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Wintry January 14-16th storm potential.

RGEM. This is 10:1

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The damn thing is wonky AF sometimes but the GFS looks to have lead the way for a Winter Storm around these parts for a minute now. And for that, thank you NCEP. ?
 
Those of you who are taking snow "models" in the southeast as the gospel at 48 to 72 hours out. Are new to the game or fresh move-ins from regular weather pattern locations in other parts of the country. Watch the trends even 12 to 8 hours out these bands will shift north to south and south to north, dry to wet, wet to dry. There are a lot of factors at play. As been said many times if your in the bullseye now you're probably gonna miss out, or at least be sadly disappointed. Lows in the gulf are great for north alabama when perfectly positioned and of the right strength. To far west and it deepens to quickly, pushes WAA to far north too quickly and saturates the atmosphere with too much warmth leaving the trailing super cooled precipitation unable to cool the layers resulting in sleet/zr or typically good cold rain. If the Low forms too far south you loose the moisture influx and the front comes in drier for N Alabama and you end up with better snow further south. However, if all the pieces come together just right (For N Bama) and you can get a deepening low just off Apalachicola, FL and it move east across the panhandle, you pull cold air down quicker while moisture transport from the eastern gulf and Atlantic is thrown back over top enhancing the snowfall rates. March of 1993 would be a prime example of this environment.

All of that to say nobody knows until game time, it's fun to watch for now
But keep your emotion intact until game time. Then you'll know for sure! Cheers best of luck to us all!

Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and don't proclaim to be. I am however a 20 year weather weinnie who has learned as much as i could from sites like this and model watching and self educating. The above statement maybe in layman terms and not meteorological proper, but it is the way i have observed the best and worst winter events In our area for over 20 years.
 
I would suggest people to start looking at the saturation in the dgZ soon.

I'm not sold that some of these snow maps are actually snow if the cold air is drying the upper levels out
 
Hpdb301 said:
Those of you who are taking snow "models" in the southeast as the gospel at 48 to 72 hours out. Are new to the game or fresh move-ins from regular weather pattern locations in other parts of the country. Watch the trends even 12 to 8 hours out these bands will shift north to south and south to north, dry to wet, wet to dry. There are a lot of factors at play. As been said many times if your in the bullseye now you're probably gonna miss out, or at least be sadly disappointed. Lows in the gulf are great for north alabama when perfectly positioned and of the right strength. To far west and it deepens to quickly, pushes WAA to far north too quickly and saturates the atmosphere with too much warmth leaving the trailing super cooled precipitation unable to cool the layers resulting in sleet/zr or typically good cold rain. If the Low forms too far south you loose the moisture influx and the front comes in drier for N Alabama and you end up with better snow further south. However, if all the pieces come together just right (For N Bama) and you can get a deepening low just off Apalachicola, FL and it move east across the panhandle, you pull cold air down quicker while moisture transport from the eastern gulf and Atlantic is thrown back over top enhancing the snowfall rates. March of 1993 would be a prime example of this environment.

All of that to say nobody knows until game time, it's fun to watch for now
But keep your emotion intact until game time. Then you'll know for sure! Cheers best of luck to us all!

Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and don't proclaim to be. I am however a 20 year weather weinnie who has learned as much as i could from sites like this and model watching and self educating. The above statement maybe in layman terms and not meteorological proper, but it is the way i have observed the best and worst winter events In our area for over 20 years.
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Apples and oranges. The wimpy LP we're dealing with this time isn't even on the same planet as the 93 triple-phaser.

The way Alabama overachieves is the shallow arctic air pushes further south and east and the overrunning precip advertised winds up being underdone as is often the case. Ice baby ice save for extreme northern areas of Mississippi, Alabama, and perhaps NW Georgia.
 
