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Wintry January 14-16th storm potential.

Biggest thing was getting the cold press in the east better and we've done that so far. The EURO also is getting closer and closer to stream separation. We are perfectly situated with precip just off the coast and plenty of time for it to drive north, especially for overrunning where those details won't be ironed out until 24-36 HRs out.
 
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Perfect look at this lead time
 
The euro is really on an island with the sheared out suppressive look. Ukmet/CMC/GFS all have a storm cranking up the coast at 120 hrs.

Essentially the euro is too much of a good thing with respect to the cold press out in front. Probably a good thing at this point though. I'm much more concerned with not enough cold air and a quicker tracking system that pulls northeast too fast.
 
iGRXY said:
Biggest thing was getting the cold press in the east better and we've done that so far. The EURO also is getting closer and closer to stream separation. We are perfectly situated with precip just off the coast and plenty of time for it to drive north, especially for overrunning where those details won't be ironed out until 24-36 HRs out.
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This right here. Get the cold in and then hope the precip over performs.
 
Both the GFS and CMC have a 973mb low over maine at 144hr.

The Euro has a 1004 mb low northeast of bermuda at the same time?
 
Darklordsuperstorm said:
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this is what it says, it's from Chris Lisaukis of Eyes to the sky Weather, and he is very good at this stuff:
Snow amounts on the increase? Some of the Global models are developing a surface low over the gulf of Mexico which would likely increase our snow totals in the Tennessee Valley for Monday/Tuesday. I believe this trend will likely continue as the high altitude jet stream pattern strongly favors the development of such a low pressure feature along the temperature gradient (baroclinicity) which will exist. I wouldn't be at all surprised if model forecasted snow amounts increase over the next few days as models continue to resolve. As of now, my gut is telling me we'll see 4-6" along and north of the Tennessee River; however, as you know, this prediction will likely change some over the coming days.
Please begin to prepare for relatively extreme conditions across the area next week as snow and the potential for prolonged extreme cold exist. I don't like hype, and I avoid it at all cost, but this event should be on your radar.
 
will continue to beat this drum, bc this is the risk the euro shows:

bringing down heights ahead of the storm and weakening the SER sounds great until you need something to sharpen the trough with. no coincidence that we lost basically all of our lift. and i feel like this is a board-wide risk.

in years past this is a great look, but last few years it feels like we've lost storms to strong cold press/positive tilts more frequently than i'm comfortable with to call this a great look.

interested in the ensembles but wouldn't be surprised to see the qpf trail trickle south with returns more muted
 
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