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Wintry January 14-16th storm potential.

Not sure if that's better? It's gotten colder but drier. Running that difficult balance of cold, and shredding the wave.
whether you see this as glass half full or glass half empty depends on your latitude

deeper south is probably happy to be handed a ticket to the game

mid-south (myself included) is unhappy that our EPS totals just got a 30% reduction

just happy to have something to gawk at next few days. first real threat for lots of us since that storm in jan 2022 (22nd? 23rd?)
 
To me this reminds me a lot of the 2014 winter storm that caused the ATL snow jam. Wasn’t a big system but had widespread snow
Looking back, it did have some pretty good totals in ENC as it wound up, similar to what some ens members have
0FE4CEF1-37AA-4999-A9EF-A59F047705BE.pngECFB5370-CA27-49CF-821C-81B795894733.gif
 
To me this reminds me a lot of the 2014 winter storm that caused the ATL snow jam. Wasn’t a big system but had widespread snow
Looking back, it did have some pretty good totals in ENC as it wound up, similar to what some ens members have
View attachment 141473View attachment 141474
January 28th-29th 2014. The one thing that storm had going for it was we had really really cold ground temps because of the previous ten days.
 
To me this reminds me a lot of the 2014 winter storm that caused the ATL snow jam. Wasn’t a big system but had widespread snow
Looking back, it did have some pretty good totals in ENC as it wound up, similar to what some ens members have
View attachment 141473View attachment 141474
distinctly remember that storm for having some of the most ludicrous clown maps of my life. four days out and the CMC was spitting out 4 inches of frozen qpf for places like savannah. weather channel shipped cantore out to charleston for ice (that was a bust). in raleigh we were thinking 3-6 inches of pixie dust (we got 2.6 or something like that).

agreed with similarities but i need to see a 24 inch bullseye over fayetteville before I really get excited (and no joke that was was half the ops runs were spitting out for that storm)
 
Does anyone else feel this is somewhat similar to the Boxing Day storm that got squashed until the last 24 hours? I'm not sure if the pattern is similar or not. We are in the ballgame at least.
Yes. Mainly in that a minor adjustment in wave strength from energy that isn't onshore yet can take this from 0 to 100.
 
To me this reminds me a lot of the 2014 winter storm that caused the ATL snow jam. Wasn’t a big system but had widespread snow
Looking back, it did have some pretty good totals in ENC as it wound up, similar to what some ens members have
View attachment 141473View attachment 141474
Yeah, that's a good one, I was trying to think of nino's but this is close.

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Yeah, that's a good, I was trying to think of nino's but this is close.

View attachment 141475View attachment 141476
Yep. I can’t recall many more setups like this that had the low/TPV around Hudson Bay for NC snow, we’re getting lucky with the trough pivoting around acting in a way as our cold feed. It’s definitely different from the traditional Atlantic Canada vortex in most of our setups
 
Best EPS run yet. Really wierd to see favorable cold trends as we approach normally it’s the opposite View attachment 141462View attachment 141463
I mentioned this previously, but you can thank the block for that. I would like for everyone reading this board to just step back, take a deep breath, and behold a true, west-based NAO block. We've gone years and years without seeing this. I think we should pause for a moment to enjoy.

So many winters, we just hope and pray for a little ridging up there somewhere. A block like this is not going to be quick to break down and move out. It's good to remember that, because as long as it's there and of that magnitude, things in the modeling are going to have more of a tendency to press south than they usually do, as we move in closer...up to a point, at least.

ecmwf_z500a_namer_44.png
 
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