Stormlover
Member
Going to be a sweet spot just north of the rain/sleet/fr rain/rain line and it's looking more and more like far northwest and north central ala might be in it
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Wintry January 14-16th storm potential.
- Thread starter TheBatman
- Start date
CMC ensemble mean and members
Triplephase93
Member
Lots of Chattanooga members here hoping to break our snow drought.
Flotown
Member
was aboit to say...it still north of other guidance but south of its previous run
Don't have a strong opinion on it, but here on the CMC Ens, you can see here on the trend loop for Monday morning how the weak wave over OK is separating itself from the trailing wave over Montana. Also, the height lines change their orientation thru the SE and Mid-Atlantic (pointed farther south). So, these changes are moving the initial snow band south some and helping to crank some precip back inland with the trail wave diving down a little later and sharper
...
Yep. 22 months since we officially had a 1"+ snowfall, and 9 years since we had a 6"+ snowfall. Have to go back 13 years to find a snowpack that lingers for a whole week. Just sad lol. This setup has plenty of potential to overperform, BUT, plenty of potential to go poof. Always a game of chance.
Yep. 22 months since we officially had a 1"+ snowfall, and 9 years since we had a 6"+ snowfall. Have to go back 13 years to find a snowpack that lingers for a whole week. Just sad lol. This setup has plenty of potential to overperform, BUT, plenty of potential to go poof. Always a game of chance.
Drizzle Snizzle
Member
9 years since you’ve had a 6” snowfall is nothing. It’s been 41 years for Atlanta.
We've had a few good snows here in the last 10 years but no staying power. 2 overnight thumpers, 1 in 2014, and 1 in 2015. They both melted off the next day. On February 8th in 2020, we picked up 3" under a ULL around 7am, and it was completely melted off by noon. Here are 2 pictures from the 2020 snow that stuck around for about 4 hours.
I would love to get 3+ inches on the ground with this next system and have the cold following. The last time we had staying power snow was in January 2011. I believe it hit on January 10th-11th.
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Storm5
Member
Euro looks very gfs and cmc like through 60 for areas to the west
Going to be a good run on the Euro for Huntsville to Chattanooga to Knoxville
Storm5
Member
Euro going pound town on northern Mississippi through 66
Stormlover
Member
Big run for that corridor. Shifted a bit south from 18z
That band of snow trending south though ?
snowplow
Member
Hopefully Euro ends up like the RGEM
Maybe that much ice is like the high wind forecast (70 mph) that never happens.
SimeonNC
Member
Imagine if NC ends up getting the shift south with the initial band along with the late blooming coastal low, if that's possible.
Nam is icy for North Mississippi and Alabama.
SimeonNC
Member
Can anyone explain how a LP can be right off the coast and yet there is no precip at all?
LOL Huntsville you leave the 3 counties in white out and they should also be in the winter storm watch. Euro shifted south also with accumulation. Nam showing ice. Euro accumulation picture .
THEY JUST GAVE THE 3 COUNTIES A BIG MIDDLE FINGER
Yea can’t figure that out. Heck the Goofy (GFS) was definitely enough to put them in the watch too. Oh well, I sure they will include them on the midday guidance
ENCSnowdawg
Member
Such a tight gradient
Oh yea. It is definitely tight and I don’t see nothing set in stone until about 12 hours before the event.
Icon has shift south 25-50 miles.
Icon is better with the precip for Alabama and Mississippi. But warmer the Euro/Gfs
6z Canadian also shifted south by 25-50 miles. 
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Congrats Raleigh on the 06Z GFS! A nice 3 to 4 inch snowfall!
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
322 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 322 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024
Gradient winds will continue to weaken early this morning as the
upper level trough responsible for the strong winds yesterday
shifts further to our east. Behind this system is a much colder
airmass, and sfc high pressure will expand across the local area
today. Morning wind chills have dropped into the teens, a bit of a
preview of things to come later in the forecast. Expect clouds to
thin from south to north today, with abundant sunshine for the
afternoon. Despite the sunshine, colder northwesterly flow will
keep afternoon highs limited to the low to mid 40s across the
area. Will want to grab a jacket if headed outdoors today, as wind
chills will struggle to climb above 40 degrees throughout the
day.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 322 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024
Certainly a busy and increasingly concerning short term forecast,
as confidence continues to increase that we will see impactful
winter weather in the Tennessee Valley Monday into Tuesday. Model
trends over the past 24 hours are not only more consistent, but
have trended a bit higher with snowfall amounts for a large
portion of the forecast area. Before we get too locked into
specifics, there are some important considerations to be made when
forecasting winter weather in the south at this time range. First,
the system responsible for this is still making its way toward the
Pacific NW shore, where it will be better sampled by land-based
instruments that are important when it comes to forecast modeling.
