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Wintry January 14-16th storm potential.

Doable

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_19.png
 
Man that is a textbook look for DC with the low right near* Hatteras like that. Bet the MA forum is having an exciting happy hour.
 
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Cold air transport continues to be an issue on the GFS and remains my #1 concern.
Either we need a better feed of cold from the north (as you said) or we need this system to push just a little more south (using the initial cold air).

The 18z RDPS looked better at hour 84, suppressing the system more and speeding up the arrival of precip.

1705012556914.png
 
Really nice trend for a “bigger” event on the GEFS, past 5 runs.

View attachment 141512
was going to comment something like this. gfs ens run is pretty interesting- definitely some changes

bigger SER, sharper trough, and in response.. check out how qpf lurches inland
gfs-ens_apcpn24_us_fh114_trend.gif
i will say this. if this trend continues after me moaning about it all day. this i will take the L and yall will have full right to be mad at me haha
 
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