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Pattern January 2017 Discussion

lol
f7c41143fd756b5c33cc3b863b3018ea.jpg


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Storm5 link said:
let's see where this goes
52461077db50bc7799492bceb15d0f51.jpg


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There should be a 2nd wave coming up after that, I'm more focused on the 2nd wave.

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Shawn link said:
This is why we don't make storm threads outside 3 or 4 days.  Hopefully it comes back/EPS keeps hope alive.
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at some point within a week you need to separate a time frame from the rest of the month, so 3 or 4 days isn't enough, imo
 
Re: January 2017 Discussion

NorthGAWinterWx link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=60.msg4377#msg4377 date=1483036623]
let's see where this goes
52461077db50bc7799492bceb15d0f51.jpg


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There should be a 2nd wave coming up after that, I'm more focused on the 2nd wave.

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[/quote]
it does not matter how waves there are if that SER flexes like that. you could have 100 waves and they would all suck

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No block/ No 50/50 = Cutter city. SER will flex without those two.

00z
2aac5135fe502aabd042213ff1843536.jpg


12z
06da256e5c786e8172598ffab6e2b031.jpg


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Hope it's a hiccup, because that run is night and day from the previous Euro run and even the GFS.
 
SoutheastRidge link said:
Why do I get the feeling this is going to end up being an Indiana/Ohio storm ?
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Your username is bad luck.  :p
 
I got nothing to add that's for sure... no block and the se ridge is brutal.  That's a significant change in one run, let's see what the eps has to say.
 
Re: January 2017 Discussion

I'll have to take a look at the Euro when I get home. I'm not buying that 12z Euro so far of what I've been seeing posted.

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Well that sucks.  Good news is we are still 7 days out...bad news is in this part of the world they rarely trend back

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tellicowx link said:
No block/ No 50/50 = Cutter city. SER will flex without those two.

00z
2aac5135fe502aabd042213ff1843536.jpg


12z
06da256e5c786e8172598ffab6e2b031.jpg


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Yeah if the 12z is the actual look, we might as well forget it with a major winter storm.
 
Brick Tamland link said:
[quote author=SoutheastRidge link=topic=60.msg4409#msg4409 date=1483037686]
Why do I get the feeling this is going to end up being an Indiana/Ohio storm ?
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Your username is bad luck.  :p
[/quote] It may be bad luck but I think it's appropriate.
 
SD link said:
Well that sucks.  Good news is we are still 7 days out...bad news is in this part of the world they rarely trend back

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agree

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accu35 link said:
[quote author=WXinCanton link=topic=60.msg4421#msg4421 date=1483038209]
Ensembles at this range.
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when do they come out?
[/quote] Euro that is
 
so the 12z gfs introduced a ser, the 12z gefs introduced a SER and the 12z euro introduced a SER. 12z runs were not good .

it's like holding on to slippery rope hanging from a 50 story building

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That run is very realistic, IF the block doesn't setup or hold causing the first lakes cutter to act like a 50/50. The SER will have just enough time to respond and flex between the systems and cut each wave. It's just an OP run and at this range there is going to be some big swings. Watch the Ensembles, not the OPs.

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Hopefully, the Euro ensembles will say the op is out to lunch.
 
SD link said:
Well that sucks.  Good news is we are still 7 days out...bad news is in this part of the world they rarely trend back

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So true but seems we've seen the Euro struggle this year at this range, don't remember specifics but seems there have been a couple of times one day it showed 60+ a week out only to show 40's very next run for that time frame.  Now if it has ensemble support might be time to worry but the gefs looked great and so I'm going with this is just a hiccup for now
 
Storm5 link said:
so the 12z gfs introduced a ser, the 12z gefs introduced a SER and the 12z euro introduced a SER. 12z runs were not good .

it's like holding on to slippery rope hanging from a 50 story building

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The SER scenario has been there in  some of the GEFS and EPS members. I think Webber mentioned this yesterday. The OPs I take with a grain of salt at this range.

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Let me preface this by saying these are the model outputs for snow from YESTERDAY's 12z runs for the GFS and Euro.


podLUH4yp

GFS 12z from yesterday

poIh6ECxp

Euro 12z from yesterday


It's still way too early to make assumptions of what's going to happen with this storm. We'll see what happens, but I'm definitely not writing this one off yet. If it continues to trend worse through Saturday/Sunday, you can start to throw the red flags up.
 
Re: January 2017 Discussion

after the weenie run last night on the 00z eps , I don't even want to look at the 12z run. It can't beat last night

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Re: January 2017 Discussion

Storm5 link said:
after the weenie run last night on the 00z eps , I don't even want to look at the 12z run. It can't beat last night

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I don't blame you, just pointing out the rapid changes in the models in a 24 hour period.
 
nam0806 link said:
Let me preface this by saying these are the model outputs for snow from YESTERDAY's 12z runs for the GFS and Euro.


podLUH4yp

GFS 12z from yesterday

poIh6ECxp

Euro 12z from yesterday


It's still way too early to make assumptions of what's going to happen with this storm. We'll see what happens, but I'm definitely not writing this one off yet. If it looks like this on Saturday/Sunday, you can start to throw the red flags up.
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Agreed, we have lots of other runs to go through in the coming days. What ever we have the most consistency of is what's most likely going to happen.

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tellicowx link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=60.msg4424#msg4424 date=1483038337]
so the 12z gfs introduced a ser, the 12z gefs introduced a SER and the 12z euro introduced a SER. 12z runs were not good .

it's like holding on to slippery rope hanging from a 50 story building

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Click to expand...
The SER scenario has been there in  some of the GEFS and EPS members. I think Webber mentioned this yesterday. The OPs I take with a grain of salt at this range.

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[/quote]
very few gefs and eps have shown that senario. Obviously it's a possibility but it's not like it's been a huge option in the ensembles

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Really have to watch the 50/50. Need it to ramp up strong and be in position. If it doesn't get some ns go juice and crank, we'll never make it to the start line and race is over before it begins. It's fun to look at the finish line and total accums, but it boils down to getting out of the blocks first.
 
accu35 link said:
[quote author=accu35 link=topic=60.msg4422#msg4422 date=1483038309]
[quote author=WXinCanton link=topic=60.msg4421#msg4421 date=1483038209]
Ensembles at this range.
Click to expand...
when do they come out?
[/quote] Euro that is
[/quote]

Usually around 3 or so
 
January 2017 Discussion

https://youtu.be/L3gQP7tOAUo
This is how I feel right now about the Euro...


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