It is not uncommon to see several minor to even major forecast
changes once these systems come onshore, so we will be paying
close attention to how these models trend over the next 24 hours.
Second, one or two degrees can make a big difference when it comes
to winter precip types and amounts, but at the current time we
feel fairly confident that by Monday morning temperatures will be
below freezing from the sfc up for at least northwest AL and
southern middle TN. With southwest flow aloft leading to favorable
moisture in the snow-growth zone, could see an efficient snow
producer out of this system for portions of the Southeast. With
temperatures several degrees below 0C through the vertical
atmosphere, do expect higher snow ratios and thus have increased
snow totals during the overnight forecast. With 2-4" amounts
across far north/northwest AL and southern middle TN, we feel
confident enough to go ahead and issue a Winter Storm Watch from
Franklin (AL) northeast to Jackson counties and north. This watch
may be expanded in future updates if guidance trends more
favorable for impactful snow across southeast portions of the
forecast area.
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
322 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 322 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024
Gradient winds will continue to weaken early this morning as the
upper level trough responsible for the strong winds yesterday
shifts further to our east. Behind this system is a much colder
airmass, and sfc high pressure will expand across the local area
today. Morning wind chills have dropped into the teens, a bit of a
preview of things to come later in the forecast. Expect clouds to
thin from south to north today, with abundant sunshine for the
afternoon. Despite the sunshine, colder northwesterly flow will
keep afternoon highs limited to the low to mid 40s across the
area. Will want to grab a jacket if headed outdoors today, as wind
chills will struggle to climb above 40 degrees throughout the
day.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 322 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024
Certainly a busy and increasingly concerning short term forecast,
as confidence continues to increase that we will see impactful
winter weather in the Tennessee Valley Monday into Tuesday. Model
trends over the past 24 hours are not only more consistent, but
have trended a bit higher with snowfall amounts for a large
portion of the forecast area. Before we get too locked into
specifics, there are some important considerations to be made when
forecasting winter weather in the south at this time range. First,
the system responsible for this is still making its way toward the
Pacific NW shore, where it will be better sampled by land-based
instruments that are important when it comes to forecast modeling.
It is not uncommon to see several minor to even major forecast
changes once these systems come onshore, so we will be paying
close attention to how these models trend over the next 24 hours.
Second, one or two degrees can make a big difference when it comes
to winter precip types and amounts, but at the current time we
feel fairly confident that by Monday morning temperatures will be
below freezing from the sfc up for at least northwest AL and
southern middle TN. With southwest flow aloft leading to favorable
moisture in the snow-growth zone, could see an efficient snow
producer out of this system for portions of the Southeast. With
temperatures several degrees below 0C through the vertical
atmosphere, do expect higher snow ratios and thus have increased
snow totals during the overnight forecast. With 2-4" amounts
across far north/northwest AL and southern middle TN, we feel
confident enough to go ahead and issue a Winter Storm Watch from
Franklin (AL) northeast to Jackson counties and north. This watch
may be expanded in future updates if guidance trends more
favorable for impactful snow across southeast portions of the
forecast area.
GFS with basically Winter Storm in portions of the Triad of NC & decent event for a chunk of NC. You can see the obvious South trend. I really wish that Arctic can over the Apps faster.
