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Severe Jan 8-11 2024 System Severe

Hi-res modeling showing some healthy dbz's with the snow shower activity tomorrow evening for middle & east TN, and far northern AL/GA. Good chance we score our 1st measurable snowfall for BNA, HUN, CHA, and TYS. Mainly 1/2" or less valleys and 1-2" on the plateau. Fairly typical post-cutter setup with the mountains blocking the exit of low level moisture while cold temps aloft squeeze it out.
 
cyclogent said:
Hi-res modeling showing some healthy dbz's with the snow shower activity tomorrow evening for middle & east TN, and far northern AL/GA. Good chance we score our 1st measurable snowfall for BNA, HUN, CHA, and TYS. Mainly 1/2" or less valleys and 1-2" on the plateau. Fairly typical post-cutter setup with the mountains blocking the exit of low level moisture while cold temps aloft squeeze it out.
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I like the direction of the banding too. We can score a little better with this setup.
 
cyclogent said:
Hi-res modeling showing some healthy dbz's with the snow shower activity tomorrow evening for middle & east TN, and far northern AL/GA. Good chance we score our 1st measurable snowfall for BNA, HUN, CHA, and TYS. Mainly 1/2" or less valleys and 1-2" on the plateau. Fairly typical post-cutter setup with the mountains blocking the exit of low level moisture while cold temps aloft squeeze it out.
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I'm going to break this thread into a snow and severe thread. I think the snow has a chance to earn its own place
 
First thing we have to watch in NC tomorrow will be any cells riding the warm front as it surges north. Think with how warm it is aloft much of this will be elevated but anything that can root to the sfc will have a chance to produce a tornado as they should be able to rotate
 
Next I think people are going u get lulled into thinking this is a bust through the first half of the day tomorrow as the residual rain and wedge will keep wind pretty tame once the WF passes that unlocks the potential for the more extreme wind gusts
 
SD said:
Next I think people are going u get lulled into thinking this is a bust through the first half of the day tomorrow as the residual rain and wedge will keep wind pretty tame once the WF passes that unlocks the potential for the more extreme wind gusts
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Are the models still printing out the high gusts or have they tamed down a little bit?
 
Rain Cold said:
Are the models still printing out the high gusts or have they tamed down a little bit?
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I haven't had a chance to look at the gust maps but the 12z gfs and nam have 30kt sustained winds if that happens gusts 40-50 seem likely to me. Most of these wind maps look more impressive than they have for our recent tropical systems
 
Finally I think how much rain we get in the free sector ahead of the line will determine what we get when the main line arrives. If we are rainy and slow to break the wedge tomorrow that will have a tendency to hold back the main line approaching but may enhance a local tor threat along and residual tmb.
 
SD said:
Next I think people are going u get lulled into thinking this is a bust through the first half of the day tomorrow as the residual rain and wedge will keep wind pretty tame once the WF passes that unlocks the potential for the more extreme wind gusts
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I wonder if the rain during the morning can help lower the energy for the aevere weather later in the afternoon.
 
Cmon bruh, 3k nam got some spots of 500+ 0-3km srh tomorrow evening in ENC
srh01.us_ma.png
 
Brick Tamland said:
I wonder if the rain during the morning can help lower the energy for the aevere weather later in the afternoon.
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Depends on how effective it is at locking in any cad that can resist the warm moist surge. We've seen this go either way in the past but I personally don't see a lot here that can impede the SE flow off of the Atlantic for us. If we get the WF through but keep the warm sector drizzly with some showers that might hamper instability some possibly reducing the tornado threat but the ridiculous forcing from the west would offset it on the convective wind threat side
 
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