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Pattern January 2017 Discussion

GaWx link said:
[quote author=GaStorm link=topic=60.msg4034#msg4034 date=1482972161]
The AO is going negative in the 10-14 day forecast which is a huge drop from the 4+ value it was at not long ago. So we have a chance at a -NAO, -AO and nice -EPO to boot. This should be interesting!

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_ensm.shtml
Click to expand...

That's what happened in Jan 2014 after the strongly +AO of Dec 2013.
[/quote]

Definitely a very cold period in Jan 2014 with the notorious snowjam. One of the few storms to hit with 20s during the day as well.
 
Nws meg has 30% snow for next Wednesday jan 3 here in paris tn.
 
bigstick10 link said:
[quote author=NWTENN link=topic=60.msg4039#msg4039 date=1482973865]
Nws meg has 30% snow for next Wednesday jan 3 here in paris tn.
Click to expand...

What is a meg??
[/quote]Memphis National Weather Service Forecast Office
 
bigstick10 link said:
[quote author=NWTENN link=topic=60.msg4039#msg4039 date=1482973865]
Nws meg has 30% snow for next Wednesday jan 3 here in paris tn.
Click to expand...

What is a meg??
[/quote]

That's the 3 letter abbreviation for the NWS office in Memphis TENN.
 
bigstick10 link said:
[quote author=JHS link=topic=60.msg4044#msg4044 date=1482974917]
[quote author=bigstick10 link=topic=60.msg4040#msg4040 date=1482974613]
[quote author=NWTENN link=topic=60.msg4039#msg4039 date=1482973865]
Nws meg has 30% snow for next Wednesday jan 3 here in paris tn.
Click to expand...

What is a meg??
[/quote]

That's the 3 letter abbreviation for the NWS office in Memphis TENN.
[/quote]

Thought it was Meg Ryan, stupid lettering.. MHS would be better...
[/quote]
I know a good 3 letter word for you...BAN

Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk
 
SD link said:
[quote author=bigstick10 link=topic=60.msg4046#msg4046 date=1482975116]
[quote author=JHS link=topic=60.msg4044#msg4044 date=1482974917]
[quote author=bigstick10 link=topic=60.msg4040#msg4040 date=1482974613]
[quote author=NWTENN link=topic=60.msg4039#msg4039 date=1482973865]
Nws meg has 30% snow for next Wednesday jan 3 here in paris tn.
Click to expand...

What is a meg??
[/quote]
Lol! Winner!
I think the server may be tested tonight! This thing is gaining momentum and looks good, even at 8-10 days out!! A lot better than looking at 15 days of AN!

That's the 3 letter abbreviation for the NWS office in Memphis TENN.
[/quote]

Thought it was Meg Ryan, stupid lettering.. MHS would be better...
[/quote]
I know a good 3 letter word for you...BAN

Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk
[/quote]
 
This is from meg in afternoon discussion. I thought the euro was showing winter weather and GFS was not.

Long term...Tuesday through late next week...
The models diverge quite a bit through this time period. Both
models agree on cold air diving down into the southern U.S., but
only the GFS is producing potential winter weather with the arctic
front. Will keep an eye on this as we get closer in time. For now,
it just looks like a good blast of winter air for late next week.
 
SD link said:
[quote author=bigstick10 link=topic=60.msg4046#msg4046 date=1482975116]
[quote author=JHS link=topic=60.msg4044#msg4044 date=1482974917]
[quote author=bigstick10 link=topic=60.msg4040#msg4040 date=1482974613]
[quote author=NWTENN link=topic=60.msg4039#msg4039 date=1482973865]
Nws meg has 30% snow for next Wednesday jan 3 here in paris tn.
Click to expand...

What is a meg??
[/quote]

That's the 3 letter abbreviation for the NWS office in Memphis TENN.
[/quote]

Thought it was Meg Ryan, stupid lettering.. MHS would be better...
[/quote]
I know a good 3 letter word for you...BAN

Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk
[/quote]
Haha State game such a blowout your banning from you're phone... btw that didn't take long. Good call

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 
JLL1973 link said:
This is from meg in afternoon discussion. I thought the euro was showing winter weather and GFS was not.

