Wintry January 14-16th storm potential.

[Myfrotho704_]

Best I’ve seen since 2022 here. I don’t care about how light members are, I just care about agreement at this range

 

[JLL1973]

View attachment 141487Memphis still holding back, well for the Tupelo area.

i been saying for a while the highest amounts will be along and north of the I40 corridor

 

[severestorm]

CIPS snow map

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Didn’t realize this was getting into nam range. The amount of uncertainty for this being pretty close is incredible

 

[MichaelJ]

The 12Z EURO is suppressing this thing way south and out to sea while all the other models disagree with it for the most part

 

[Myfrotho704_]

?

 

[NCSNOW]

Ha, I've been saying the opposite. I want the ridge to rollover in SW Canada to give us a little more positive tilt on the trough, then have it yank to neutral just in time. If not, we get the inland solution of the UKMet. Also, the Euro has more press southeast with the heights thru Ohio and PA, so both are factors. Mid-South areas will want the UKMet solution

My mental pic Im drawing is like the 12z GFS. I hear you though. Wanted the SW back out over the pacific

 

[Webberweather53]

Glad to see I wasn’t crazy last week for thinking this had a chance for folks even in the Carolinas. Reel it in!

 

[severestorm]

Glad to see I wasn’t crazy last week for thinking this had a chance for folks even in the Carolinas. Reel it in!

Do you think it might wind up something like this? This was a top CIPS analog

 

[mrdaddyman]

Ha, I've been saying the opposite. I want the ridge to rollover in SW Canada to give us a little more positive tilt on the trough, then have it yank to neutral just in time. If not, we get the inland solution of the UKMet. Also, the Euro has more press southeast with the heights thru Ohio and PA, so both are factors. Mid-South areas will want the UKMet solution

I'm confused with how the UK is giving us an inland solution. I thought a cutter, amped or not, was pretty much off the table because of the massive block that will be in place and the LP that will be in front of the system in the NE. I guess maybe the UKMET is placing the LP too far North to prevent the storm from cutting.

 

[iGRXY]

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Still icon tilts to late, doesn’t dig enough

 

[Chazwin]

NWS GSP now has R/S in the grids for most of the Piedmont of NC

GSP didn’t get info to much detail in their discussion… probably more focused on tomorrow right now… they did say it was something to keep an eye on

 

[MichaelJ]

Here is the EURO OP 10 day snow total

 

[Myfrotho704_]

TPV is turned out to be deeper then what even what the GFS had 24-36 hours ago

 

[Chazwin]

I mentioned this previously, but you can thank the block for that. I would like for everyone reading this board to just step back, take a deep breath, and behold a true, west-based NAO block. We've gone years and years without seeing this. I think we should pause for a moment to enjoy.

So many winters, we just hope and pray for a little ridging up there somewhere. A block like this is not going to be quick to break down and move out. It's good to remember that, because as long as it's there and of that magnitude, things in the modeling are going to have more of a tendency to press south than they usually do, as we move in closer...up to a point, at least.

View attachment 141481

I remember Matthew East talking a lot about this exact look back in the winter of 2009-10. Anytime the largest heights are set up over Baffin Bay, he said was the best for Carolina winter storms

 

[Webberweather53]

TPV is turned out to be deeper then what even what the GFS had 24-36 hours ago View attachment 141501

Can confirm the initial trough over me in New Mexico is definitely stronger

 

[troyc]

Can confirm the initial trough over me in New Mexico is definitely stronger

What does this mean for VA for the 16-17 storm?

 

[DopplerWx]

 

[DopplerWx]

Man