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Wintry January 14-16th storm potential.

I still can’t get over the difference in the short term high res models and the globals. Every short term high res plasters Nashville while the globals have us on the outer edge of the heaviest precipitation. Going to be a fun one to see who wins regardless. This one has huge excitement surprises for some and major disappointment for others.
 
olhausen said:
I still can’t get over the difference in the short term high res models and the globals. Every short term high res plasters Nashville while the globals have us on the outer edge of the heaviest precipitation. Going to be a fun one to see who wins regardless. This one has huge excitement surprises for some and major disappointment for others.
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Thats the way they always are around here
 
olhausen said:
For sure on the surprises. I don’t know if I ever remember the short and long term models being this much at war though this close to go time. At least for my area anyways.
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Ive seen it before.. same type overruning band.. ive seen hi rez come in b4 and have the band over my area but globals being stubborn on a solution they had for a couple days.. i get excited thinking hi rez has it only for them to trend towards the globals with time
 
TheBatman said:
Good thing it is the nam. I got my chips in with a blend of the the euro and SREF.
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NAM has done really well with placement of precip this winter. Especially long range, but short range as well. Globals had to play catch up on both my events! GFS had kicked out 23” totals for some places 2 days out, was closer to 10” verification
 
olhausen said:
I still can’t get over the difference in the short term high res models and the globals. Every short term high res plasters Nashville while the globals have us on the outer edge of the heaviest precipitation. Going to be a fun one to see who wins regardless. This one has huge excitement surprises for some and major disappointment for others.
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To be fair the high res are at the extended range . So we will see
 
Storm5 said:
To be fair the high res are at the extended range . So we will see
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Thats what i feel.. they have time to shift.. honestly i feel hi rez is good for details after all the ingredients come together but globals are better at how they come together
 
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I’ll take my 1-2 in bburg. Interesting they are going <1 for the entire southern region. Shows how uncertain they are
 
Twister said:
Cold air what I've been saying, But I was put down and told Cold Air wasn't the issue across upstate

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Just looking at the soundings from the upstate, it appears that if there is precip Monday night it should be snow. Even without precip, 850s very close if not already below freezing and if the overrunning sets, just the cooling of the column caused by overrunning would get it below freezing.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
This GFS run looks like the pause to the south trend. slightly north so far
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Yep
1705395600-KX5rvHcCSu4.png
 
Memphis doesn’t mention much in the way of the Ice/Sleet showing in the short term models. They also mention the heaviest of snow will be south of I-40 in their afternoon AFD.
 
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