From RAH:
As we progress into the Monday night/early Tuesday timeframe,
guidance continues to differ wrt to a developing coastal low, and
the potential (or lack thereof) precipitation for our area. The 00Z
deterministic
ECMWF continues to keep the low too suppressed and
offshore to promote much of any precipitation for us. Conversely,
the 00Z
GFS does still keep the low strategically positioned to 1)
promote wet conditions and 2) a potential
gradient in winter ptype.
Latest
ensemble guidance (including the Euro suite) does depict
anywhere from 50 to 60 % of the members (GEFS, ENS, GEPS) simulating
some snow for much of our central/western/northern Piedmont anywhere
from late Monday night through late Tuesday night. Given this,
decided to maintain a southward progression of slight to chance of
rain and snow early Tuesday through early Wednesday morning
primarily through our northern two thirds. However, would like to
see more operational runs over the next several days before
providing any more detail.