JLL1973
Member
ECMWF is also going to be a good hit for northern ms and midsouth areas
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Wintry January 14-16th storm potential.
- Thread starter TheBatman
- Start date
Strange because typically the 3k is slower with the cold push
JLL1973
Member
Euro is a buzz kill
Euro is probably the closest best option because it still lags behind the second vort, after the first initial one, which people east in ATL/CLT/RAH want. But problem is getting a favorable tilt. And this euro run looks like it’s not going to get that done
packfan98
Moderator
Brick Tamland
Member
Euro looks bone dry for NC.
rburrel2
Member
It's bad for those west of the apps, but honestly it's not bad for those of us east of the apps.
If the euro caved and showed a CMC/Ukmet solution then our goose would be cooked. The fact it's still flat with no storm gives hope that maybe something in between is still on the table.
Edit: actually not bad for west of the apps overall b/c the first surge produces fine.
If the euro caved and showed a CMC/Ukmet solution then our goose would be cooked. The fact it's still flat with no storm gives hope that maybe something in between is still on the table.
Edit: actually not bad for west of the apps overall b/c the first surge produces fine.
olhausen
Member
People living in middle and northern Tennessee have to keep in mind just how cold it’s going to be When this snow starts falling. Anything that falls is going to stick instantly so it’s not going to take much moisture to get accumulating snow. On the 12z gfs the snow starts falling Monday AM with temps between 18-24 degrees which is rare in these parts. There‘s also the fact that temps will have been below freezing since Saturday night with lows down in the teens Sunday morning and again Sunday night. It’s going to be like throwing sawdust on super glue. My point being that even if you’re on the northern edge of the precipitation you could still pull off a decent snow since this system is more like the snows up north temperature wise. It’s going to stay on the ground for a while too!
12z euro was close - it held positive tilt longer which allowed more of a cold press, then it almost made the turn. This is the only path for those in the RDU corridor.
Showmeyourtds
Member
No one sent me a copy of the memo that said we could start drankin'....but you aren't wrong.
Just appears to stall/dry up the further east on each frame. A big nuthin' sammich for most of GA & AL
W
WSW
Guest
Euro sort of a nothing burger for most everyone.
severestorm
Member
Do you think the models are too less with QPF for the NC mountains? Weird the piedmont of TN jackpots while the mountains get nothing.
If the trough had began to tilt in the time frame below, all of that moisture along the coastal front would have been pulled inland. Regardless of how it ultimately ends, this is not over yet.
i don't disagree and this is a similar look to those dud NAM runs from that jan 2022 storm before the qpf kicked back up. a situation with a lot of leverage where small tweaks have big ramifications
on the other hand, i'll tell ya, when you get a model suite like this it begins to feel like a canoe taking on water quicker than you can bail it out
hope the ensembles show some promise
severestorm
Member
This was the top Nino CIPS. The very top one had all rain for NC.
It was actually about 36 hours out with that January 2022 storm that we saw things adjust and more QPF getting pulled west. So certainly still time for things to change and personally I would definitely rather have the EURO where it is with the cold push.
NWMSGuy
Member
As some of the models are showing this storm moving into the Mid-South Sunday evening, I'm thinking we should start to see winter weather headlines out of Memphis overnight.