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Wintry January 14-16th storm potential.

PEA_RIDGE said:
YALL CAN KEEP THE SNOW AND ICE.. I WORK IN PUBLIC SAFETY AND AT A 9-1-1 DISPATCH CENTER. PEOPLE CANT DRIVE WHEN IT'S DRY AND THE'RE ALL WANTING SNOW.. ILL HAVE TO WORK 9-1-1 WHEN THIS IS HAPPENING AND IF THE FZR VERIFIES THEN ILL BE SPENDING MONDAY AND TUESDAY AT WORK THEN POSS MY OFF DAYS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HERE... :D
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Thanks for your service!
 
metwannabe said:
Yep and honestly I like where we (especially ENC) sit right now better than a coastal already along the coast. I mean too much digging, amplification and it can get pulled west quick too. Don't think there's time for that though
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It will be interesting once we are in the short range models wheelhouse, I think this set up for global models will be a trip on the struggle bus for them. I would prefer to see a little more precip on the Euro, but this is a situation where even it may not “see” the subtlety’s of this situation
 
I'm not as knowledgeable as many of the members who post here at reading the tea leaves concerning weather models. I used to hear meteorologists talk about the transfer of energy from an inland low cutting through the Southeast to a low situated off the coast during winter storms. These systems seem to give the Southeastern coastal states some of their biggest winter events. Is it possible that this could happen with this storm? I am happy that many areas in the Mid South that haven't seen snow for a while might get a treat depending on your prospective.
 
Where i live in NW ga its crazy the gradient.. my county cut in half .. 2 inches north 0 south.. that would be only the second time thats happened my entire life.. but im still still leaning towards further shifts south of the band.. seeing how intense the arctic high is
 
TheBatman said:
LOL Huntsville you leave the 3 counties in white out and they should also be in the winter storm watch. Euro shifted south also with accumulation. Nam showing ice. Euro accumulation picture .View attachment 141933View attachment 141934
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Yeah, they are slow to the game. They do say this:
This watch
may be expanded in future updates if guidance trends more
favorable for impactful snow across southeast portions of the
forecast area.
 
metwannabe said:
For NC: Not to sound repetitive or being a weenie (well a little) but this really is close to a significant coastal. Really hoping these trends of trough tilting and drawing moisture inland continue at 12z today. Don't need a monster run, just positive trends.
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Need this look 100 miles further west....

gfs_z500_vort_us_19.png
 
ynot said:
Where i live in NW ga its crazy the gradient.. my county cut in half .. 2 inches north 0 south.. that would be only the second time thats happened my entire life.. but im still still leaning towards further shifts south of the band.. seeing how intense the arctic high is
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I’m thinking ice is a bigger threat in our neck of the woods. The shallow arctic air always slips the cumberlands first.
 
weatherfide said:
Congrats Raleigh on the 06Z GFS! A nice 3 to 4 inch snowfall!
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Raleigh NWS not bullish on this.

As we progress into the Monday night/Tuesday timeframe,
deterministic guidance has come into a bit better agreement wrt to a
developing coastal low. The GFS and CMC are now more in line with
the persistent ECMWF, shunting the coastal low and most of the
associated precipitation offshore. In ensemble land, the percentage
of members simulating snow across our northern Piedmont has come
down some as well compared to previous days. Progressing further
southward (even in the Raleigh area), the percentage of members
simulating snow Tuesday has decreased significantly. For this
reason, kept only a mention of rain or snow for those primarily
north of I-85 in this time period. There is some hint that the rain-
snow line could drop south late Tuesday night/early Wednesday as the
low pulls northward. Again, will need to see more data over next day
or so to provide more detail in this time frame
 
CaryWx said:
Raleigh NWS not bullish on this.

As we progress into the Monday night/Tuesday timeframe,
deterministic guidance has come into a bit better agreement wrt to a
developing coastal low. The GFS and CMC are now more in line with
the persistent ECMWF, shunting the coastal low and most of the
associated precipitation offshore. In ensemble land, the percentage
of members simulating snow across our northern Piedmont has come
down some as well compared to previous days. Progressing further
southward (even in the Raleigh area), the percentage of members
simulating snow Tuesday has decreased significantly. For this
reason, kept only a mention of rain or snow for those primarily
north of I-85 in this time period. There is some hint that the rain-
snow line could drop south late Tuesday night/early Wednesday as the
low pulls northward. Again, will need to see more data over next day
or so to provide more detail in this time frame
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They never are.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Not to mention the gradient of this band is a local NWS forecasters nightmare.. 10 miles could be the diff between 3 inch WSW snow and nothing
 
A few may have mentioned this but what would it take to give the NC foothills and Piedmont a chance at this storm. Any realistic chances.
 
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