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Pattern January 2017 Discussion

00z gfs gives up on the Atlantic side yet again like 18z . Have to see if the ensembles agree or disagree but that's a concern for sure

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cmc goes nuts with blocking. Hopefully the gfs is being the gfs and the gefs will look better on the Atlantic side

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Storm5 link said:
cmc goes nuts with blocking. Hopefully the gfs is being the gfs and the gefs will look better on the Atlantic side

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I'm a noob but isn't the shortwave that dives SE and the closes off of the coast.. strange. Doesn't seem like something usual
 
Re: January 2017 Discussion

Brent link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=60.msg3716#msg3716 date=1482900200]
good lord the cmc goes deep freezer

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when isn't the CMC cold lol
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to be fair the gfs was colder this run as well


but yes it does have a cold bias it seems
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You know...when Alaska and Maine are scoring with Blizzard conditions the pattern just isn't ripe for the Carolinas! They need to roast and be in a drought for us to see ABN snow.
 
It definitely appears that most of the country will be cold by next weekend. Several shots of much needed rainfall too in the SE.


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WilkesboroDude link said:
You know...when Alaska and Maine are scoring with Blizzard conditions the pattern just isn't ripe for the Carolinas! They need to roast and be in a drought for us to see ABN snow.
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No, but nice try. You have that all wrong in regards to Maine. We get out best winter storms when Maine is shivering with -20C 850's or below. Alaska is a different story. We want to see a ridge there.
 
Euro looks like a winter storm here in DFW next Thursday wow

Not quite for most of AL/GA it appears. Muscle Shoals looks good, Huntsville maybe. Memphis gets a LOT of frozen precip on the meteogram. Mostly if not all rain in Birmingham/Atlanta

It appears to be largely snow where it's frozen on the WxBell maps

On the clown map on Accuwx it appears some "snow" falls down to around Cullman with an inch or so near the TN border. 6" band along I-40 from Little Rock to Nashville and almost down to the MS/AL border(tight gradient) and 8" in Eastern Tennessee
 
9e2a9edfbb0567ceed3a1c63a6027863.jpg


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SimeonNC link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=60.msg3731#msg3731 date=1482916322]
Holy eps

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Can you post the mean or any of the individual members?
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Huge mean increase
a64d0a37ec23e36a5119db8411f79d3e.jpg


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6z GFS OP didn't look so great, but GEFS actually looked a little better imo

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Man can you imagine if we get the system the Euro is modeling w/the tempts the GFS and CMC are modeling during that same time frame...Wishful thinking I'm sure...LOL!


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whatalife link said:
Man can you imagine if we get the system the Euro is modeling w/the tempts the GFS and CMC are modeling during that same time frame...Wishful thinking I'm sure...LOL!


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all you need is for the euro to be just a little slower with the energy and you get your wish

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Storm5 link said:
[quote author=whatalife link=topic=60.msg3736#msg3736 date=1482928440]
Man can you imagine if we get the system the Euro is modeling w/the tempts the GFS and CMC are modeling during that same time frame...Wishful thinking I'm sure...LOL!


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all you need is for the euro to be just a little slower with the energy and you get your wish

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Re: January 2017 Discussion

whatalife link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=60.msg3737#msg3737 date=1482930106]
[quote author=whatalife link=topic=60.msg3736#msg3736 date=1482928440]
Man can you imagine if we get the system the Euro is modeling w/the tempts the GFS and CMC are modeling during that same time frame...Wishful thinking I'm sure...LOL!


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all you need is for the euro to be just a little slower with the energy and you get your wish

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[/quote]
15b0e1506c50898d779f58f8080763eb.jpg



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lol yeah. the gfs and cmc are colder out front  because they have the through established where as the euro is a little slower in establishing the cold. So if the euro would just hang onto the energy a little longer and let the cold push finish establishing you would have your wish

of course the gfs op solution is it what we want with such a strong push of cold. thankfully the gefs does not support that idea

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