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Severe Jan 8-11 2024 System Severe

SD said:
This made me go through the hrrr since I don't have the 3k until its done. There are lots of random 70-95mph gusts on the more tame hrrr from mobile to CLT then over to VA Beach
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The potential is there with individual cells to produce some sporadic intense winds no doubt. Will it live up to it's potential, we’ll know soon enough, but better safe than sorry
 
The 4”+ of rainfall and 20-30 mph sustained/40+mph gusts here really has me worried. We’ve gotten significant rainfall the last few weeks that comes every 3-5 days and has dropped at least an inch minimum everytime here. That with the combination of hills/mountains and abundance of creeks, streams, and rivers for runoff and creating flood prone areas has me worried near myself. The severe weather is an after thought in my head right now in mby. The rainfall alone is crazy to see not being driven by a tropical system. I expect numerous power outages and down trees around here.
 
CaryWx said:
wife got on you about getting that work done huh?
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lol. These are my babies. I enjoy putting them up for my kids but I will say I don’t love doing it as much as I once did. It’s a lot of work and then when it comes time to put them up we’re usually in a soaker of a rain pattern and you can never get everything dried out long enough to put up.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Maybe the folks in charge of that should do something about making it more accurate if it's off that much.
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It's really not "off" that much but is showing the potential with the setup. If an area gets enough instability and a has enough updraft to tap the raging winds just a few hundred feet above the surface, then a brief gust at those speeds is highly possible. It's not a widespread sustained wind map
 
metwannabe said:
It's really not "off" that much but is showing the potential with the setup. If an area gets enough instability and a has enough updraft to tap the raging winds just a few hundred feet above the surface, then a brief gust at those speeds is highly possible. It's not a widespread sustained wind map
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It's also at 33 ft and a pws on a 4ft dowel rod isn't going to be close
 
SD said:
It's also at 33 ft and a pws on a 4ft dowel rod isn't going to be close
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It's pvc. And do you know why they use 10m? Why not 15 or 8 or some other number? I know it's not really possible to forecast ground speed because of terrain. But I don't remember why the official height is set to 10m.
 
Rain Cold said:
It's pvc. And do you know why they use 10m? Why not 15 or 8 or some other number? I know it's not really possible to forecast ground speed because of terrain. But I don't remember why the official height is set to 10m.
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Does yours flex in the wind? I think the 33ft is a WMO standard thing no idea why it was selected though
 
SD said:
Does yours flex in the wind? I think the 33ft is a WMO standard thing no idea why it was selected though
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Yeah it does a little. Mine is never going to be dead on balls accurate but it'll be in the ballpark....of ground truth, I mean.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Spent the last hour in the dark taking down my flagpole Christmas tree and outdoor inflatables because I’d like to use them next year. The tree would get sideways in 15’ish mph sustained winds so I figured I might lose her tomorrow. I need a drink
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Thanks for the reminder. Going out now to bring my 5 by 7 American flag off of the front porch. Can’t have her hit the ground. ????
 
iGRXY said:
The 4”+ of rainfall and 20-30 mph sustained/40+mph gusts here really has me worried. We’ve gotten significant rainfall the last few weeks that comes every 3-5 days and has dropped at least an inch minimum everytime here. That with the combination of hills/mountains and abundance of creeks, streams, and rivers for runoff and creating flood prone areas has me worried near myself. The severe weather is an after thought in my head right now in mby. The rainfall alone is crazy to see not being driven by a tropical system. I expect numerous power outages and down trees around here.
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Can‘t agree more. Poop ton of recent rain and high winds even without the severe concern me. Perhaps, @NCSNOW or @packfan98 can weigh in on Triad impacts? Please….
 
weatherfide said:
Heavy rain and 40.6 here. Wind is not too high, less than 10 mph.
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Looks like sleet in Dahlonega, so maybe some rare sleetnadoes. Keep your eyes peeled. Much more rare than thundersnow. 41.2 here and dripping. A not so rare dry patch. Did have a tree snap off and blast my chainlink fence in the winds this morning. Fun with chainsaw time this afternoon.
 
dsaur said:
Looks like sleet in Dahlonega, so maybe some rare sleetnadoes. Keep your eyes peeled. Much more rare than thundersnow. 41.2 here and dripping. A not so rare dry patch. Did have a tree snap off and blast my chainlink fence in the winds this morning. Fun with chainsaw time this afternoon.
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Tony, you would love that! Happy New Year buddy.
 
