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January 11th-12th Southern Slider

gawxnative said:
Well here I have topped at 45 forecast was Low-mid 50 s .. Issue is cloud cover has moved in faster, so limited heating and we will start nighttime some 6-8 decrees below what was forecast.
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You will clear soon . Was cloudy here this am clear skies now


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SD said:
You mean precip arriving earlier and more widespread than model progs. You don't say
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Happens basically every damn time w/ setups like these, not sure why many are getting sucked into the models and thinking it'll be completely dry when you have sneaky warm advection and overrunning.
 
Some light accumulations in parts of GA.

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DarkKnight said:
Would that be advisory or warning? I know at least advisory.. With that look you would think there would be pockets of 2-4 inches.
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Do you think Tuscaloosa may have a chance at seeing something I’m still here and don’t head back to Montana until Tuesday
 
Man I hope y'all get a piece of this the rates are insane the pictures don't do it justice I'll have videos when I get home tonight
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FFC:
This forecast begins this afternoon with high clouds moving over the
region ahead of next frontal system. Upper flow has shifted to the
SW and our focus in the short term is on the developing system now
along the TX Gulf coast and the southern plains. Current guidance is
in good agreement and showing the main low pressure center (Which is
currently about 150 miles SE of Galveston, TX) pushing east tonight
becoming centered just south of NOLA by 12z Mon. This lows position
is expected to be a bit further south than yesterdays model runs so
this should help with QPF guidance being a bit lower than yesterday.
The onset of the precip will begin to push into West GA just before
sunrise Monday, with our forecasted PoPs increasing across the state
through Monday afternoon/evening. As the precip pushes in early
Monday morning Temps will be hovering at or just below freezing for
areas mainly north of a Columbus to Macon to Augusta line so many
locations will see a Rain or Snow or Sleet mix with the initial
onset of precip. Good news is that the ground/surface temps should
remain above freezing for most areas so no accumulations or impacts
are expected aside from North GA especially in the higher elevations
of the NE GA mountains. Given the overall light QPF and a look at
some discrepancies in possible snow amounts, decided to continue
with the current thinking of a few tenths of an inch in the
mountains. accumulation totals still expected in the half inch or
less range so we will not be issuing an advisory at this time. As
this system progresses, If things begin to chance and the low center
tracks a bit further north, we will update the forecast and adjust
accordingly.

Temps warm into the 40s and 50s Monday with Tuesday morning lows
dipping back into the 30s and 40s. As this system exits the area
Monday night there will be some isolated areas across N GA that see
some light mixed precip again, but it is expected to be short lived
with with little to no accumulations expected.
 
Snowfan said:
FFC:
This forecast begins this afternoon with high clouds moving over the
region ahead of next frontal system. Upper flow has shifted to the
SW and our focus in the short term is on the developing system now
along the TX Gulf coast and the southern plains. Current guidance is
in good agreement and showing the main low pressure center (Which is
currently about 150 miles SE of Galveston, TX) pushing east tonight
becoming centered just south of NOLA by 12z Mon. This lows position
is expected to be a bit further south than yesterdays model runs so
this should help with QPF guidance being a bit lower than yesterday.
The onset of the precip will begin to push into West GA just before
sunrise Monday, with our forecasted PoPs increasing across the state
through Monday afternoon/evening. As the precip pushes in early
Monday morning Temps will be hovering at or just below freezing for
areas mainly north of a Columbus to Macon to Augusta line so many
locations will see a Rain or Snow or Sleet mix with the initial
onset of precip. Good news is that the ground/surface temps should
remain above freezing for most areas so no accumulations or impacts
are expected aside from North GA especially in the higher elevations
of the NE GA mountains. Given the overall light QPF and a look at
some discrepancies in possible snow amounts, decided to continue
with the current thinking of a few tenths of an inch in the
mountains. accumulation totals still expected in the half inch or
less range so we will not be issuing an advisory at this time. As
this system progresses, If things begin to chance and the low center
tracks a bit further north, we will update the forecast and adjust
accordingly.

Temps warm into the 40s and 50s Monday with Tuesday morning lows
dipping back into the 30s and 40s. As this system exits the area
Monday night there will be some isolated areas across N GA that see
some light mixed precip again, but it is expected to be short lived
with with little to no accumulations expected.
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I’m not saying it will snow but if it warms up that much tomorrow I’ll eat my shoe.
 
SD said:
Looks like Dallas got caught in a RDU fail zone nice band to the north and south View attachment 64817
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UnfortunateIy I was reading that there seems to be a pocket of dry air aloft over parts of the DFW area that is inhibiting snow growth(there's even reports of rain in the area because the lack of heavy precip cooling the column). That area is cursed or something.
 
I'm noticing that the radar is showing more moisture then the NAM at the moment. Could this explain why the FFC issued that Special Weather Statement
radmap.php
nam3km_ref_frzn_us_3.png
 
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