Wintry January 14-16th storm potential.

[accu35]

so ice, freezing rain in the picture for central Alabama ?

Yes very possible.

 

[Darklordsuperstorm]

I would be willing to wager a bunch a Mets are crapping bricks right now. This one is giving off huge January 2014 vibes. I will leave everyone with this nugget of wisdom. Even if the precip is light "those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it"

 

[TheBatman]

This is going to be a hair pulling forecast for a lot of the Mets. These models still hasn’t locked in on anything in stone.

 

[TheBatman]

 

[BHAMWX]

I would be willing to wager a bunch a Mets are crapping bricks right now. This one is giving off huge January 2014 vibes. I will leave everyone with this nugget of wisdom. Even if the precip is light "those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it"

was this Snowmageddon of 2014 ?

 

[TheBatman]

 

[BHAMWX]

For Alabama and B'ham area, expect the forecast to change up until Sunday or Monday when the models have better data?

 

[accu35]

For Alabama and B'ham area, expect the forecast to change up until Sunday or Monday when the models have better data?

I’m gonna look at the short ranges.

 

[Carolina Sky]

Sickening how close
View attachment 141794

Northwest trend?

 

[Chazwin]

Northwest trend?

It’s not really a NW trend that we need based on the EURO and GFS… we need that to go neutral and then negative tilt few hours earlier so that it pulls moisture inland over the Carolinas

 

[iGRXY]

It’s not really a NW trend that we need based on the EURO and GFS… we need that to go neutral and then negative tilt few hours earlier so that it pulls moisture inland over the Carolinas

Something that won’t be known until the wave is on land and honestly probably not until 24-36 hours out from us out here also. It’s a wait and see game at this point

 

[jrips27]

Mean - Gfs ensemble

 

[CNCsnwfan1210]

There's a few members that want to develop a coastal low and put a few flakes down

Sent from my SM-A136U1 using Tapatalk

 

[Pup12]

Quick question. That sharp cutoff on the models that’s showing up…is that a transition to ice or is that where they’re thinking the precipitation will sharply drop to just flurries?

 

[Chazwin]

Something that won’t be known until the wave is on land and honestly probably not until 24-36 hours out from us out here also. It’s a wait and see game at this point

Very true. It reminds a little but of the 1/21-22/2022 storm that the models didn’t start catching on to the tilt of the trough until about 48 hours or so out.

 

[crecre9]

24 hours GEFS mean trending drier.

 

[Metwannabe]

Swing and a miss for everyone from GA to MD line.

View attachment 141796

Not everyone ?

 

[Cad Wedge NC]

24 hours GEFS mean trending drier.
View attachment 141809

At least it's not just here..... it's the entire multi-state area.

 

[SimeonNC]

Something that won’t be known until the wave is on land and honestly probably not until 24-36 hours out from us out here also. It’s a wait and see game at this point

This tweet is interesting and echoes your statement.

 

[iGRXY]

This tweet is interesting and echoes your statement.

I’ve come to learn that if you’re sitting pretty at this lead time, your heart will probably get broken. Not saying I end up getting snow, but it definitely will not surprise me to see our trough go neutral tilt sooner and therefore get more precip further north showing up by Sunday. All I have to go on is that models seem to swing wildly from one extreme to the other and if you’re in the honey hole at day 2-5, you’ll probably get your heart broken these past few years.