FROM NWS BIRMINGHAM
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 414 AM CST SAT JAN 13 2024
A broad trough will remain across much of the CONUS through Tuesday,
with a deep upper low over Hudson Bay, associated with the
extratropical cyclone currently over the Great Lakes which will be
occluded by that time. A series of weak shortwaves will be rotating
through the base of this trough. At the surface, a strong cold front
will have moved through during the short term period, with an Arctic
air mass covering much of the central CONUS. The first weak wave
moves through Sunday night. A band of light snow is expected to set
up along an 850-700mb frontogenesis zone over the Mid-South region
Sunday night northwest of the forecast area, though there is a
chance some of this light snow makes it into our far northwest
counties prior to sunrise Monday morning. At this time
accumulations are not expected during the overnight hours Sunday
night in our far northwest counties, but will need to monitor as
temperatures will be below freezing during this time. A stronger
shortwave moves through during the day on Monday, and this band of
precipitation should sink southeastward into our far northwest
counties, especially Marion and Winston counties. Temperatures
will also remain at or below freezing in that region. Global
models all indicate temperature profiles in this region being
supportive of snow, with the potential for 1 to 2 inches of snow
in the far northwest counties, but the NAM indicates a warm nose.
Overall the NAM appears to be too amplified with the system and
850mb winds with the 925-850mb front further to the northwest,
though it is certainly possible there could be a warm nose not
depicted in the global guidance. Still, with precipitation falling
with temperatures at or below freezing, there would be impacts
from sleet or freezing rain if the precipitation there ends up not
being snow. Have therefore issued a Winter Storm Watch for Marion
and Winston Counties starting Monday morning, though this could
move earlier into Sunday night if precipitation starts earlier.
The shortwave moves past the area Monday evening, with mid-levels
drying out including in the dendritic growth zone. This will result
in overall less favorable conditions for accumulating snow Monday
night. Isentropic lift will persist at low-levels, however, with
southwest low to mid-level flow continuing downstream of a trough
digging into the Plains. Soundings remain saturated up to around
700mb, but generally below the -10C level. At the same time cold
advection at low-levels will cause sub-freezing temperatures to
advance southeastwards. With a warm nose present in soundings, this
indicates more of a wintry mix with rain changing over to freezing
rain, possibly mixed with sleet or light snow. Therefore
accumulations south of the far northern counties will mainly be in
the form of icing rather than sleet or snow. While PoPs (probability
of measurable precipitation) are currently only in the 20 to 30
percent range, at minimum freezing drizzle appears possible with
these soundings, which while not "measurable" can still cause
travel impacts. A winter weather advisory will likely be needed in
future updates for icy road conditions by Tuesday morning for at
least the northwest half of the forecast area. As we go into early
Tuesday morning, uncertainty increases regarding whether there is
an uptick of precipitation over our southeast counties, with
temperatures along the I-85 corridor near freezing. Will hold of
on mentioning wintry impacts in these areas but will need to
continue to monitor this.
A very cold air mass will move into the area behind this system.
High temperatures will be at or below freezing along and north of I-
20 on Tuesday, which could prolong travel impacts. A hard freeze
warning will probably be needed for some of our northwest counties
Tuesday morning, and areawide by Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.
Winds will become light across the far northwest/northern counties
Tuesday night, where forecast lows are in the mid to upper single
digits. They could trend a bit lower if there is snow on the ground.
Wind chills will also be at or below zero across northern and
western portions of the area Wednesday morning, so a wind chill
advisory may become necessary. Some far northern areas may not go
above freezing Wednesday either. Another hard freeze warning may
be needed for portions of the area Wednesday night. The next
system moves in Thursday night into Friday. There are some model
disagreements in temperatures with this system and precipitation
types. Will hold off on mentioning any wintry impacts in the HWO
at this time.
32/Davis
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 414 AM CST SAT JAN 13 2024
A broad trough will remain across much of the CONUS through Tuesday,
with a deep upper low over Hudson Bay, associated with the
extratropical cyclone currently over the Great Lakes which will be
occluded by that time. A series of weak shortwaves will be rotating
through the base of this trough. At the surface, a strong cold front
will have moved through during the short term period, with an Arctic
air mass covering much of the central CONUS. The first weak wave
moves through Sunday night. A band of light snow is expected to set
up along an 850-700mb frontogenesis zone over the Mid-South region
Sunday night northwest of the forecast area, though there is a
chance some of this light snow makes it into our far northwest
counties prior to sunrise Monday morning. At this time
accumulations are not expected during the overnight hours Sunday
night in our far northwest counties, but will need to monitor as
temperatures will be below freezing during this time. A stronger
shortwave moves through during the day on Monday, and this band of
precipitation should sink southeastward into our far northwest
counties, especially Marion and Winston counties. Temperatures
will also remain at or below freezing in that region. Global
models all indicate temperature profiles in this region being
supportive of snow, with the potential for 1 to 2 inches of snow
in the far northwest counties, but the NAM indicates a warm nose.