Thanks, pal....I bet pellets at 125 would hurt, lol. My point forecast for tomorrow is 62, and that brings the real spinners into the fore, and kind of leaves the sleetnadoes to mythology. But if my theory of fewer storms upping the ante for historical ones when they do hit...maybe sleetnado could really be a thing. Historic for sure, lol.
 
NWS ATL checking in with update:

Severe Threat:

Very impressive parameter space looks to set up over the CWA during
the early morning hours and into the afternoon on Tuesday. Strong
WAA overnight will allow for two not so great things - the first, it
will keep the boundary layer well mixed, likely preventing any
nocturnal inversion from setting up, and second, will likely help
break down our CAD/wedge in place. Normally I would say the wedge
will win out, but with a 80+ kt jet at 850mb overspreading the
region, that will aid greatly in mixing it out. That being said, the
best winds in that won`t arrive until the morning hours as the line
begins pushing through, so it may take a bit of time for the warm
sector to lift through the CWA. The current SPC outlook reflects
this nicely, showing biggest risks from Columbus to Macon and then
pushing north.

The wind threat will likely be the biggest risk right out. With the
very strong kinematics, mixing down big winds in the strongest
storms won`t take much in the way of instability. QLCS tornadoes
will likely be in play, especially given fish hook look to the
hodographs which give tremendous SRH values of 200-400 m2/s2. The
big question mark is the instability. This has potential to be a
classic HSLC event, but the ability to be fully surface based will
likely be dependent on how quickly and how strong the WAA occurs.
This creates uncertainty in the northern extent, and certainly won`t
rule out seeing some severe weather as far north as the metro if
WAA really gets moving.
 
tractor girl said:
NWS ATL checking in with update:

Severe Threat:

Very impressive parameter space looks to set up over the CWA during
the early morning hours and into the afternoon on Tuesday. Strong
WAA overnight will allow for two not so great things - the first, it
will keep the boundary layer well mixed, likely preventing any
nocturnal inversion from setting up, and second, will likely help
break down our CAD/wedge in place. Normally I would say the wedge
will win out, but with a 80+ kt jet at 850mb overspreading the
region, that will aid greatly in mixing it out. That being said, the
best winds in that won`t arrive until the morning hours as the line
begins pushing through, so it may take a bit of time for the warm
sector to lift through the CWA. The current SPC outlook reflects
this nicely, showing biggest risks from Columbus to Macon and then
pushing north.

The wind threat will likely be the biggest risk right out. With the
very strong kinematics, mixing down big winds in the strongest
storms won`t take much in the way of instability. QLCS tornadoes
will likely be in play, especially given fish hook look to the
hodographs which give tremendous SRH values of 200-400 m2/s2. The
big question mark is the instability. This has potential to be a
classic HSLC event, but the ability to be fully surface based will
likely be dependent on how quickly and how strong the WAA occurs.
This creates uncertainty in the northern extent, and certainly won`t
rule out seeing some severe weather as far north as the metro if
WAA really gets moving.
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This is old from earlier today
 
yeah, their 3:21pm update remains unchanged per the 8:20PM update.

"
.UPDATE...
Issued at 820 PM EST Mon Jan 8 2024

Light rain showers currently extend into the CWA from Macon to ATL
and south. No lightning is currently present, however
precipitation coverage will continue to increase through the
overnight hours. Otherwise no significant adjustments to the short
term outlook.

&&"
 
Euro has a 66mph just in Atlanta tomorrow morning. Don’t think that will verify but who knowsC192ADF4-2982-4093-A718-D49E30A337E9.png
 
Warm front is through down here at wilmington. Wind picked up out of the southeast temps skyrocketed. From 4:35am to 5:25am we saw a 16 degree jump in 50 minutes.

There's a 9 degree jump in 5 minutes from 455 to 500
 

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