Long term...Tuesday through late next week...
The models diverge quite a bit through this time period. Both
models agree on cold air diving down into the southern U.S., but
only the GFS is producing potential winter weather with the arctic
front. Will keep an eye on this as we get closer in time. For now,
it just looks like a good blast of winter air for late next week.
Click to expand...
Both models have been showing winter wx for days now. It's just the models are having a hard time agreeing with each other for the winter wx and timing.

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
 
Using a shirtless pic of yourself as an avatar on a weather board is weird.
 
metwannabe link said:
[quote author=SD link=topic=60.msg4051#msg4051 date=1482975882]
[quote author=bigstick10 link=topic=60.msg4046#msg4046 date=1482975116]
[quote author=JHS link=topic=60.msg4044#msg4044 date=1482974917]
[quote author=bigstick10 link=topic=60.msg4040#msg4040 date=1482974613]
[quote author=NWTENN link=topic=60.msg4039#msg4039 date=1482973865]
Nws meg has 30% snow for next Wednesday jan 3 here in paris tn.
Click to expand...

What is a meg??
[/quote]

That's the 3 letter abbreviation for the NWS office in Memphis TENN.
[/quote]

Thought it was Meg Ryan, stupid lettering.. MHS would be better...
[/quote]
I know a good 3 letter word for you...BAN

Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk
[/quote]
Haha State game such a blowout your banning from you're phone... btw that didn't take long. Good call

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
[/quote]
I felt like he was trolling more than adding. People have said they wanted him gone a while ago.

Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk
 
SD link said:
[quote author=metwannabe link=topic=60.msg4063#msg4063 date=1482976720]
[quote author=SD link=topic=60.msg4051#msg4051 date=1482975882]
[quote author=bigstick10 link=topic=60.msg4046#msg4046 date=1482975116]
[quote author=JHS link=topic=60.msg4044#msg4044 date=1482974917]
[quote author=bigstick10 link=topic=60.msg4040#msg4040 date=1482974613]
[quote author=NWTENN link=topic=60.msg4039#msg4039 date=1482973865]
Nws meg has 30% snow for next Wednesday jan 3 here in paris tn.
Click to expand...

What is a meg??
[/quote]

That's the 3 letter abbreviation for the NWS office in Memphis TENN.
[/quote]

Thought it was Meg Ryan, stupid lettering.. MHS would be better...
[/quote]
I know a good 3 letter word for you...BAN

Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk
[/quote]
Haha State game such a blowout your banning from you're phone... btw that didn't take long. Good call

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
[/quote]
I felt like he was trolling more than adding. People have said they wanted him gone a while ago.

Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk
[/quote]
Good call...He was really irritating...


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
can the 00z gfs just hurry up and get here.

I'm looking to see if the gfs holds the Atlantic block longer than previous runs. the gefs holds it longer . we really want to see it hang in there like the euro has.

00z runs always make me nervous during potential threat periods. always run the risk of big shifts .

the good news it the block starts to take place over the weekend so really, if we can make it to the weekend with the same general look I'll start getting really excited

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
 
GaWx link said:
Verbatim, the 18Z GFS gives Monsieur Chris' abode (Macon) to Augusta to Shawn (Columbia area) moderate ZR and a cold (30's) rain SAV-CHS on 1/7.
Click to expand...

Interesting. I'm not sure what to believe yet, but the sigoal is there
 
Storm5 link said:
can the 00z gfs just hurry up and get here.

I'm looking to see if the gfs holds the Atlantic block longer than previous runs. the gefs holds it longer . we really want to see it hang in there like the euro has.

00z runs always make me nervous during potential threat periods. always run the risk of big shifts .

the good news it the block starts to take place over the weekend so really, if we can make it to the weekend with the same general look I'll start getting really excited

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Would be nice to just see more consistency  for sure. Gfs will likely squash it for now.
 
Storm5 link said:
can the 00z gfs just hurry up and get here.

I'm looking to see if the gfs holds the Atlantic block longer than previous runs. the gefs holds it longer . we really want to see it hang in there like the euro has.

00z runs always make me nervous during potential threat periods. always run the risk of big shifts .

the good news it the block starts to take place over the weekend so really, if we can make it to the weekend with the same general look I'll start getting really excited

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Been thinking the same thing all afternoon. Instead of focusing on 8 to 10 days out. Watch the big players on the field
/ pattern and see if they are still there by this Sunday night. Then we'll be well inside the 72-100 hour  mark before the first precip, hopefully frozen breaks out in TX, Arkansas.
 
