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Wintry January 14-16th storm potential.

Chazwin said:
It’s not really a NW trend that we need based on the EURO and GFS… we need that to go neutral and then negative tilt few hours earlier so that it pulls moisture inland over the Carolinas
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Something that won’t be known until the wave is on land and honestly probably not until 24-36 hours out from us out here also. It’s a wait and see game at this point
 
There's a few members that want to develop a coastal low and put a few flakes down
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Quick question. That sharp cutoff on the models that’s showing up…is that a transition to ice or is that where they’re thinking the precipitation will sharply drop to just flurries?
 
iGRXY said:
Something that won’t be known until the wave is on land and honestly probably not until 24-36 hours out from us out here also. It’s a wait and see game at this point
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Very true. It reminds a little but of the 1/21-22/2022 storm that the models didn’t start catching on to the tilt of the trough until about 48 hours or so out.
 
SimeonNC said:
This tweet is interesting and echoes your statement.

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I’ve come to learn that if you’re sitting pretty at this lead time, your heart will probably get broken. Not saying I end up getting snow, but it definitely will not surprise me to see our trough go neutral tilt sooner and therefore get more precip further north showing up by Sunday. All I have to go on is that models seem to swing wildly from one extreme to the other and if you’re in the honey hole at day 2-5, you’ll probably get your heart broken these past few years.
 
I don’t have access to maps but it seems NW GA could get a good coating of ice even with the shift north.
 
Continuing to see small gains at H5 for redevelopment over the east. Now seeing the beginning of the surface reflections to go with it on the 18z Euro control. It ain't much, but it's a start. Check out that Outer Banks swath...

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1300m said:
Continuing to see small gains at H5 for redevelopment over the east. Now seeing the beginning of the surface reflections to go with it on the 18z Euro control. It ain't much, but it's a start. Check out that Outer Banks swath...

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One thing I noted is the cold 850 and surface temps. You wouldn’t likely need a whole lot to squeeze out something from the atmosphere.
 
BullCityWx said:
One thing I noted is the cold 850 and surface temps. You wouldn’t likely need a whole lot to squeeze out something from the atmosphere.
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Nope. Right at the tail end the 18z euro control really tried to get precip redevelopment going (thus that slightly enhanced swath along the coast line). Just a little bit more of the same and a 2-4 inch "spire-like" event would be on the table.

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1300m said:
Continuing to see small gains at H5 for redevelopment over the east. Now seeing the beginning of the surface reflections to go with it on the 18z Euro control. It ain't much, but it's a start. Check out that Outer Banks swath...

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It’s the weenie in me I know BUT we have come back from worse with less lead time so I’ll keep a sliver of hope
 
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