• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern January 2017 Discussion

shoot give me an arctic front stretched across the region with energy around and I'll run like hell

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
 
Storm5 link said:
shoot give me an arctic front stretched across the region with energy around and I'll run like hell

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Definitely. Regardless of where this run goes with a specific storm threat, it isn't a crapshoot or anything like that.  Colder isn't bad and energy all over.
 
lol we have the euro and it's ensembles on the same page why do we care what the 18z gfs says ???

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
 
Storm5 link said:
lol we have the euro and it's ensembles on the same page why do we care what the 18z gfs says ???

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Lol! I bet if you switched that Euro run to this run of the GFS and the GFS spit out what the Euro showed, it be a different story!
 
GaWx link said:
[quote author=Webberweather53 link=topic=60.msg3968#msg3968 date=1482961469]
On this date in 1935, a classic, prolonged overrunning/Miller B event produced the 2nd major snowstorm in less than a week in central and eastern NC. As much as a foot of snow fell just west and southwest of Charlotte in southwestern NC and extreme upstate SC. A mix of rain, snow, sleet and freezing rain occurred from the Triangle area and points southeastward owards the south-central coastal plain with snow/sleet accumulations topping out around 3-6", while mostly rain fell in the extreme southern coastal plain, including Wilmington. Eventually, most areas south & east of Raleigh changed over to mainly snow overnight on the 29th as a sub 1000mb coastal low developed east of Hatteras. As many here are already well aware, this was only the tip of the iceberg in the winter of 1935-36, as a several more winter storms would hit the state in January & February, making 1935-36 one of the snowiest winters area-wide in much of North Carolina dating back to the late 19th century.
As one would expect from modern relationships amongst southeastern US wintry wx and high-latitude blocking, the first storm, a classic coastal Miller A, not all that dissimilar from its modern cousin in December 2010, featured a robust -AO/-NAO (& even north pacific blocking), while the 2nd system, Miller B/overrunning event, on December 28-29 was dominated by primarily in the north-northwestern Pacific blocking. (-WPO/-EPO)

December-28-29-1935-NC-Snowmap.png
Click to expand...

Atlanta got a severe ZR from this 12/28-9/1935 storm and a second one just 3-4 days later!
[/quote]

Thanks for the input Larry! Wow, that sucks lol. Yeah, I've noticed a lot of great NC winter storms have ended up as significant ZR events in Atlanta, I'm curious what the proportions are?
 
yea, euro with the first wave is a hit and gfs has it suppressed but plenty cold, an ideal look ~190hrs out imo.
 
DopplerWx link said:
yea, euro with the first wave is a hit and gfs has it suppressed but plenty cold, an ideal look ~190hrs out imo.
Click to expand...
I agree it's the gfs with its happy northern stream domination

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
 
yeah not quite sure much will get going for the deep south on the second wave here.. energy out west not digging anything like the 12z did with it out there.
 
18z gfs is yet again pushing the block out faster vs all other guidance

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
 
Cold air is there, 18z GFS waits till the high pushes off to the east and then the energy gets kicked up at 228. CAD setting up so far with a strong high...1041 at 240

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
 
and there goes the crap icy storm for SC, South-Central GA.  :/  1041HP holdong on and precip blossoming by hour 240.  snowy/icy around TN.  could be quite icy if the high stays in place on future frames.
 
can't wait for the gefs . no doubt it will look nothing like this op run

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
 
Yep icy into NC/Upstate SC after an initial burst into Central/South GA & SC .  Low pops off the SC coast.
 
gfs has the euro wave just crushes it. great place to be. how many times have we seen this song and dance with the gfs
f1f773f39c2ec9100e6245b6d4501733.jpg


Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
 
Great signs with today's runs.  There will always be variations from run-to-run. Model biases are starting to show themselves a bit I believe.  GFS seems to be too strong squashing energy with the northern stream.  I am curious about one thing with the ensembles. What is causing the misses on the individual members?  Is it squashing the energy too?  If so, it's a great look to have at this lead time.  Climo is working for us...cold air appears to be there...some blocking...overrunning is classic with no worries about cutters or miller A's that are too wrapped up...maybe not as much of a NW trend as the days approach because of the setup???
 
Storm5 link said:
gfs has the euro wave just crushes it. great place to be. how many times have we seen this song and dance with the gfs
f1f773f39c2ec9100e6245b6d4501733.jpg


Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Take it and run w/it this far out...


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Storm5 link said:
gfs has the euro wave just crushes it. great place to be. how many times have we seen this song and dance with the gfs
f1f773f39c2ec9100e6245b6d4501733.jpg


Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Hmmm, What is January 2014?
 
packfan98 link said:
Great signs with today's runs.  There will always be variations from run-to-run. Model biases are starting to show themselves a bit I believe.  GFS seems to be too strong squashing energy with the northern stream.  I am curious about one thing with the ensembles. What is causing the misses on the individual members?  Is it squashing the energy too?  If so, it's a great look to have at this lead time.  Climo is working for us...cold air appears to be there...some blocking...overrunning is classic with no worries about cutters or miller A's that are too wrapped up...maybe not as much of a NW trend as the days approach because of the setup???
Click to expand...
Setup looks good...Not to worried at this pt about a NW trend...


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Storm5 link said:
gfs has the euro wave just crushes it. great place to be. how many times have we seen this song and dance with the gfs
f1f773f39c2ec9100e6245b6d4501733.jpg


Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Seen this story plenty of times, and I know how it ends if there is precip at all from it.
 
