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Wintry January 14-16th storm potential.

From GSP Long-Range Discussion
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 PM Thursday...No sigfnt changes were made to the previous
forecast. The models are still in good agreement with light snowfall
developing in moistening upslope flow across the wrn NC mtns Sun
night, however, QPF amts are meager with little upper support and
moisture feed. The better snow maker will be Mon night into Tue as
h5 heights become more difl ahead of a pos-tilted trof swinging thru
the lower Midwest. Available moisture has gone up a little, but
still looks to remain rather low-end. The interesting feature with
this system will be the potential for snow outside the mtns. With
upper forcing pushing east overnight, soundings show a period of
light snowfall potential across the non/mtns, mainly the I-40
corridor, as dendritic saturation occurs for a few hours before
sunrise as the entire column remains below freezing. This feature
is showing up across the Upstate as well, yet overall moisture looks
more limited across the srn part of the FA. Will be a system to keep
an eye on, but as it is currently day 5, will not attempt any snow
amt projections right now. The upper trof will usher in a cA
airmass mix and expect temps to be held a few cats below normal thru
the end of the week.
 
ILMRoss said:
distinctly remember that storm for having some of the most ludicrous clown maps of my life. four days out and the CMC was spitting out 4 inches of frozen qpf for places like savannah. weather channel shipped cantore out to charleston for ice (that was a bust). in raleigh we were thinking 3-6 inches of pixie dust (we got 2.6 or something like that).

agreed with similarities but i need to see a 24 inch bullseye over fayetteville before I really get excited (and no joke that was was half the ops runs were spitting out for that storm)
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I plotted the Euro runs for that storm a while back. Insane runs
 
FFC:
The primary weather concerns during this period will be the
potential for snow in northern Georgia Monday into Tuesday and
and influx of Arctic air by the middle of the week. Both events
are linked, in that the timing of the Arctic airs arrivals will
dictate the southward extent of any potential snowfall. For now
the majority of the ensemble (EPS & GEFS) members hold the cold
air back long enough to keep the Atlanta Metro and points south
and eastward as all rain. For portions of northern Georgia, the
snow potential is greater with 90% of the GEFS and EPS members
suggesting at least a trace of snow in Blairsville. If snow
occurs, the potential push of Arctic air Tuesday and Wednesday
could create issues for snow removal/melting. While forecaster
confidence in the snow is towards the lower end of the scale,
confidence in the bout of colder weather is high (see the CPC 6-10
Day Temperature Outlook). Temperatures could dip into the teens
for much of the region Wednesday morning. Meanwhile single digit
wind chill values could materialize Tuesday and Wednesday morning.
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We should start getting to view that sw up in the NW on the 0z short range models tonight. Just more voices in the choir. Fro is right in that its that sw placement, thats gonna really determine what kind of end story this has . We need that pac ridging neutrally tilted, shaped, and sharp. Not leaning forward in a sw to ne configuration. I cant think of another mechanism that will play a bigger role in determining how amped our energy gets as she comes down an around.
 
Rain Cold said:
I mentioned this previously, but you can thank the block for that. I would like for everyone reading this board to just step back, take a deep breath, and behold a true, west-based NAO block. We've gone years and years without seeing this. I think we should pause for a moment to enjoy.

So many winters, we just hope and pray for a little ridging up there somewhere. A block like this is not going to be quick to break down and move out. It's good to remember that, because as long as it's there and of that magnitude, things in the modeling are going to have more of a tendency to press south than they usually do, as we move in closer...up to a point, at least.

View attachment 141481
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yep, she's a beaut Clark!

edit: to me that's more than just a -nao. About a full on over-the-top block
 
Didn't see anyone post the 12z Euro Control. Reminder this showed a bigger hit at 6z. Looks pretty reasonable now. These are 10:1 ratios so northern edges would be higher with better ratios

1705471200-AK6sU2p4XRc.png
 
NCSNOW said:
We should start getting to view that sw up in the NW on the 0z short range models tonight. Just more voices in the choir. Fro is right in that its that sw placement, thats gonna really determine what kind of end story this has . We need that pac ridging neutrally tilted, shaped, and sharp. Not leaning forward in a sw to ne configuration. I cant think of another mechanism that will play a bigger role in determining how amped our energy gets as she comes down an around.
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Ha, I've been saying the opposite. I want the ridge to rollover in SW Canada to give us a little more positive tilt on the trough, then have it yank to neutral just in time. If not, we get the inland solution of the UKMet. Also, the Euro has more press southeast with the heights thru Ohio and PA, so both are factors. Mid-South areas will want the UKMet solution

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WqYRFcB.png
 
We are lit still out here

Sunday
Partly sunny with a chance of snow showers in the morning, then cloudy with snow showers likely in the afternoon. Patchy blowing snow in the afternoon. Heavy snow accumulation possible. Colder with highs around 10 above. Chance of snow 70 percent. Wind chill values as low as 10 below.
Sunday Night
Mostly cloudy. Patchy blowing snow in the evening. Snow showers likely, mainly in the evening. Additional moderate snow accumulation possible. Cold with lows around zero. Chance of snow 60 percent. Wind chill values as low as 20 below.
 
griteater said:
Ha, I've been saying the opposite. I want the ridge to rollover in SW Canada to give us a little more positive tilt on the trough, then have it yank to neutral just in time. If not, we get the inland solution of the UKMet. Also, the Euro has more press southeast with the heights thru Ohio and PA, so both are factors. Mid-South areas will want the UKMet solution

VmhZHAD.gif


WqYRFcB.png
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UKMET has certainly been going the right way though. From having a big time southeast ridge and severe weather in the Carolinas/other parts of the SE to that
 
ILMRoss said:
will continue to beat this drum, bc this is the risk the euro shows:

bringing down heights ahead of the storm and weakening the SER sounds great until you need something to sharpen the trough with. no coincidence that we lost basically all of our lift. and i feel like this is a board-wide risk.

in years past this is a great look, but last few years it feels like we've lost storms to strong cold press/positive tilts more frequently than i'm comfortable with to call this a great look.

interested in the ensembles but wouldn't be surprised to see the qpf trail trickle south with returns more muted
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This tracks too with the model's ever decreasing available moisture, particularly in N AL.
 
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