with a notice map. It is not a forecast map, it's a map to give us an ideal of the direction of where the setup is headed. Based off of previous runs and current runs, I shaded the probable area's of winter wx from the possible upcoming event. Of course, the rain snow line would need to be adjusted with it being this far out. A lot of areas are looking like it will start of as all rain. At this time, it's looking like Birmingham, ATL, far upstate SC up through Charlotte, NC and Raleigh would be ZR and maybe IP at times. Then again, those area's may not see any winter wx at all.
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As of now, the I40 corridor Little Rock to Memphis to Nashville looks good.
I bet there is some nice individual members also.tellicowx link said:
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Here's the individual members
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Could really see E8, being the closest to the final solution, as of now
Jon
Member
I bet there is some nice individual members also.tellicowx link said:
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Here's the individual members
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I got Ryan to as a NCarolina view if you wanna zoom in
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CummingWx
Guest
MBell link said:
My NWS forecast for Saturday is 51 with 40 saturday night. Not sure what you're looking at. I'm a tad bit farther north than you. I doubt we see anything but rain from this system
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CummingWx link said:
My NWS forecast for Saturday is 51 with 40 saturday night. Not sure what you're looking at. I'm a tad bit farther north than you. I doubt we see anything but rain from this system
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Mine is off the weather.com app on the iPhone. I haven't looked at NWS until now. It shows 50/40.
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Temps will be quite cool as the moisture moves in. Some areas in MNTS could start off as some light ZR Sat. night but it will be very brief. Temps come up overnight New Years Eve into New Years day. Most of GA will be in the lower 40s by day break New Years day and the temps continue to rise. This is from the GFS.MBell link said:
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Here's to Jan! My Birthday is Jan 6th...so let's wrangle one in for my 32nd! I'll be like oprah...you get a inch, you get a inch, you get a inch, everyone gets an inch! Lmao!
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whatalife
Moderator
HAHA!MBell link said:
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CummingWx
Guest
MBell link said:
But, but, but, I want more than a inch! You are greedy as oprah, lmao!