Wintry Jan 3-4 2024 System

[Snowfan]

One thing to keep an eye is what the radar looks like tommorow afternoon. This is what the NAM 3km/12km looks like at 17z.

Yep..very dry...as low as -40c at 750 to 800mb. . If you looked at the composite reflectivity on the nam/4km nam/hrrr on the college of Purdue site we are going to have a monster virga storm so it might be quite painful. However those low wetbulb zero heights probably means there is a good chance that if anything does reach the ground it won't be all liquid or it won't be long before you see a mix..even with temps in the low to mid 40s.

Even with so little precip the nam drops everyone 8 to 10 degrees in 2 hours tomorrow afternoon. I hope there is enough..Those wild evap cooling events are cool to see.

 

[Snowfan]

Latest RGEM has the moisture but as rain.

 

[Drizzle Snizzle]

Latest RGEM has the moisture but as rain. View attachment 139802

perfect track for a big snow in Atlanta and its rain ?

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

perfect track for a big snow in Atlanta and its rain ?

Not to mention that is even with it forecasting morning lows that are WAY too cold.

 

[weatherfide]

Already at 37 degrees. About 4 degrees colder than forecast for this timeframe.

 

[weatherfide]

Latest RGEM has the moisture but as rain. View attachment 139802

It doesn't have saturation of the dendritic growth zone it appears from the sounding. Need more lift?

 

[J.C.]

Already at 37 degrees. About 4 degrees colder than forecast for this timeframe.

Not that it matters at this juncture, but my wet bulb is down to 34F. We will see what temps do when the thick cloud deck rolls in. I’m curious as to what high res model is winning verification so far.

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

The radar looks mighty good over in Texas and the system is just beginning to tap the gulf.

 

[Nerman]

The radar looks mighty good over in Texas and the system is just beginning to tap the gulf.

Most models like HRRR didn't have it getting up to the OK border where it is now. Not sure how much it will matter down the road.

 

[chase5ash]

Down to 35 in Suwanee. Getting cold quick

 

[Arcc]

I'm saving this here so that I can make virtual snow balls tomorrow night. View attachment 139774

Dang, I’ll take that 2-3” and call it a winter.

 

[GaStorm]

I really don't think this will be more than flurries for north ga and the mountains unless we see more moisture. Doesn't matter to me since I fully expect more opportunities soon.

 

[weatherfide]

Dang, I’ll take that 2-3” and call it a winter.

At this point, I'd trade six more snow-less winters for 2-3" of snow. Down to 35.8 with a dewpoint of 28.0 and wet bulb of 32.9. Clear skies, though. I'll probably shoot up to 40 once that soft, gray blanket of clouds moves in later.

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

00Z HRRR gets rain into the Atlanta metro this run. The problem is the surface is on ? (mid-forties!)

 

[chase5ash]

00Z HRRR actually shows a lot more moisture moving through the ATL metro but doesn't really show much in the way of getting the temps down.

Wonder if virga and evaporative cooling could get those temperatures a little lower but isn't really picking up on it. Curious if the 00Z NAM will hold serve on that idea.

 

[weatherfide]

Not that it matters at this juncture, but my wet bulb is down to 34F. We will see what temps do when the thick cloud deck rolls in. I’m curious as to what high res model is winning verification so far.

The RGEM has me at 37 from 18Z run at 00Z (7 pm local). That was about right on the nose.

 

[ForsythSnow]

00Z HRRR gets rain into the Atlanta metro this run. The problem is the surface is on ? (mid-forties!)

It might not be taking into account dynamic cooling as much as the NAM is. The heavier the precip the higher the temps will drop. Then again, the NAM and HRRR temp profiles are different at 925.

 

[weatherfide]

0z NAM is running...(why not do play by play?)

 

[JoshuaMurrayWX]

Already at 33 at my location in NW Georgia.

 

[malak05]

Im already at 30 degrees according to my weather station outside in Dallas Ga Low was to be 29 and that was for tomorrow at 7am