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Wintry Jan 3-4 2024 System
- Thread starter SD
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NAM looks about the same as 18Z so far...I'm mostly interested in observing how each high res model handles the system and I don't think it's actually going to snow at the surface.
36/25
NWS forecast is 33, TWC is 29. Depending on the timing of the cloud cover I can see it getting down to around 30-32 before leveling off. Not expecting much of anything, but if we some flakes flying that’s a W I guess.??
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NWS forecast is 33, TWC is 29. Depending on the timing of the cloud cover I can see it getting down to around 30-32 before leveling off. Not expecting much of anything, but if we some flakes flying that’s a W I guess.??
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Flatter through 15
Yeah, this is going to need a lot of stars to align to see anything besides maybe a few token flakes, but good point about it being a good test run for the short range models
NAM says no
Cad Wedge NC
Member
Better hope for something good on the next run or this one is dead. We are at the point where it is almost too late for trends.
If anybody wants to keep a slimmer of hope, the FV3 hi-res model looks alright haha
Same here. 30/28 but I doubt it will matter much.
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Tomorrow might be a good day to be at the top of the Westin Peachtree or such.
Nerman
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0z nam not that different from 12z
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Already at 33.3 and a dewpoint of 28.1 but it won't matter anyway as we will shoot to 50 by tomorrow afternoon.
Well, that was an ugly NAM run. 
Looking at the cloud simulations, I suppose we have a virga storm inbound lol.
Looking at the cloud simulations, I suppose we have a virga storm inbound lol.
00z Icon
Yep. Down to 30/26 here but alas it doesn't matter it seems
accu35
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Just that the low is further south
WEATHERBOYROY
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Radar and satellite imagery looks a little bit more robust than model forecast, and temps are a definite bust on the cold side of model forecast. Moisture and cold are what we need, so maybe a little bit better shot than the models show now?
Sky86
Member
It was clear and cold here when I got home from work at 10:30.
27/24
Still clear skies, 6 degrees colder than NWS forecast and 2 degrees colder than TWC’s forecast. Not seeing any mPING reports on the precip in MS/AL right now so most likely virga as expected.
Still clear skies, 6 degrees colder than NWS forecast and 2 degrees colder than TWC’s forecast. Not seeing any mPING reports on the precip in MS/AL right now so most likely virga as expected.
20.1 this morning but has crept up to 20.7. Probably doesn't mean anything.
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25.7 at my house this morning. One of the coldest of the season, no doubt. Such a shame that the mid to upper levels are so unfavorable for a snow storm.
Honestly, The only ingredient missing is >.25 inches of precip. Temps seem just fine for some at least some novelty flakes.
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closest ground truth I could find is Evergreen, AL with -rn
12Z FV3. Wet, but too warm at the surface.
12Z NAM says what ya smoking.
12Z NAM says what ya smoking.
sorry yall. tough year so far.
FV3 might be what representative of North GA from the Birmingham radar later today. Just a ton of virga - already going crazy with that over Mississippi and Alabama12Z FV3. Wet, but too warm at the surface.
12Z NAM says what ya smoking.
Nerman
Member
That's where the moisture is. The 3k NAM fired the warning shot this was unlikely to work out for North GA.
Windergawx
Member
thanks coach! we have been played by all models even as we know from recent years footage how this plays out.
but we have heart!
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Yes, the important thing to learn is which short range models are best and at what ranges. Right now, RGEM at 36 hours is my favorite, NAM 3K at 24, HRRR at 24 to 36, maybe, and trash the FV3, and all the HRW WRFs.
RGEM has always been my favorite as well, ever since it nailed the December 7&8th 2017 system.
Just a shame. A good blanket of clouds and 29 degrees. It has all of the looks and feels outside but nada.
Ron Burgundy
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Virga storm breaking out on northern MS / AL border ?
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Go rent a Cessna 182 and fly around at 8,000 ft and enjoy!Virga storm breaking out on northern MS / AL border ?
Makeitsnow
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Yep...however I will note there is a pretty good slug of precip in southern Alabama heading ne. Not sure it will be enough but something to watch