Overall the NAM appears to be too amplified with the system and
850mb winds with the 925-850mb front further to the northwest,
though it is certainly possible there could be a warm nose not
depicted in the global guidance. Still, with precipitation falling
with temperatures at or below freezing, there would be impacts
from sleet or freezing rain if the precipitation there ends up not
being snow. Have therefore issued a Winter Storm Watch for Marion
and Winston Counties starting Monday morning, though this could
move earlier into Sunday night if precipitation starts earlier.
The shortwave moves past the area Monday evening, with mid-levels
drying out including in the dendritic growth zone. This will result
in overall less favorable conditions for accumulating snow Monday
night. Isentropic lift will persist at low-levels, however, with
southwest low to mid-level flow continuing downstream of a trough
digging into the Plains. Soundings remain saturated up to around
700mb, but generally below the -10C level. At the same time cold
advection at low-levels will cause sub-freezing temperatures to
advance southeastwards. With a warm nose present in soundings, this
indicates more of a wintry mix with rain changing over to freezing
rain, possibly mixed with sleet or light snow. Therefore
accumulations south of the far northern counties will mainly be in
the form of icing rather than sleet or snow. While PoPs (probability
of measurable precipitation) are currently only in the 20 to 30
percent range, at minimum freezing drizzle appears possible with
these soundings, which while not "measurable" can still cause
travel impacts. A winter weather advisory will likely be needed in
future updates for icy road conditions by Tuesday morning for at
least the northwest half of the forecast area. As we go into early
Tuesday morning, uncertainty increases regarding whether there is
an uptick of precipitation over our southeast counties, with
temperatures along the I-85 corridor near freezing. Will hold of
on mentioning wintry impacts in these areas but will need to
continue to monitor this.
A very cold air mass will move into the area behind this system.
High temperatures will be at or below freezing along and north of I-
20 on Tuesday, which could prolong travel impacts. A hard freeze
warning will probably be needed for some of our northwest counties
Tuesday morning, and areawide by Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.
Winds will become light across the far northwest/northern counties
Tuesday night, where forecast lows are in the mid to upper single
digits. They could trend a bit lower if there is snow on the ground.
Wind chills will also be at or below zero across northern and
western portions of the area Wednesday morning, so a wind chill
advisory may become necessary. Some far northern areas may not go
above freezing Wednesday either. Another hard freeze warning may
be needed for portions of the area Wednesday night. The next
system moves in Thursday night into Friday. There are some model
disagreements in temperatures with this system and precipitation
types. Will hold off on mentioning any wintry impacts in the HWO
at this time.
32/Davis
I don’t think it’s really a south trend. It’s the tilt on the trough beginning to turn earlier and pulling the moisture back inland from the coastal low that’s getting going. By the time it’s showing that snow going over the Piedmont, the cold air is that and you can see that from the soundings as 850s are very supportive of snow. Certainly a good trend with the tilt of the trough and if it can back up just a tad sooner, this could be a bigger deal with more of NC and SC in play
David in SW Blount
Member
Well, I guess this still over 48 hours out from when precip would begin in the shafted counties, so they have plenty of time to add them later today or tonight if warranted.
Honestly surprised those aren’t a bit higher back over CLT metro and the southern Piedmont. The radar depiction showed a solid 6+ hours of snowfall in those spots. Probably not great rates but falling overnight with temperatures mainly in the upper 20s it should have no trouble sticking. This could be a case where the surface output is still trying to catch up to the H5 changes
For NC: Not to sound repetitive or being a weenie (well a little) but this really is close to a significant coastal. Really hoping these trends of trough tilting and drawing moisture inland continue at 12z today. Don't need a monster run, just positive trends.
Just the slightest change in orientation of that trough from 0z to 06z GFS, made the difference in a few flurries to a couple of inches in C/ENC.
Very fickle setup. Type of setup that’s gonna be tough to nail down even at hour 48
Yep and honestly I like where we (especially ENC) sit right now better than a coastal already along the coast. I mean too much digging, amplification and it can get pulled west quick too. Don't think there's time for that though