Using ensemble/mean is a best option right now this far out, imo.
 
Got to get our blocks set up and the artic front through first. Then we can start focusing on 1 wave, 2 waves or just overruning.
 
Storm5 link said:
can the 00z gfs just hurry up and get here.

I'm looking to see if the gfs holds the Atlantic block longer than previous runs. the gefs holds it longer . we really want to see it hang in there like the euro has.

00z runs always make me nervous during potential threat periods. always run the risk of big shifts .

the good news it the block starts to take place over the weekend so really, if we can make it to the weekend with the same general look I'll start getting really excited

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
It'll start coming out within an hr or so. Patience is key, when it comes to winter wx watching in the south. Oh yeah, if we can make it to the weekend with the looks we've been seeing lately, I'll be very excited.

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
 
Shawn link said:
Using ensemble/mean is a best option right now this far out, imo.
Click to expand...

Without a doubt. Watch ops at 5h and the ens 5h to hopefully keep a consensus minus the gfs op quick trigger to be progressive with the Atlantic blocking. Man the euro, EPS with the blocking, 50/50 low is drool worthy.  All this goes to pot or is the real deal 9f it's unfolding in its genesis come Sunday.
 
With all the extremely high temps at the pole and low sea ice cover the AO has to start tanking at some point sending a big chunk of the polar vortex south.
 
GaWx link said:
Verbatim, the 18Z GFS gives Monsieur Chris' abode (Macon) to Augusta to Shawn (Columbia area) moderate ZR and a cold (30's) rain SAV-CHS on 1/7.
Click to expand...

Larry, if you don't mind, what does it show for the Cumming area? Thanks!
 
bhs1975 link said:
With all the extremely high temps at the pole and low sea ice cover the AO has to start tanking at some point sending a big chunk of the polar vortex south.
Click to expand...
Depends on the blocking as well. Not just the AO, and a +PNA helps out too. But I think with a +PNA we would see mostly just cold and no winter storms (Systems are suppressed). Speaking of the polar vortex, I think it was 13-14 winter were it stayed cold for days. (The polar vortex was stuck). That is when we had the snowjam here in ATL in Feb. of 2014.

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
 
The models are really disturbing the PV. There aren't any signs of a split but these disturbances should be enough to help keep the pv in the troposphere from locking up over the pole.

Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk
 
SD link said:
The models are really disturbing the PV. There aren't any signs of a split but these disturbances should be enough to help keep the pv in the troposphere from locking up over the pole.

Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
The falling AO is a great response to this. It will move is off the pole just enough and elongate the PV so we can hopefully cash in.
 
Met1985 link said:
[quote author=SD link=topic=60.msg4114#msg4114 date=1482980903]
The models are really disturbing the PV. There aren't any signs of a split but these disturbances should be enough to help keep the pv in the troposphere from locking up over the pole.

Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
The falling AO is a great response to this. It will move is off the pole just enough and elongate the PV so we can hopefully cash in.
[/quote]
c309681997c679acb1da86516f9f9897.jpg


The GFS is showing a weak warming over Asia that really disturbs the pv at 10mb. This should help keep cold in play through hopefully midmonth

Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk
 
Re: January 2017 Discussion

Lots of energy going on over the Rockies at 102-108. Nice trough coming down 500mb at 114 out west.

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
 
CummingWx link said:
[quote author=GaWx link=topic=60.msg4020#msg4020 date=1482968770]
Verbatim, the 18Z GFS gives Monsieur Chris' abode (Macon) to Augusta to Shawn (Columbia area) moderate ZR and a cold (30's) rain SAV-CHS on 1/7.
Click to expand...

Larry, if you don't mind, what does it show for the Cumming area? Thanks!
[/quote]

Cumming gets some light ZR (~0.10) late on 1/7.
 
Alright y'all, it's looking like the 0z GFS is bringing the first wave further south than the past two runs from today. Snow coming in north and central TX at 174.

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I-20 winter event? Hmmm it's shaping up to be that way at 186.

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I don't know. This run looks a fair bit different with not as deep a trough and not as cold coming in.
 
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