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Wintry January 14-16th storm potential.

LukeBarrette said:
These totals will be coming up based on short range and medium range models spitting out more and more with each run. Also I’ll be in Blacksburg starting tonight! Semester starts tuesday
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there it is!
 
On the road to Meridianville, AL. Which is north of Huntsville. Close to the AL/TN state line. Got a buddy that lives there so a free place to stay. Worried about mixing though and wondering if I should go further north
 
winterwx said:
models are pretty much useless now. Interesting precipitation is breaking out earlier than model guidance. Regardless of what happens they have been horrible. Literally trended in opposite direction.
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The models are never more accurate than literally right before the storm. Sure, maybe looking at actual OBS is insightful at this stage, but when we live and die by the models for days, then “throw them out” right before the storm just because they don’t show what we want, it always strikes me as a hard cope.
 
superjames1992 said:
The models are never more accurate than literally right before the storm. Sure, maybe looking at actual OBS is insightful at this stage, but when we live and die by the models for days, then “throw them out” right before the storm just because they don’t show what we want, it always strikes me as a hard cope.
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When I say they are useless. I’m saying it’s nowcasting time. I’m simply talking about the difference between them at such a short lead time.
 
The Mountain block in full force!
snku_acc-imp.us_ma.png
 
Am I missing something here? I’ve considered my area to pretty much be out of this since Thursday- curious as to what the logic is for this
 

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AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
248 PM EST Sun Jan 14 2024


...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 241 PM EST Sun Jan 14 2024

Key Messages

- A wintry mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain is
expected in northern Georgia between Monday and Tuesday
morning.

- The Winter Weather Advisory has been expanded southward to
account for potential light ice accumulations Tuesday morning.

- Expected slick spots on untreated roads, bridges and overpasses
in north Georgia Monday through Tuesday.
 
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
335 PM EST Sun Jan 14 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 319 PM EST Sun Jan 14 2024

Key Messages:

1. Increasing confidence in a heavy snowfall, especially Knoxville
and north, exact placement of highest amounts will depend on where
exactly snow band sets up.

2. Potential still exists for a mix of precipitation types along the
Georgia border, lending to moderate uncertainty on snowfall totals
in the southernmost counties.

3. Precipitation late Monday night into Tuesday morning might switch
to a light freezing drizzle as snow comes to an end.

Discussion:

Mostly sunny skies across eastern Tennessee currently will give way
to the clouds associated with the incoming snowstorm. Expecting snow
showers to begin moving into the valley tonight, sometime between
00z and 06z for first showers. HRRR is a little quicker than the
HREF mean, but siding on the side of caution given how timing has
gone thus far. It seems likely at this point that snow will stick
as temperatures will be falling below freezing as snow arrives.
Therefore last preparations for snow should be completed this
afternoon and early evening. With the guidance continuing the
trend today to move the start time of snow showers up, elected to
begin the warning at 00z tonight, the winter weather advisory in
North Carolina will remain 06z.

Snowfall has increased with this package, now expecting a broad
spectrum of 6 to 8 inches along and north of Interstate 40, with
another maximum along the Cumberland Plateau. This forecast is
slightly under the WPC guidance, and it seems likely that some
locations will accumulate higher amounts. Placement of these
localized higher snowfall amounts is uncertain depending on exact
placement of narrow bands of higher snowfall rates. The other
uncertainty in snow amounts continues to be along the border
counties with Georgia, where a brief mix of sleet seems probable
given the persistence in the high resolution guidance. For
temperatures tomorrow, stuck with persistence with the prior
shift. Some guidance, and the NBM, is warmer with the max
temperature, but it`s hard to reconcile that idea when no strong
advection is in place to power that warmth against the chilling
effect of ongoing snowfall.

Snow starts out tonight as generally scattered, and guidance has
indicated a lessening or pause before becoming more steady
stratiform snow with embedded bands during the daytime on Monday.
While the HREF doesn`t suggest any 1"/hr rates, steady snowfall will
lead to higher accumulations as Monday wears on. This translates
to road conditions steadily worsening, especially secondaries and
lesser frequented roads, as the day wears on. Monday night into
early Tuesday might feature light freezing drizzle on the backside
of the snow as moisture in the atmosphere lowers beneath the DGZ
and thus only supercooled water will fall. Ice accumulations with
this is expected to be a glaze at most.
 

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David Glenn with WTVC in Chattanooga just said MRX is going to bust basically and he didn’t think it was likely to hit 3-4 inches in Chattanooga…


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
chattweather said:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
335 PM EST Sun Jan 14 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 319 PM EST Sun Jan 14 2024

Key Messages:

1. Increasing confidence in a heavy snowfall, especially Knoxville
and north, exact placement of highest amounts will depend on where
exactly snow band sets up.

2. Potential still exists for a mix of precipitation types along the
Georgia border, lending to moderate uncertainty on snowfall totals
in the southernmost counties.

3. Precipitation late Monday night into Tuesday morning might switch
to a light freezing drizzle as snow comes to an end.

Discussion:

Mostly sunny skies across eastern Tennessee currently will give way
to the clouds associated with the incoming snowstorm. Expecting snow
showers to begin moving into the valley tonight, sometime between
00z and 06z for first showers. HRRR is a little quicker than the
HREF mean, but siding on the side of caution given how timing has
gone thus far. It seems likely at this point that snow will stick
as temperatures will be falling below freezing as snow arrives.
Therefore last preparations for snow should be completed this
afternoon and early evening. With the guidance continuing the
trend today to move the start time of snow showers up, elected to
begin the warning at 00z tonight, the winter weather advisory in
North Carolina will remain 06z.

Snowfall has increased with this package, now expecting a broad
spectrum of 6 to 8 inches along and north of Interstate 40, with
another maximum along the Cumberland Plateau. This forecast is
slightly under the WPC guidance, and it seems likely that some
locations will accumulate higher amounts. Placement of these
localized higher snowfall amounts is uncertain depending on exact
placement of narrow bands of higher snowfall rates. The other
uncertainty in snow amounts continues to be along the border
counties with Georgia, where a brief mix of sleet seems probable
given the persistence in the high resolution guidance. For
temperatures tomorrow, stuck with persistence with the prior
shift. Some guidance, and the NBM, is warmer with the max
temperature, but it`s hard to reconcile that idea when no strong
advection is in place to power that warmth against the chilling
effect of ongoing snowfall.

Snow starts out tonight as generally scattered, and guidance has
indicated a lessening or pause before becoming more steady
stratiform snow with embedded bands during the daytime on Monday.
While the HREF doesn`t suggest any 1"/hr rates, steady snowfall will
lead to higher accumulations as Monday wears on. This translates
to road conditions steadily worsening, especially secondaries and
lesser frequented roads, as the day wears on. Monday night into
early Tuesday might feature light freezing drizzle on the backside
of the snow as moisture in the atmosphere lowers beneath the DGZ
and thus only supercooled water will fall. Ice accumulations with
this is expected to be a glaze at most.
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6-8 inches forecast for Wise. Makes me wonder how much they might get up at High Knob at 4223'. They avg around 75 inches a Winter.

Screenshot 2024-01-14 4.22.36 PM.png
 
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