ARCC link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=60.msg4006#msg4006 date=1482965311]
gfs has the euro wave just crushes it. great place to be. how many times have we seen this song and dance with the gfs
f1f773f39c2ec9100e6245b6d4501733.jpg


Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Hmmm, What is January 2014?
[/quote]
Winner winner

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
 
18z GFS run is a race against the high and the low. If the low comes in while the high moves east we're in business for snow. Yes, we've seen this plenty of times before. The frontal boundary is still there and the potential of a low coming up at the end of the FB.
28c2362081e6453927c4459f7a3a0260.jpg


Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
 
This is the 18z DGEX, looks similar as the 18z GFS. It also has the FB with energy coming up. This is an indication that a low could form at the end of the FB in the northwestern Gulf. Also, the cold air is being pushed to the southeast.
33220742cb6204b184762aa9f280282b.jpg


Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
 
Storm5 link said:
[quote author=ARCC link=topic=60.msg4009#msg4009 date=1482965766]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=60.msg4006#msg4006 date=1482965311]
gfs has the euro wave just crushes it. great place to be. how many times have we seen this song and dance with the gfs
f1f773f39c2ec9100e6245b6d4501733.jpg


Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Hmmm, What is January 2014?
[/quote]
Winner winner

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
[/quote]

That's the look your probably want from the gfs right now. At that time period. I think everything looking good at the moment.
 
this is a great look this far out...i can think of several events that started out in the beginning looking just like this.
 
Webberweather53 link said:
[quote author=GaWx link=topic=60.msg3984#msg3984 date=1482964280]
[quote author=Webberweather53 link=topic=60.msg3968#msg3968 date=1482961469]
On this date in 1935, a classic, prolonged overrunning/Miller B event produced the 2nd major snowstorm in less than a week in central and eastern NC. As much as a foot of snow fell just west and southwest of Charlotte in southwestern NC and extreme upstate SC. A mix of rain, snow, sleet and freezing rain occurred from the Triangle area and points southeastward owards the south-central coastal plain with snow/sleet accumulations topping out around 3-6", while mostly rain fell in the extreme southern coastal plain, including Wilmington. Eventually, most areas south & east of Raleigh changed over to mainly snow overnight on the 29th as a sub 1000mb coastal low developed east of Hatteras. As many here are already well aware, this was only the tip of the iceberg in the winter of 1935-36, as a several more winter storms would hit the state in January & February, making 1935-36 one of the snowiest winters area-wide in much of North Carolina dating back to the late 19th century.
As one would expect from modern relationships amongst southeastern US wintry wx and high-latitude blocking, the first storm, a classic coastal Miller A, not all that dissimilar from its modern cousin in December 2010, featured a robust -AO/-NAO (& even north pacific blocking), while the 2nd system, Miller B/overrunning event, on December 28-29 was dominated by primarily in the north-northwestern Pacific blocking. (-WPO/-EPO)

December-28-29-1935-NC-Snowmap.png
Click to expand...

Atlanta got a severe ZR from this 12/28-9/1935 storm and a second one just 3-4 days later!
[/quote]

Thanks for the input Larry! Wow, that sucks lol. Yeah, I've noticed a lot of great NC winter storms have ended up as significant ZR events in Atlanta, I'm curious what the proportions are?
[/quote]

YW. Yeah, a decent % of major NC winter storms were either major IP or major ZR in the ATL-AHN corridor including 1/1988 (4" of mainly IP), 1/2000 (major ZR), 2/1979 (4" of mainly IP), 3/25/1971 (major ZR in spring), 12/28-9/1935 (major ZR).
 
Verbatim, the 18Z GFS gives Monsieur Chris' abode (Macon) to Augusta to Shawn (Columbia area) moderate ZR and a cold (30's) rain SAV-CHS on 1/7.
 
This is the forecast for Decatur I just got from the weather channel. I would cash out for winter if it came true.
c5774bcc3ad4a51b3c9f4d820fefd310.png
4c41c43c7f2852808798e7b45b3e11cd.png
7af1e681c6b1c8e8fc59b972dabe26fe.png



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
HartselleWeather link said:
This is the forecast for Decatur I just got from the weather channel. I would cash out for winter if it came true.
c5774bcc3ad4a51b3c9f4d820fefd310.png
4c41c43c7f2852808798e7b45b3e11cd.png
7af1e681c6b1c8e8fc59b972dabe26fe.png



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
HAHA!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Man if that first wave moves a little east, then we in business. I'll be in a sweet spot
 
gefs is slower moving the block out which is good as the Op has been rushing it

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
 
Mmm Northern Stream dominant progressive GFS.  How I love it so.
 
15 / 20 GEFS members from 18z with Wintry weather into this area.. so if I were in Upstate SC or NC I would be feeling a bit optimistic about now.
 
Been out of the loop the last couple of days, but looks like there is still potential for a winter storm late next week.
 
For the umpteenth time, the EPS squashes a fantasy land SE US ridge as we get inside day 10... Take the EPS & GEFS @ your own risk beyond Day 11-12... Wash, rinse, repeat.

output_KcoQRo.gif


The -PNA & -NAO bias has been nothing to sneeze at even on the ECMWF. We've essentially trended closer to 2013/14-2014/15, but you won't hear any complaints out of me. Granted, the north pacific blocking isn't quite as poleward as it was during those years & at least for this threat we'll have a modest amount of North Atlantic blocking, which may be enough to allow this to become more of a hybrid miller A-B event...

ecmwf_pna_bias-1024x512.png


ecmwf_nao_bias-1024x512.png
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top