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Pattern January 2017 Discussion

metwannabe link said:
Here's the mean through day 12, not too shabby...

839ba98b52d58875d224b58c48ed590f.gif


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yep , not bad . I'll be more excited when and IF the eps gets on board

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Storm5 link said:
[quote author=metwannabe link=topic=60.msg3623#msg3623 date=1482863059]
Here's the mean through day 12, not too shabby...

839ba98b52d58875d224b58c48ed590f.gif


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yep , not bad . I'll be more excited when and IF the eps gets on board

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[/quote]
Today is the day.....  I sense it.

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Tarheel1 link said:
I am getting a little excited now, but can't go all-in, until SD is all in! Where's he at? Dusting off the drums?
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I'm here just watching the runs come in

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MichaelJ link said:
Well if you look at the Carolinas in the pic posted by olhausen, the guy could be right about no wintry precip  (outside the mountains) for the next 16 days. Fact is I don't trust any prediction or model outside 3-5 days anyway, but it is fun to see the fantasy storms in different areas. Of course they will probably change 5 times before the date depicted
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Avatar Lol, please don't big stick will get jealous ???
 
Storm5 link said:
12z euro is all in . nice winter threat late in the run

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Lots of positives today! Let's keep em coming! Maybe New Year's Eve , we will have to stay up past midnight, for the new Euro run!
 
Beggars can't be choosers I always say.  I'd like the drop-in to be a bit better on that Euro image, but i'll take it!
 
Shawn link said:
Beggars can't be choosers I always say.  I'd like the drop-in to be a bit better on that Euro image, but i'll take it!
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hell at this point I'll take it. we have all guidance agreeing on blocking . that's all we can ask for at this point . details will work themselves out

damn that setup on the euro was headed for glory

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Shawn link said:
Beggars can't be choosers I always say.  I'd like the drop-in to be a bit better on that Euro image, but i'll take it!
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This far out I think it's ok...let's see where we're at on New Years...


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Storm5 link said:
there is a constant threat showing for next week in the guidance so why is anyone worrying about a cutter that's 12 days away. if it showed a damn blizzard it would be just as wrong .

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LOL Truth


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whatalife link said:
[quote author=Shawn link=topic=60.msg3636#msg3636 date=1482865806]
Beggars can't be choosers I always say.  I'd like the drop-in to be a bit better on that Euro image, but i'll take it!
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This far out I think it's ok...let's see where we're at on New Years...


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[/quote]
I'm gonna be toe up from the flo up! And even better if we still tracking!
 
I really like the potential for a low amplitude wave or 2 in the 1/6-10 period. I think that the pattern will be enough to promote suppression but the chance of a higher amplitude inland runner is always there

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MichaelJ link said:
Well if you look at the Carolinas in the pic posted by olhausen, the guy could be right about no wintry precip  (outside the mountains) for the next 16 days. Fact is I don't trust any prediction or model outside 3-5 days anyway, but it is fun to see the fantasy storms in different areas. Of course they will probably change 5 times before the date depicted
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From what was posted on here it sounds like he was talking about the whole southeast.
 
Re: January 2017 Discussion

want a fantasy ???go look at the day 8-9 euro control . omgd haha

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bigstick10 link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=60.msg3646#msg3646 date=1482870516]
want a fantasy ???go look at the day 8-9 euro control . omgd haha

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I hate when you guys do this.  Can you elaborate, or post something more concrete???  Thanks
[/quote]
63d5870c562c16a51be2c443bde42ac1.jpg


it's just the control but gives an idea . Looks like many gefs members and now eps members

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I noticed the 12z GFS is a lot faster than the Euro with that winter wx potential in the first week of Jan. I do believe we have our first biggest winter weather threat of the season. (Well for me anyway). If the GFS holds true, we could see the first threat early as the 4th. 

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Storm5 link said:
[quote author=bigstick10 link=topic=60.msg3647#msg3647 date=1482870704]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=60.msg3646#msg3646 date=1482870516]
want a fantasy ???go look at the day 8-9 euro control . omgd haha

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I hate when you guys do this.  Can you elaborate, or post something more concrete???  Thanks
[/quote]
63d5870c562c16a51be2c443bde42ac1.jpg


it's just the control but gives an idea . Looks like many gefs members and now eps members

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[/quote]
That may be the best map ever!! See the DC snow hole!!! It's a beaut Clark
 
Storm5 link said:
[quote author=bigstick10 link=topic=60.msg3647#msg3647 date=1482870704]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=60.msg3646#msg3646 date=1482870516]
want a fantasy ???go look at the day 8-9 euro control . omgd haha

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Click to expand...

I hate when you guys do this.  Can you elaborate, or post something more concrete???  Thanks
[/quote]
63d5870c562c16a51be2c443bde42ac1.jpg


it's just the control but gives an idea . Looks like many gefs members and now eps members

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[/quote]

Wow. Even though things will change a million times between now and then, that map reminds me of February 25, 2015 where Birmingham and Atlanta got screwed and the extreme northern suburbs got heavy snow.
 
CummingWx link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=60.msg3649#msg3649 date=1482870976]
[quote author=bigstick10 link=topic=60.msg3647#msg3647 date=1482870704]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=60.msg3646#msg3646 date=1482870516]
want a fantasy ???go look at the day 8-9 euro control . omgd haha

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Click to expand...

I hate when you guys do this.  Can you elaborate, or post something more concrete???  Thanks
[/quote]
63d5870c562c16a51be2c443bde42ac1.jpg


it's just the control but gives an idea . Looks like many gefs members and now eps members

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[/quote]

Wow. Even though things will change a million times between now and then, that map reminds me of February 25, 2015 where Birmingham and Atlanta got screwed and the extreme northern suburbs got heavy snow.
[/quote]
no there would ice below that around bham and atlanta verbatim on the control run

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ARCC link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=60.msg3648#msg3648 date=1482870928]
12z eps
851a4324e0c7448c6c2543e9757287a1.jpg
c6ce033f1f4e61a4fa929b6b9d4e4ba4.jpg
6398bc31bc0427516e029cc6fe5340b4.jpg


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A little farther east with the EPO ridge and we have January 2014 with a -NAO.
[/quote]
yep it's really close

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I didn't mean to get a met roast going in the discussion thread my fault. let's try and keep that in the banter thread

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Storm5 link said:
I didn't mean to get a met roast going in the discussion thread my fault. let's try and keep that in the banter thread

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Agreed if you guys want to roast Mets or each other go to banter. We are trying to keep things fun but not cluttered

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CummingWx link said:
Wow. Even though things will change a million times between now and then, that map reminds me of February 25, 2015 where Birmingham and Atlanta got screwed and the extreme northern suburbs got heavy snow.
Click to expand...

That was so weird.  I live 25 miles north of downtown Birmingham, and we had 6-8 inches in my community.  You could literally see the accumulations drop off as you drove south out of my neighborhood.  The cutoff between heavy snow and little to none was unreal.
 
Re: January 2017 Discussion

gfs s**** the bed with the H5 look
12z gfs
90167bde2c532eb5c7377789fd45153a.jpg


18z gfs
bf61629bc7afb3bdf25141f768e9bb82.jpg


same damn model

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Re: January 2017 Discussion

18z GFS looks similar as the 12z for the first wave. It's starting to look back the way it was days ago. 

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I like the idea of the broad based trough. We need it to dig more before the s/w buries out west. Definite overrunning threat should the cards fall right.
 
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