SimeonNC
Member
This is gonna sound weird but I wonder if the warm gulf will affect precip for those in the Mid-South. Whether it be more qpf or more of a warm-nose or both
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Wintry January 14-16th storm potential.
- Thread starter TheBatman
- Start date
Yes it’s a weenie statement but it’s also true. I mean was just saw it happen two years ago in about half the time we’re at now.
Hm true, always screwed me in Raleigh w 850s but wonder if it can help those folks w more expansive precip
accu35
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Good chance at ice
I do think a lot of us south of northern AL, northern MS, TN, and AR will have an ice event. Maybe some of us will get some sleet to mix in to. But it's just not a deep south snow event, unfortunately.
Torturing myself at this point
From Brad p. Unreal
iGRXY
Member
Lololol the NAM is digging more this run.
SimeonNC
Member
Interesting that the NAM has snow that far north
Is it digging more. So what does that mean on the surface??
No doubt a NAMing is on the horizon
Purely for entertainment purposes, but it sure appears the 00z NAM would have been more amped than the 18z Euro control down the road. Be interesting to see if the 00z GFS also takes a step in this direction (late bloomer Tuesday into Wednesday with more snow in Carolinas).
That the euro is king.
Seriously though its a tough look for your guys slightly more WAA and the best fgen potentially getting tucked right against the TN/Al/ms border
You’d think precip would be more expansive west but idk
One sliver of hope is all those years droughts ended in late January or February. But that is just pathetic imo to go that long without even a trace.
Flotown
Member
good for far nwest bama?
Flotown
Member
looks like bunch of sleet for north al
So similar to jan 2022, having to rely on tilting energy to throw precip back west
There's a lot of WAA aloft I'm afraid that a lot of you guys in Bama are sleet/freezing rain that might end as a little snow especially north and west
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Flotown
Member
Flotown
Member
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Can’t remember how did the models look this far out then? Cant remember if they ever showed a hit and backed off or if it was slight adjustments to go time
If it's warmer aloft versus the rest it's usually a red flag that it might be on to something but it does have a tendency to over amp/overdo waa
Phil Connors
Member
I’m not buying zr/ip as precip type here in AL. Too much arctic air rushing south.
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Went from weenie runs, to suppression under 100, to runs showing nothing except for freezing drizzle back on the coast, back to a solid snow event under 48. Biggest flop ever from the NAM and HRRR. @jackendrickwx has the nam trend gif when it came back
Flotown
Member
Yea I think literally the day before I had no hope for us in clt and then the hrrr started a massive shift
It was a storm that was just basically going to be for coastal sections only until about 36 hours before the storm
Nomanslandva
Member
Arctic is often very shallow. I was on a business trip to Denver one time and the temperature in town was near zero while at the ski resorts at higher elevations just to the west, it was in the lower 30s
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RGEM actually gets precip over the mountains and most of NC along and north of 85 sees a little snow.
That and the cold can't get over the pass. I've experienced the same thing, 25 in Breck, drove down to Denver and it was 8. It was bizarre.
Fantastic storm in the upstate
olhausen
Member
2nd run in a row that the nam has the heaviest precipitation further north.
I mean during the last few days we have gone from over amped and almost completely flipped to under so there is a good possibility we’ve seen an over correction on models and we see trends back towards something, but only time will tell. Just goes to tell the changes that can happen fast and small adjustments can make for big outcomes. I do think we’re seeing this already as some of the new model outcomes look to be trying to throw more precip back inland.
EPS from a few days ago. Lots of amped up members with lots of precip farther inland
18z GFS barely getting precip. inland
EPS from a few days ago. Lots of amped up members with lots of precip farther inland
18z GFS barely getting precip. inland