Wintry January 14-16th storm potential.

[TheBatman]

 

[accu35]

While north of me getting snow I’m getting ice and it’s increasing.

 

[ynot]

Lets see if the 12z euro holds or goes N

 

[Webberweather53]

I’d actually be surprised if there **wasn’t** some sizable northward adjustments here, even as we approach the 0 hour.

Strong WSW-SW flow aloft over top an approaching Arctic air mass with a decent vort max rotating around the base of a SE Canada vortex supports at least a low to even moderate impact overrunning event. Biggest question is how much Arctic air gets out in front of this

 

[Chandler]

 

[jrips27]

I’d actually be surprised if there **wasn’t** some sizable northward adjustments here, even as we approach the 0 hour.

Strong WSW-SW flow aloft over top an approaching Arctic air mass with a decent vort max rotating around the base of a SE Canada vortex supports at least a low to even moderate impact overrunning event. Biggest question is how much Arctic air gets out in front of this

Thanks Webb. Do you have any thoughts on the placement of the initial finger of precip on Monday over MS-AL-GA-TN? Seems to be ticking south a bit on due to PV press.

 

[Mahomeless]

Another one to watch end of week

wrong thread

 

[Branch]

Is there any good news for the Atlanta metro or are we completely out of this thing. I don’t see too many mentions of anything.

 

[CNCsnwfan1210]

12z GEFS still showing a few hits Wednesday morning

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[ynot]

Is there any good news for the Atlanta metro or are we completely out of this thing. I don’t see too many mentions of anything.

Atl looks to be caught betwren the 2 pieces of energy.. one n and one s

 

[accu35]

@Storm5 Mentioned a round 2. Not to many people talking about it, but it has the potential to catch a lot folks off guard. Especially here in southern Bama.

 

[Twister]

850’s are an issue because the trough is too progressive not allowing for any lift to generate precip and slowing it down to allow more colder air to get in place. If the trough goes neutral tilt it will slow allowing the cold air to filter in and precip to drive dynamic cooling. The temps aren’t the issue here because they will be colder just from the slowing of the trough and precip being driven. Everything is dependent on a neutral tilted trough further west

Basically what I said to begin with

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[Ross]

I’d actually be surprised if there **wasn’t** some sizable northward adjustments here, even as we approach the 0 hour.

Strong WSW-SW flow aloft over top an approaching Arctic air mass with a decent vort max rotating around the base of a SE Canada vortex supports at least a low to even moderate impact overrunning event. Biggest question is how much Arctic air gets out in front of this

View attachment 142022

View attachment 142017

Not a storm until Webb is preaching about the underestimation of the northern extent of the precip shield

(I agree)

 

[CaryWx]

So the 0z euro doesn't show the coastal hit right? It prefers the hard cold squash press? Does dr. no hold serve at 12z.

 

[iGRXY]

I believe we hit the southern limit.. they will adjust north slightly

Okay, please tell us based on what.

 

[iGRXY]

Basically what I said to begin with

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No not at all lol.

 

[NCSNOW]

?

View attachment 141992

Said it yesterday finger band is our best hope. Then coastal mini bloomer last second is choice number 2. Met, SD ,G vegas need the coastal attempt.

 

[RBR71]

GEFS seemed to have a few more members showing the coastal precip inland. Euro ????

 

[Iceagewhereartthou]

Painfully this will not be my storm but this in the outlook for Northern MS and this is dang impressive. Current point an click calls for 3-7 inches of snow with these temps. This is going to be a fun storm for you folks.

 

[Twister]

Painfully this will not be my storm but this in the outlook for Northern MS and this is dang impressive. Current point an click calls for 3-7 inches of snow with these temps. This is going to be a fun storm for you folks.

View attachment 142025

I think upstate North of I85 has a pretty decent shot at seeing some winter weather early next week "If" we can get cold enough. It probably won't amount to Much but there could be some flying around

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[AlabamaWxWatcher]

Highly unlikely that every single model, including all of their Ensemble members are missing the snow that bad. If anything, maybe hwy 278 gets caught off guard in the eastern parts of AL

Probably correct - looking more and more like I-20 may get a few hundredths of an inch of ice at best, and nothing more.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

All the globals are struggling with the Strength of the TPV over Montana. Will be interesting to see how this effects the first initial batch

 

[rburrel2]

One more tick south and the upstate is in play.

 

[accu35]

Probably correct - looking more and more like I-20 may get a few hundredths of an inch of ice at best, and nothing more.

Looks to be a better chance of ice further towards the coast. Here in southwest Bama I’m sitting at a good spot for ice. Round 2 needs to be watch closely. Could be a bigger deal then what models are showing

 

[Myfrotho704_]

“King” euro run trend across western sections. Runs ago it was nowhere near as moist

 

[jrips27]

Euro is a bit south again. Still waiting on more frames

 

[jrips27]

 

[Myfrotho704_]

All the globals are struggling with the Strength of the TPV over Montana. Will be interesting to see how this effects the first initial batch View attachment 142027

And another tick south

 

[olhausen]

So Globals holding serve (maybe shifted 20 miles south or so over the past few runs), but the short range HiRes models really moving this north....I know which basket im putting my eggs in.

I’m putting my eggs in the short range since that’s what‘s giving me the most snow ?

 

[jrips27]

Euro 5 run trend ?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

euro says I can drive a county north and find 2 inches of snow ?

 

[olhausen]

Globals leaving us high and dry at the Kentucky Tennessee boarder.

Short range models crush the north though. Who will win? I’d take a meet up in the middle and cash out.

 

[Carolina Jones]

How's the coastal low on the Euro?

 

[rburrel2]

euro says I can drive a county north and find 2 inches of snow ? View attachment 142033

Couple more shifts and you won't have to drive anywhere.

 

[LukeBarrette]

That early on band for yall and then this band in NRV. Now we cookin!???

 

[NWMSGuy]

Globals leaving us high and dry at the Kentucky Tennessee boarder.
View attachment 142034View attachment 142036View attachment 142037
Short range models crush the north though. Who will win? I’d take a meet up in the middle and cash out.
View attachment 142038View attachment 142039

I believe I am sitting in a decent spot for now.

 

[Forevertothee]

euro says I can drive a county north and find 2 inches of snow ? View attachment 142033

The southern jog trend is evident now on the GFS and Euro. Still plenty of time to have it continue and put more of Upstate SC and CTL metro into play?

 

[LukeBarrette]

Not seeing much in the way of trends for the little coastal system from the Euro but if my memory serves me correctly it didn’t do well picking up the Jan 22 2022 system

 

[RBR71]

Not seeing much in the way of trends for the little coastal system from the Euro but if my memory serves me correctly it didn’t do well picking up the Jan 22 2022 system

Yep not digging as much, tilts too late and pretty much a whiff

 

[JLL1973]

I believe I am sitting in a decent spot for now.

Yes you and I both are. Euro is probably a tad to south and cams are a little too far north. Split the difference and we’re good