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January 11th-12th Southern Slider

I'll always be happy to see flakes, but this just isn't exciting. From NWS Huntsville:

SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 333 AM CST Sun Jan 10 2021

Attention then diverts further to the SW starting tonight, as a deep
upper low/trough axis drops into the srn Plains, while an area of low
pressure develops across the extreme NW Gulf. In addition, while the
latest model suites continue to indicate the presence of a sig dry
layer between H85-H7, an aggressive return flow pattern below H7 may
allow for this drier layer to be overcome by an influx of moisture
late tonight into early Mon morning. With lows tonight again falling
into the upper 20s/near 30F, this slightly faster solution in which
the lastest model runs are now converging on suggest some light snow
developing out of the SW late tonight, as the sfc low begins to track
ENE across the wrn/cntrl Gulf Coast.

The upper low/trough axis out of the srn Plains will also begin to
lift NE late tonight into early Mon, although slightly better phasing
of the upper trough pattern/sfc wave initially may also result in the
development of some weak snow bands. This banding may begin across
portions of the Mid South region before spreading into parts of NW
AL Mon morning, which could result in some light snow accumulations
up to a 1/2 inch. Elsewhere, as the upper trough continues to lift NE
away from the sfc low and weakens, light snow/wintry mix will spread
further into the mid TN Valley, with accumulations perhaps reaching
a quarter inch. As temps struggle to climb into the mid/upper 30s,
much of the precip may become more light rain Mon afternoon, although
a wintry mix will be possible in some of the higher elevations.

In any case, this remains a favorable pattern for light snow/wintry
mix late Sun night into Mon, as the sfc wave tracks ewd across the
Gulf Coast and the moisture depth quickly increases by early Mon.
Lingering precip will then quickly taper off across NE AL early Mon
evening, as the sfc low tracks further into the NE Gulf and the upper
trough axis continues to lift ENE and weaken. Lows Mon night look to
fall into the mid/upper 20s for most areas, before temps rebound into
the mid/upper 40s later in the day Tue, as a sfc high out of the srn
Plains begins to build ewd. Given the depth of the cold air Mon night
coupled with some lingering sfc moisture, black ice may become an
issue on some roads and overpasses into early Tue.
 
Wow I'm not even out of the metro yet absolutely ripping snow Dallas may get a surprise yet


IMG-20210110-105018215.jpg
 
Most of the precip over MS & AL will be driven by warm advection.

Thus, I'm gonna have to press [x] doubt that this storm suddenly dries out once it reaches Alabama

The models as usual are completely whiffing on the northern side of the precip over Dallas-Ft Worth

NAM forecast valid for 1pm today shows basically no snow over & north of Dallas

1610301417591.png



In reality it's snowing up to the OK-TX border & the precip is much more expansive over NE Texas. Expecting these trends to generally hold downstream

1610301362793.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Most of the precip over MS & AL will be driven by warm advection.

Thus, I'm gonna have to press [x] doubt that this storm suddenly dries out once it reaches Alabama

The models as usual are completely whiffing on the northern side of the precip over Dallas-Ft Worth

NAM forecast valid for 1pm today shows basically no snow over & north of Dallas

View attachment 64768



In reality it's snowing up to the OK-TX border & the precip is much more expansive over NE Texas. Expecting these trends to generally hold downstream

View attachment 64767
Click to expand...
Personally I think it'll dry out just by looking at the H5 maps and the frontogenesis maps as well. Once it makes it to AL the moisture train gets shut off due to flattening and condensing of the wave. In its current state it's able to pull moisture far north but with a look like this you are not going to get a huge pull if any for moisture.
nam3km_z500_vort_seus_40.png
 
ForsythSnow said:
Personally I think it'll dry out just by looking at the H5 maps and the frontogenesis maps as well. Once it makes it to AL the moisture train gets shut off due to flattening and condensing of the wave. In its current state it's able to pull moisture far north but with a look like this you are not going to get a huge pull if any for moisture.
nam3km_z500_vort_seus_40.png
Click to expand...
Well its over performing in Texas right now. Hope it keeps doing that here in North Alabama..
 
I kind of get the feeling that this one may end similar to an event that happened in 2007. Forecast was light snow then quickly to rain, but the result was the snow falling kept the temps down and thus stayed all snow. Now surface temps were above freezing so it never accumulated more than a half inch in the grassy spots, but four to five hours of light snow far beat the same of rain.

I’d watch that line from Tuscaloosa to Gadsden and another line from Gadsden down into the Heflin area where the cooler air can get stuck in place.
 
The way the Hrrrrrrrrrrrr looks, looks like it could do well in Alabama "West side" I'm literally like 2 degrees from a WS. Could we bust?
 
I'm in the snow/sleet forecast for tonight and Tomorrow morning.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Personally I think it'll dry out just by looking at the H5 maps and the frontogenesis maps as well. Once it makes it to AL the moisture train gets shut off due to flattening and condensing of the wave. In its current state it's able to pull moisture far north but with a look like this you are not going to get a huge pull if any for moisture.
nam3km_z500_vort_seus_40.png
Click to expand...

That's actually a favorable 500 vort map for precip in N AL, the added CVA will superimpose onto WAA to enhance the potential for precipitation in Alabama. Mid-level southwesterly flow like that is also conducive to moisture advection. The models as usual are just not handling it properly as we're seeing atm in North Texas. It's rarely if ever a good idea to bet against overrunning & warm advection
 
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