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Wintry January 14-16th storm potential.

I’ve seen the Euro cave with low amplification, so it being an outlier is not unusual. Remember February 2020? It was dry for NC/SC until about 24 hours out despite being the one to initially provide a signal.

I personally have a hard time seeing this storm being big east of the Apps in the southeast because of the way the PV is positioned out west. But, with the air mass, I see the potential for ZR to be a little bit higher in CAD favored regions.

I have a feeling someone is going to get NAM’d.
 
Looking like the better chances for GA folks will be north and west of the Hooch & in the mountains. Not sure if "strung out" is the right word or if there's a LP energy transfer that seems to happen off the coast of the Carolinas, but it just kinda looks like the moisture fizzles by the time it reaches other parts of GA with any cold air left over.
 
Clearly see the difference between the Euro/GFS...Euro has the upper low in/around Hudson Bay further south and GFS has more separation plus less forward tilted trough that digs a little further south. Usually you can almost always blend this to get where this is going but what this looks like we shall see.

Euro also has a strong piece of energy diving in over the ridge, not sure what that impacts downstream but it's a big difference from GFS

eurogfs.gif
 
Stevo24 said:
I just believe this is gonna change a good bit by the weekend once this next system gets out. Maybe not though idk.
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I agree, I just see it being one or the other. Either a big coastal low that we score and get lucky with like we saw on the 18z GFS or the cold air is not enough and the low runs inland and east of mountains get nothing but cold rain.
 
KyloG said:
Clearly see the difference between the Euro/GFS...Euro has the upper low in/around Hudson Bay further south and GFS has more separation plus less forward tilted trough that digs a little further south. Usually you can almost always blend this to get where this is going but what this looks like we shall see.

Euro also has a strong piece of energy diving in over the ridge, not sure what that impacts downstream but it's a big difference from GFS

View attachment 141675
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The euro was close to heading for glory for our area hereecmwf_z500_vort_us_39.png

But too much kicker collapses the trough and we just stay + tilt and meh
 
The 00z/06z EPS and 06z GEFS still show the three scenarios we've seen in various modeling over the past 24 hours: 1) mostly dry east of the apps with only a front end band west of the apps, 2) a warmer scenario with a coastal forming but cold press not enough except in the western Piedmont / Mountains east of the apps, and 3) there are still a handful of members on both ensembles that show the late blooming, explosive cyclogenesis solution that would favor the eastern Piedmont / Coastal Plain as cold gets wrapped into the system.

IMO, there's still time for it to go in any direction, but I definitely favor either 2 or 3.
 
1300m said:
The 00z/06z EPS and 06z GEFS still show the three scenarios we've seen in various modeling over the past 24 hours: 1) mostly dry east of the apps with only a front end band west of the apps, 2) a warmer scenario with a coastal forming but cold press not enough except in the western Piedmont / Mountains east of the apps, and 3) there are still a handful of members on both ensembles that show the late blooming, explosive cyclogenesis solution that would favor the eastern Piedmont / Coastal Plain as cold gets wrapped into the system.

IMO, there's still time for it to go in any direction, but I definitely favor either 2 or 3.
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The icon is doing us a solid and changing run to run and showing the various outcomes every 6 hours.

Look at what happens when you remove the kickericon_z500_vort_us_fh108_trend.gificon_mslp_pcpn_us_fh108_trend.gif
 
1300m said:
The 00z/06z EPS and 06z GEFS still show the three scenarios we've seen in various modeling over the past 24 hours: 1) mostly dry east of the apps with only a front end band west of the apps, 2) a warmer scenario with a coastal forming but cold press not enough except in the western Piedmont / Mountains east of the apps, and 3) there are still a handful of members on both ensembles that show the late blooming, explosive cyclogenesis solution that would favor the eastern Piedmont / Coastal Plain as cold gets wrapped into the system.

IMO, there's still time for it to go in any direction, but I definitely favor either 2 or 3.
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That’s what makes this a little frustrating, but honestly fun to track. Basically 4 days or so out and still so much to be determined and the pieces are there to really give us in the Carolinas something big. Couple that with the amount cold air coming in behind it and the pieces for another storm there just a few days later, if things would come together right, some folks could have basically full snow cover for a week or more.
 
If I lived north of a line from Texarkana ->oxford->florence->Chattanooga->Kingsport I'd be feeling good this morning. Along and north from shreveport->starkville->Birmingham->alpharetta->gsp->Clt->gso I'm feeling decent but hoping for the agreement and the minor changes. from Jackson->mgm->Augusta-cae->Fayetteville->rocky mount we need help
 
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