AFD out of Memphis this afternoon:
.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Thursday)
Issued at 301 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2024
Latest surface analysis depict a reinforcing cold
front parallel to
the Mississippi River. Behind the
front temperatures have dipped
into the upper teens and lower 20s in western and central Arkansas.
These air temperatures will filter into the Mid-South causing overnight lows
to dip into the 20s overnight tonight into tomorrow morning.
Ahead of this
front gradient winds will continue to be in the 20-30
mph range and gusts 40-50 mph. A Wind Advisory will remain in place
area wide until midnight tonight as the pressure
gradient laxes.
Cool and dry conditions are expected tomorrow and through the day
Sunday ahead of an arctic airmass and associated cold
front.
Bitter cold air temperatures and sub zero wind chills are the
primary concern behind this front. Additionally, snow accumulations
and amounts have increase since the previous forecast. The previous
forecast indicated a 700 mb moisture plume, however, latest models
and associated soundings are indicative of saturation falling even
further to the surface; now a 800 mb moisture plume. This dendritic
growth zone is likely to be completely saturated for a large portion
of the Mid-South.
Previous forecast also showed a large dry slot
above the surface which would be indicative of less snow
accumulation and a drier snow. With more saturation in place,
snowfall looks to be more wet, fluffy flakes and accumulation
occurrence is more likely to occur. Temperatures will be generally in
the teens to mid 20s area wide as the precipitation approaches and
begins to fall Sunday night into Monday morning. Given this is a
holiday weekend, travel impacts are likely.
The
low pressure system has been trending on a more southerly track
making highest impact zones appear to split the
CWA (along the TN
and MS border). Ice accumulation appears limited at this time. Due
to all these factors, a Winter Storm
Watch has been issued and will
go into effect 12 PM on Sunday until 6 AM Tuesday for the entire Mid-
South. If trends continue, this will
likely be upgraded to a Winter
Storm
Warning.
Wind Chill products will
likely be a possibility as
well.
On Tuesday, dry conditions will return, but the bitter cold is here
to stay. Temperatures will stay below freezing area wide until
Thursday, where most areas will barely hover above freezing. Another
chance of precipitation is possible Thursday.
