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Wintry January 14-16th storm potential.

Myfrotho704_ said:
We need help out west, the northern stream out ahead the system on the euro has trended so favorably to a point where it has the cold entrenched for much of the region, including east of the apps, but the main issue I see now is the pacific wave entering the PNW, that’s what ruined a what could have been good run. Slow that S/W down or weaken it, and you get a better tilted system. But the overall appearance of our storm has changed a lot on the euro. It’s leaning back a lot more now. So close to something big View attachment 141454View attachment 141455
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Thank you for the better maps...lol. great thoughts as well. I will actually say I think that energy entering the PAC NW needs to slow a little and move due south and then round the base of the overall trof. I think thats the piece of energy yall need in your favor for AL/GA/SC/NC snowstorm. I think models are trying to hint at that.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
We need help out west, the northern stream out ahead the system on the euro has trended so favorably to a point where it has the cold entrenched for much of the region, including east of the apps, but the main issue I see now is the pacific wave entering the PNW, that’s what ruined a what could have been good run. Slow that S/W down or weaken it, and you get a better tilted system. But the overall appearance of our storm has changed a lot on the euro. It’s leaning back a lot more now. So close to something big View attachment 141454View attachment 141455
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Yep. That one is a key player. It's worth noting that regarding that s/w, the GFS is on an island.
gfs_z500a_namer_21.png

ec-fast_z500a_namer_6.png

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icon_z500_vort_namer_41.png

GFS is the outlier of the day.
 
olhausen said:
Euro basically shows a dusting here vs the gfs showing like 6-7 inches. Wish it was the other way around. Regardless temps here drop below freezing on Saturday and never get back above through the whole forecast period.
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7 consecutive days below freezing. That’s a banger
 
Parker said:
12z eps is improved for us further south. I’d expect to see some decent members. 00z on the top vs 12z on the bottom. Charts will come out around 2 PM.
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One thing I do see it trends continue, is a light snow zone in North AL and a light-moderate snow zone in SE AL into GA and on east. Watch for the shaft zone……

Definite Jan 2018 vibe here.
 
Hpdb301 said:
If we can lock in the Low in the gulf and have it pass right along the GA, FL line. North Alabama will score big time. There's been several hints that this was possible. We'll have to watch for more Consistency over the coming days. Then once we have a better feel that a Low may form then we'll switch focus to what area it forms. Which will then determine how far north or south its effects are felt. In other words, there is a lot to work out yet! Anyone in the bullseye currently is pretty much assured not to be there in the coming days! Be patient my friends! Best signal we've had in several years, but in the southeast we wait until 24-48 before we can be remotely certain on a snow forecast. And even that is pushing it! Happy Model watching to all!
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Yep, the way I have a chance is if lows track just under the panhandle. If the low gets into Ga it's usually to close to the furnace for anything frozen...lots of 33 rain. Too suppressed and it's 25 and virga. Generally, I'd like to see the rain, and hope the cold over performs, since it always gets cold in winter, but I've seen tons of dry ones, and wasted cold air. Blocking helps loads with timing, and always changes the calculus.
 
SnowNiner said:
Not sure if that's better? It's gotten colder but drier. Running that difficult balance of cold, and shredding the wave.
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Yeah depends on what your preference of better is lol. I'm in the camp with @Rain Cold in that I would rather the cold air be in place and maybe get better modeling on the precip.
 
1300m said:
Crazy thing is the 12z Euro control was completely dry in eastern sections as the trailing wave was weaker than at 6z. Such a fine line between a massive storm and not much.
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All that took that look away was losing the Strength of the western ridge on it. Need help out west
 
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