Wintry January 14-16th storm potential.

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[NCSNOW]

If the 0z Canadian short range is any indicator. The canadian op is gonna bury the southern part of the appalachian trail tonight

 

[accu35]

Icon first ice map for south bama

 

[1300m]

I'm shocked the ICON doesn't have more precip....



Just some minor adjustments....

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

View attachment 141869

don’t do this to me. I’ve endured enough

 

[SD]

View attachment 141869

 

[CaryWx]

Looks like some solid change on icon from 18z

 

[accu35]

Does anyone have a ice map from the Icon for Al/MS

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

I’ll say it. Idk how Extreme ENC EVA doesn’t see some snow from this.

 

[JLL1973]

Icon starts the 12z suites off pretty good

 

[SD]

 

[Ross]

Dog I saw the changes at h5 on the icon from 18z to 00z and audibly gasped I gotta get home

 

[CNCsnwfan1210]

Backing it up

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[CaryWx]

Yeah but warm air coming in with it. Won't hold though with press down

 

[NCSNOW]

Best looking one ive seen so far tonight at 84hrs. Shame it didnt go out futher. V/s Icon, Nam

 

[accu35]

 

[CNCsnwfan1210]

A few frames later though...

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[iGRXY]

Yeah the ICON should’ve had more precip in my opinion

 

[Triplephase93]

QPF looking drastically reduced on most models.

 

[CaryWx]

Knew when I saw that vort digging. Just not quite enough

 

[JoshuaMurrayWX]

RGEM looked better for NGA. But that doesn’t mean a lot at this point in time.

 

[JoshuaMurrayWX]

Gfs looks lighter on precipitation so far

 

[Storm5]

I’ll take the rgem

 

[JoshuaMurrayWX]

Nevermind. Gfs popping good now.

 

[DopplerWx]

 

[DopplerWx]

Dang

 

[Storm5]

Gfs gonna have some fat totals for Huntsville

 

[BullCityWx]

Dang
View attachment 141886

Sorta kinda what the RGEM was doing

 

[DopplerWx]

Poof at 78

 

[Storm5]

Gfs widespread 3-5 cullman north looks like I’m headed to Huntsville to the in-laws

 

[Ollie Williams]

The GFS has a nice little band over the triad.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Hello there

 

[Storm5]

CMC gonna be a banger for the same western areas Arkansas northern miss extreme northern Alabama into Tennessee

 

[Ross]

regarding "i would expect more precip from that!", i've thought that a lot too about trailing waves before. my thinking is that the lead "impulse" wave creates subsidence in its wake and CAA pulls in stabler air at the surface, so the trailing wave is fighting both of those things. it makes cyclogenesis harder since the boundary is further offshore and the lift generated from the trailing wave is fight an preceding airmass promoting sinking air

so the MS valley shortwave is fighting subsidence behind the NE wave

 

[DopplerWx]

I mean it’s there just offshore

 

[JLL1973]

Gfs looks good for north ms and north al

 

[jrips27]

GFS totals

 

[Flotown]

seems to be coming in a little quicker

 

[BullCityWx]

?

 

[accu35]

While northern Bama gets a good snow on the gfs, it also shift the ice even further south. Now my county is completely covered.