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Wintry January 14-16th storm potential.

I am almost 100% sure the reason that finger of snow is trending south is related to models being to weak with the TPV over the northern plains/Montana until go time, and it’s starting to translate. Remember, that moves east and suppresses the height field. So it makes sense things are going south, because it’s stronger at go time then what models have 6BD4CD4E-955A-4BA8-8F99-3EB3A7040FE1.gif
 
This thing is drying up on the models pretty quickly it would seem. I’m guessing the further south it is shunted, the tilt and dynamics become less favorable. Puts my in a better position for snow in Chattanooga. Overrunning is notoriously under-modeled precip wise a lot of the time so I’m very interested to actually watch this one play out. Nowcast should be fun with this one lol
 
Chattownsnow said:
This thing is drying up on the models pretty quickly it would seem. I’m guessing the further south it is shunted, the tilt and dynamics become less favorable. Puts my in a better position for snow in Chattanooga. Overrunning is notoriously under-modeled precip wise a lot of the time so I’m very interested to actually watch this one play out. Nowcast should be fun with this one lol
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We just need the NAM to get on board.


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Chattownsnow said:
This thing is drying up on the models pretty quickly it would seem. I’m guessing the further south it is shunted, the tilt and dynamics become less favorable. Puts my in a better position for snow in Chattanooga. Overrunning is notoriously under-modeled precip wise a lot of the time so I’m very interested to actually watch this one play out. Nowcast should be fun with this one lol
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This is true... overrunning events always do good for us.. just getting in the band is key
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I am almost 100% sure the reason that finger of snow is trending south is related to models being to weak with the TPV over the northern plains/Montana until go time, and it’s starting to translate. Remember, that moves east and suppresses the height field. So it makes sense things are going south, because it’s stronger at go time then what models have View attachment 141996
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What are your thoughts on this continued suppression south of the snow band over TN/AL?
 
AlabamaWxWatcher said:
I-20 corridor in Alabama could be caught off guard if this thing shifts south at the last minute. What a close call..
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Highly unlikely that every single model, including all of their Ensemble members are missing the snow that bad. If anything, maybe hwy 278 gets caught off guard in the eastern parts of AL
 
ColdCoreLow said:
Not really that close for snow… maybe some light pingers and a little ZR
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Not quite, it all depends on what wave you are looking at. The only real threat with snow for the AL I20 corridor is hoping you get a greater expansion of precip with the second overrunning batch. Not something you want to bet on but definitely not impossible.

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I’ve seen so many overrunning events like this (Dec 2017, Jan 28-29 2014, Feb 11 2014, Feb 12-13 2010, etc.) trend north at the last minute, not really worried at all about model details, even at this range.

All that matters is the setup, and it can definitely support a last minute low-moderate impact snow/ice event late Tuesday into Wednesday, even in NC
 
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