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Severe Jan 8-11 2024 System Severe

Don't care for the looks of this one on Tuesday night in my red neck of the woods
 
NCSNOW said:
mrdaddyman thank you so much. Lowest one here is 48-50 highest mid 60s [nam an gfs]. 50 mph+ gust 2-4 rain on our swamp soil will cause a few issues no doubt.
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It's really hard to thing that there will be widespread 50+ mph wind gusts. The stronger tutors, sure. Maybe there are numerous gusts into the 40s, which is still substantial, but the wind maps seem way overdone, as usual.
 
Rain Cold said:
It's really hard to thing that there will be widespread 50+ mph wind gusts. The stronger tutors, sure. Maybe there are numerous gusts into the 40s, which is still substantial, but the wind maps seem way overdone, as usual.
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Agreed, wind maps are like ice maps to me.
 
Rain Cold said:
It's really hard to thing that there will be widespread 50+ mph wind gusts. The stronger tutors, sure. Maybe there are numerous gusts into the 40s, which is still substantial, but the wind maps seem way overdone, as usual.
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Yeah, I generally cut them by at least a third as a rule of thumb.
 
I know we say it a lot but if there's a time these gust map come close to verifying it appears this setup is it. Even if you reduce most guidance by 25% you're still looking at widespread gust of 40+ and as noted, saturated grounds could definitely see some power outage issues. One saving grace, time of year, trees without leaves
 
Rain Cold said:
It's really hard to thing that there will be widespread 50+ mph wind gusts. The stronger tutors, sure. Maybe there are numerous gusts into the 40s, which is still substantial, but the wind maps seem way overdone, as usual.
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Keep in mind that this reflects the absolute maximum wind gust through the entire event, not the baseline average wind and gusts though. I look at it as what could be possible as a benchmark.
 
Stormsfury said:
Keep in mind that this reflects the absolute maximum wind gust through the entire event, not the baseline average wind and gusts though. I look at it as what could be possible as a benchmark.
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Yeah for sure. This is a really anomalous system, and the winds aloft are quite strong. I just don't trust those gust maps at all. If we do get any CAPE though, all bets are off.
 
Rain Cold said:
Yeah for sure. This is a really anomalous system, and the winds aloft are quite strong. I just don't trust those gust maps at all. If we do get any CAPE though, all bets are off.
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I doubt many believe the max gust they show, but once those maps start showing 60-70 mph gust, 40 becomes more likely
 
Rain Cold said:
Yeah for sure. This is a really anomalous system, and the winds aloft are quite strong. I just don't trust those gust maps at all. If we do get any CAPE though, all bets are off.
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I don't remember seeing a setup like this in January...ever, or maybe one other in 2011.. winds were extremely gusty but it was a nighttime event, and no instability whatsoever down here.
 
Rain Cold said:
It's really hard to thing that there will be widespread 50+ mph wind gusts. The stronger tutors, sure. Maybe there are numerous gusts into the 40s, which is still substantial, but the wind maps seem way overdone, as usual.
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Yea im with you. Euro is usually way over top on gust maps and its actually the lowest of all the frames.
 
Stormsfury said:
I don't remember seeing a setup like this in January...ever, or maybe one other in 2011.. winds were extremely gusty but it was a nighttime event, and no instability whatsoever down here.
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Wasnt that an artic front, we actually had cold catch moisture and post frontal frozen for like 20 minutes here right after it passed. Flash Freeze if my memory is correct.
 
NCSNOW said:
Wasnt that an artic front, we actually had cold catch moisture and post frontal frozen for like 20 minutes here right after it passed. Flash Freeze if my memory is correct.
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Might have been, but I do remember the 50-55 mph wind gusts were in the warm sector here... Woke me up from the roar in the middle of the night.
 
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