Wintry January 14-16th storm potential.

[malak05]

Its definitly south woth the initial wave

 

[Flotown]

boy that shows moving in here tomorrow evening right?in northwest al that is

 

[BullCityWx]

@BIG FROSTY got almost 4” that HRRR run

 

[DopplerWx]

Man that precip band with just a brutal sharp cutoff for us in clt

 

[WSW]

 

[Cad Wedge NC]

Compared to 18Z it's further south.
View attachment 142121

Yes, there was a clear jump south from the 18z run.

 

[Pup12]

Still setting up a line near the Tennessee River here in north Alabama

 

[thanksgivingbrown]

Is it just me or has the HRRR had an uptick in totals for North Alabama

 

[LukeBarrette]

Very impressive HRRR run for western VA. Starts lightly snowing early monday and continues all the way till late monday and probably longer (run ended). So close for NC folks.

 

[WSW]

 

[ChattaVOL]

I want the HRRR to come a tad more south and I’ll feel good about Chattanooga.


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[BullCityWx]

I wouldn’t get too high or too low with where modeling shows this finger of precip. We all know in these overrunning situations they can be fickle

 

[malak05]

18z and 00z at 21z Sunday... Its early but this so far looks a jog south.

 

[WSW]

Yeah, and if you finish the run it brings snow to Northern Va and DC metro.

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

18z and 00z at 21z Sunday... Its early but this so far looks a jog south.
View attachment 142129
View attachment 142128

Agree. NAM south early on. We’ll see if it translates

 

[1” Ice storm 4 u]

Looking at the HRRR surface temps are horrible it barely goes below freezing just above the triad and then rises into the 40’s during the afternoon. Outside of the mountains and extreme nw NC this is basically a non event. anything that does fall will quickly melt. Hopefully people in the triad can see some flakes regardless.

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Looking at the HRRR surface temps are horrible it barely goes below freezing just above the triad and then rises into the 40’s during the afternoon. Outside of the mountains and extreme nw NC this is basically a non event. anything that does fall will quickly melt.

Don’t take the HRRR surface temps literal at this range. Known warm bias at this lead.

 

[DopplerWx]

Nam tick s over Tennessee early on

 

[Storm5]

No point in arguing north or south IMO we all know there are gonna be placement swings . There hasn’t been a huge shift either way.

 

[DopplerWx]

Mountains just kill us damnit

 

[PARSONBROWN]

well said storm

 

[strongwxnc]

I wouldn’t get too high or too low with where modeling shows this finger of precip. We all know in these overrunning situations they can be fickle

Yup. can and will be fickle for sure!

 

[Storm5]

00z nam looks very similar to 18z

 

[DopplerWx]

We absolutely suck in nc

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

00z nam looks very similar to 18z

Honestly, Pretty substantial south shift at this lead

 

[Ethan80963]

Had better tilt that run and more consolidation

 

[Storm5]

Let’s see if 00z pops the second area of precip in southern miss and Alabama

 

[Usmeagle2005]

Honestly, Pretty substantial south shift at this lead

I’ll be happy with another 40 miles shift. Baby steps, but we don’t have too many steps left.?

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

FWIW, 0Z hi-res GFS appears quite a bit south of its previous run.

 

[Nomanslandva]

NAM is tick south. What an odd system. HRRR had hours of SN but like .1 gpf. we'll see I guess.

 

[Snowfan]

GFS isn't out yet, what am I missing? And high res GFS?

He's referring to the FV3 hi-res.

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

GFS isn't out yet, what am I missing? And high res GFS?

It runs at 12Z and 00Z. It’s “FV3” on Tropical Tidbits.

 

[TheBatman]

???????

 

[Storm5]

I’ll take what the NAM is smoking

 

[malak05]

Well thats interesting for sure NAM just delivered 2 legit rounds of winter impacting weather to mid south and now parts of AL/GA

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

 

[malak05]

View attachment 142136
I’ll take what the NAM is smoking

Man thats alot IP and Frz Rain thru parts of central AL and parts of GA

 

[Stormlover]

View attachment 142136
I’ll take what the NAM is smoking

that map has sleet and freezing rain as snow, right?

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

Can we get a round two?

 

[SD]

Man this sucks doesnt need much more here