Wintry January 14-16th storm potential.

[rburrel2]

The end of the NAM. I don't think other models had the IP/ZR over Texas. Also it's a lot colder for Monday morning, at least for NC.

The Dgex would have been a beaut if it still ran.

Great confluence and cold press out in front, low level cold air has pushed really far south, that initial small shortwave out in front of our northern stream wave is held back and seems to be working more in tandem with the northern vort dropping down. I think it would be a good hit.

 

[rburrel2]

Don't wanna over analyze the Nam too much, but its dew points are way way colder compared to the GFS, CAD area's would definitely be looking at ice Tuesday morning even if it wound up being too warm aloft for snow; as depicted.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Icon making the same move as the nam with the wave that brings our cold press. closed off over montana

 

[CaryWx]

cold moving in more quickly?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[CaryWx]

press looks flatter?

 

[iGRXY]

View attachment 141563View attachment 141564

Northern stream showing more separation and the trailing vort is quickly gaining strength

 

[1300m]

Northern stream showing more separation and the trailing vort is quickly gaining strength

That little stream of vorticity I discussed previously is more vigorous on this run too. ICON going to test my theory right out of the gate here possibly.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Just doesn’t tilt enough and then turn the corner. Meh

 

[Cary_Snow95]

That’s a nod to the euro

 

[SimeonNC]

Baby Steps

 

[CNCsnwfan1210]

00z RGEM at hour 84

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[iGRXY]

This is sad to say honestly but these days I don’t want to even see snow or any wintery precip showing up until I’m at least 72 hours in. The way these models flip flop around even inside that timeframe causes pretty big changes even in the short term. And as we’ve seen, being in the jackpot at day 3 or even 2 usually is fools gold.

 

[accu35]

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Icon has some light snow in NC from the vort moving through. But damn it’s like… damn. We’re so close we just need a little bit of luck. This makes me want to commit CBT

 

[Twister]

This is sad to say honestly but these days I don’t want to even see snow or any wintery precip showing up until I’m at least 72 hours in. The way these models flip flop around even inside that timeframe causes pretty big changes even in the short term. And as we’ve seen, being in the jackpot at day 3 or even 2 usually is fools gold.

Models will start getting a better hold on this After tomorrows system moves through

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[CaryWx]

Models will start getting a better hold on this After tomorrows system moves through

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Was my thinking earlier today. Right now trending towards dampening out anything from developing. See where the 0z gfs goes I guess.

 

[jrips27]

 

[iGRXY]

Better press further east and more ridging out west. See where it goes