Brent
Member
Oh my
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Pattern January 2017 Discussion
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Storm5
Member
it's actually the euro wave that the gfs squashed at 12 and 18zNorthGAWinterWx link said:
18z gfs
00z gfs
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Storm5
Member
I'll take this run its much improved in the Atlantic
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Storm5
Member
Re: January 2017 Discussion
arctic front with energy everywhere can't ask for more
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arctic front with energy everywhere can't ask for more
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Brent
Member
Sign me up lmao
it's actually the euro wave that the gfs squashed at 12 and 18zStorm5 link said:
18z gfs
00z gfs
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[/quote]
Oh yeah, that's right. The GFS did have the wave further north, turning out to be a cutter on some of the past runs of the GFS.
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HartselleWeather
Guest
That was a pretty good run. Very close to something big. Gfs went towards the euro. It also has a icy look to it.
whatalife
Moderator
CMC appears to be similar...
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BillyMurrayWx
Member
Yes it does. It doesn't appear to be as cold into Georgia or the Carolinas either from what I can see.HartselleWeather link said:
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Storm5
Member
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HartselleWeather
Guest
Storm5 link said:
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Very euro like. Hard not to get excited about this threat
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farleydawg79
Guest
Precip is not the issue for most of NGA with this run...its the temps. Surface temps and 850 temps are warm.
Storm5
Member
I've seen enough
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Storm5
Member
who cares at this point the setup is there for something specialfarleydawg79 link said:
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farleydawg79
Guest
who cares at this point the setup is there for something specialStorm5 link said:
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[/quote]
I totally agree...the setup is there.....just need to ride the model train to the station!
whatalife
Moderator
That a way to shove those chips in!!!!Storm5 link said:I've seen enough
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GeorgiaGirl
Member
Storm5 link said:
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Not bad at all. It's looking like there will be a winter storm threat in the south in this time period, it's just a matter of the details being worked out.
I do see that 2nd wave coming up at 252...if that low hugs the coast we would get better snow from the 2nd wave. The 1st wave seems like it's going to be a CAD event more than anything. 2nd wave would have more snow cause the colder air would settle in right after the 1st wave. And the placement of the high at 264 is great. 534 thickness values coming down through NC, SC, GA, AL...528 through northern NC, western NC and through central TN.
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JLL1973
Member
Sweet GFS run
SimeonNC
Member
I know these maps are pointless but there is such a tight gradient, Northern Mecklenburg county up through Iredell gets clobbered while Southern Mecklenburg county gets very little with the CLT area seeing around 3-5 inches of "snow".
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HartselleWeather
Guest
Here is the CMC look to it. Very close also to something special. Nice to see some model agreement to the general pattern.
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True, that is one of the important things to look for, is model agreement.HartselleWeather link said:Here is the CMC look to it. Very close also to something special. Nice to see some model agreement to the general pattern.
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Storm5
Member
the 00z gefs is SEXY
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NCSNOW
Member
Thanks for gefs update. Did the mean snowfall increase for Atlanta and your area Storm? How bout SER. Op had it showing its face enough to kind of throw a wrench in temp profiles, unlike euro that buried the SER
Also, I'm not quite sure what to make of that GFS run. Maybe Storm or SD can help me with this one...from what I can tell the GFS does something completely weird at the 850 level with winds that throws the temp profile out of whack. If you look at 850 level winds over North Central OK ther is a LP area veering winds out in front from the Southwest, but near the surface the winds are completely opposite in the same area...
850 winds:
10m winds:
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850 winds:
10m winds:
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SimeonNC
Member
Storm5 link said:
Maps please?
Because 850mb is about 5000ft, the winds are stronger at that height and they can blow in a different direction than the surface winds. 10m winds is about 32ft above the surface so the winds will be lighter.tellicowx link said:Also, I'm not quite sure what to make of that GFS run. Maybe Storm or SD can help me with this one...from what I can tell the GFS does something completely weird at the 850 level with winds that throws the temp profile out of whack. If you look at 850 level winds over North Central OK ther is a LP area veering winds out in front from the Southwest, but near the surface the winds are completely opposite in the same area...
850 winds:
10m winds:
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Because 850mb is about 5000ft, the winds are stronger at that height and they can blow in a different direction than the surface winds. 10m winds is about 32ft above the surface so the winds will be lighter.NorthGAWinterWx link said:[quote author=tellicowx link=topic=60.msg4170#msg4170 date=1482990339]
Also, I'm not quite sure what to make of that GFS run. Maybe Storm or SD can help me with this one...from what I can tell the GFS does something completely weird at the 850 level with winds that throws the temp profile out of whack. If you look at 850 level winds over North Central OK ther is a LP area veering winds out in front from the Southwest, but near the surface the winds are completely opposite in the same area...
850 winds:
10m winds:
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[/quote]
Yeah I understand that, but what I'm trying to figure out was it places a LP center in the exact same spot as a HP center. And if you looks at the GEFS only one member supports that idea E2. Outside of the few that still suppress the system, most other members are very Euro like minus the temp issues the Op and E2 have.
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Cary_Snow95
Member
Which ones do you wantaccu35 link said:
Storm5
Member
the mean is amazing be so far out
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Yeah the mean is great, and if you take E2 and the OP and discard them cause they're off on an island somewhere lol...it's even better.Storm5 link said:the mean is amazing be so far out
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Cary_Snow95
Member
00z Euro is off and running. Grab some popcorn
Storm5
Member
Yeah the mean is great, and if you take E2 and the OP and discard them cause they're off on an island somewhere lol...it's even better.tellicowx link said:[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=60.msg4178#msg4178 date=1482991749]
the mean is amazing be so far out
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[/quote]
Yeah I'm not worried about specific temp profiles this far out . the screaming message is , there is a real threat right around the corner . if we can hold this look and get to the weekend it's game on
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Yeah the mean is great, and if you take E2 and the OP and discard them cause they're off on an island somewhere lol...it's even better.Storm5 link said:[quote author=tellicowx link=topic=60.msg4179#msg4179 date=1482992013]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=60.msg4178#msg4178 date=1482991749]
the mean is amazing be so far out
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[/quote]
Yeah I'm not worried about specific temp profiles this far out . the screaming message is , there is a real threat right around the corner . if we can hold this look and get to the weekend it's game on
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[/quote]
I completely agree with you Storm, I was just trying to show other members who may take the OP runs verbatim everytime, to first compare it with the Ensembles to see if it makes any sense. But yeah I think that was a great run by the GEFS, showing two camps...one of suppression, which is good at this stage, and the other camp supporting the EPS with the over running idea.
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Storm5
Member
00z euro is warmer vs 12z
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