Hpdb301 said:
Those of you who are taking snow "models" in the southeast as the gospel at 48 to 72 hours out. Are new to the game or fresh move-ins from regular weather pattern locations in other parts of the country. Watch the trends even 12 to 8 hours out these bands will shift north to south and south to north, dry to wet, wet to dry. There are a lot of factors at play. As been said many times if your in the bullseye now you're probably gonna miss out, or at least be sadly disappointed. Lows in the gulf are great for north alabama when perfectly positioned and of the right strength. To far west and it deepens to quickly, pushes WAA to far north too quickly and saturates the atmosphere with too much warmth leaving the trailing super cooled precipitation unable to cool the layers resulting in sleet/zr or typically good cold rain. If the Low forms too far south you loose the moisture influx and the front comes in drier for N Alabama and you end up with better snow further south. However, if all the pieces come together just right (For N Bama) and you can get a deepening low just off Apalachicola, FL and it move east across the panhandle, you pull cold air down quicker while moisture transport from the eastern gulf and Atlantic is thrown back over top enhancing the snowfall rates. March of 1993 would be a prime example of this environment.

All of that to say nobody knows until game time, it's fun to watch for now
But keep your emotion intact until game time. Then you'll know for sure! Cheers best of luck to us all!

Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and don't proclaim to be. I am however a 20 year weather weinnie who has learned as much as i could from sites like this and model watching and self educating. The above statement maybe in layman terms and not meteorological proper, but it is the way i have observed the best and worst winter events In our area for over 20 years.
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Well said.
 
So obviously there is still a major difference between the globals and the hi-res......but has anybody been able to distinguish what the difference is?
 
RoddyPiper said:
So obviously there is still a major difference between the globals and the hi-res......but has anybody been able to distinguish what the difference is?
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No, but that is what makes it fun. It is kinda like a puzzle you have to put the pieces together.
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
Apples and oranges. The wimpy LP we're dealing with this time isn't even on the same planet as the 93 triple-phaser.

The way Alabama overachieves is the shallow arctic air pushes further south and east and the overrunning precip advertised winds up being underdone as is often the case. Ice baby ice save for extreme northern areas of Mississippi, Alabama, and perhaps NW Georgia.
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THINKING OUTLOUD HERE FOR PURE DISCUSSION. CAUTION ALWAYS LEARNING HERE!!! I agree but they do have influence on snow in our area. In no way was I suggesting by any measure this approaching system being anywhere in the realm of 93. (My Opinion upcoming)Most decent overrunning events seem to be more successful from I-20 corridor south. It's strange but my personal observations seem to have most over running events falling short for North Alabama. There have
Been a few, but nothing of real significance that I can recall from memory. (Most forecasts seem to bust) this conversation does make me ask why would that be? Part of me thinks the WAA slows the frontal passage allowing better cooling and enhanced moisture influx allowing for the wetbulb effect to take place and cool thenlayers of the atmosphere enough to get decent snow. Where as further north the push of the WAA is not as strong allowing for complete frontal passage before wetbulbing which subsequently leaves cold air chasing precipitation. Or on the other hand the cold drier airmass dries the atmosphere as it heads south and it arrives dried up. These are thoughts coming out loud for discussion in hopes of learning something so someone teach me something!
 
Nomanslandva said:
Yea, I don't think the RAP is sophisticated enough to realize downsloping is going to kill gpf down here in the valley. I hope I am wrong and we get a few inches but not excited about things as they are right this second.
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RAP always runs very wet
 
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Brad Travis WAFF 48 Meteorologist​

44m ·
It’s been a long time since I have seen such consistently from the long range models. This is the Saturday afternoon European model. It has an inch of snow on the ground in Huntsville by 9am Monday. A large area of 4-6” by Tuesday morning. I will have a YouTube live from my channel Sunday.
 
Will be interesting to see if today was a blip (over correction) or if the ticks back north continue. Could be jumps or models getting a better understanding of the environment after the last storm. Will be interesting to see how the 00z model runs go.
 
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