Storm5
Member
These cmc totals are gonna be nuts . It’s trying to really crank. Gfs had 10 hours plus of snow in Huntsville, cmc is gonna have even longer
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Wintry January 14-16th storm potential.
- Thread starter TheBatman
- Start date
So which model do you believe?? Heck it almost like pick the model showing the most in your backyard. lol
I figure Huntsville will be putting most of North Alabama of winter storm watches in their morning package.
Starting tomorrow 12z some of the short range models will be coming in good range and will see what happens.
Another trend I'm noticing in all guidance is the core of the TPV is trending south each run. This probably partly responsible for some of the south trends seen overall, but could also really change things for further east areas if this could continue.
also not to be a buzzkill but if you're in MS/AL and the nam spit out sleet for you, and you think it's overdoing things... i feel like this meme
seen a lot of forecasts go sour from people not respecting the nam's thermals
seen a lot of forecasts go sour from people not respecting the nam's thermals
Will this make the precip trend further south for the western areas of the southeast?
Storm5
Member
CMC ice
Interesting 
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I don’t know how many times…also not to be a buzzkill but if you're in MS/AL and the nam spit out sleet for you, and you think it's overdoing things... i feel like this meme
seen a lot of forecasts go sour from people not respecting the nam's thermals
IMO - if this trend continues then more south trends overall will continue.
Darklordsuperstorm
Member
That would be lights out
Dang, it amazing with the swath of snow that the GFS and CMC has. Almost identical.
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GEM really almost got it there
JLL1973
Member
Seems to be a slight adjustment southward on all the models tonight
I could that being a possibility considering this is an arctic airmass that’s coming in.
Models really elongating the energy, which is a right direction for areas east, now add the cherry on top and tilt it
Storm5
Member
I honestly think a blend wouldn’t be a bad idea at the moment. Even with a more positive tilt trough the gfs you would think the gfs would still have a larger precip field like the rgem and cmc have. But not apples to apples at H5 . Still being 54 hours plus out so much can go wrong lol . So get out your lucky coin , flip it and call heads or tails
Storm5
Member
That’s the thing just a little more tilt and it’s a bigger deal for 80 percent of the board
Yea I just thinking the same thing. Kinda strange on how narrow that precip field is. You usually don’t see that much.
NCSNOW
Member
Be nice if that finger off the first wave that showed up east of apps tonight on cmc,gfs can verify. Its been leaving TN an fizzleing out up in wva, va, On all runs till just now. Thanks to the south push trend.
Got 2 1/2 days to make it happen. Point of no return would probably be 12z runs Sunday.
GFS temps Wednesday morning. That’s really chilly where it snows
Another version of what has already been posted, but south trend with initial precip band and colder in recent runs. Arctic air doing its thang I guess
LOL Brad Travis in Huntsville just said someone in North Alabama could have 10 inches depending on track. ???
??. I don’t think would have said that on air. Of course he said the track so go further north or south.
??. I don’t think would have said that on air. Of course he said the track so go further north or south.
Going to need the @bouncycorn model this weekend
YALL CAN KEEP THE SNOW AND ICE.. I WORK IN PUBLIC SAFETY AND AT A 9-1-1 DISPATCH CENTER. PEOPLE CANT DRIVE WHEN IT'S DRY AND THE'RE ALL WANTING SNOW.. ILL HAVE TO WORK 9-1-1 WHEN THIS IS HAPPENING AND IF THE FZR VERIFIES THEN ILL BE SPENDING MONDAY AND TUESDAY AT WORK THEN POSS MY OFF DAYS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HERE... 
JLL1973
Member
Gefs snow mean
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LickWx
Member
As an EMS worker I hear you brother! Amen! Light rain is enough for 10 overturns to go out and wipe out all ambulances and keep us running our tails off all night! Tell em!YALL CAN KEEP THE SNOW AND ICE.. I WORK IN PUBLIC SAFETY AND AT A 9-1-1 DISPATCH CENTER. PEOPLE CANT DRIVE WHEN IT'S DRY AND THE'RE ALL WANTING SNOW.. ILL HAVE TO WORK 9-1-1 WHEN THIS IS HAPPENING AND IF THE FZR VERIFIES THEN ILL BE SPENDING MONDAY AND TUESDAY AT WORK THEN POSS MY OFF DAYS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HERE...
Yes it looks in line with GFS. About a 25 mile shift south vs the 18z GEFS.
Storm5
Member
That’s the 12z cmc ensembles
NCSNOW
Member
Oz Ukmet doesnt press futher south like other ops have trended tonight. Sends the front end finger out of TN up into wva,va. Thats the part im chasing now for own back yard. Trying to score scraps. If a coastal gets going or overruning second energy,then its icing on cake
With respect to the late-blooming coastal cranking precip back inland, I still say the most important thing is this reverse S shape from Western Canada down to Kansas. Increase the curvature in both arrows and we'll have a sharper wave at the base of the trough <AND> it will arrive later when it is colder
JLL1973
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accu35
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It actually went a little south
Grit - do you think this trend will continue and that initial band will keep trending south? Not sure if you have any thoughts on the cold press
tennessee storm
Member
Feeling really good for big
Snow I 40 corridor Memphis Nashville