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Wintry Jan 3-4 2024 System

There is a huge dry slot in the lower levels that is incredibly dry. It’s almost taken 2.5 goes to moisten the column in Birmingham. Still just a few spits of rain. Really not much cold source with this system to our NW to tap into. Flurries at best.


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Too bad this system didn't come through 12 hours earlier, many of us had more cold to work with last night than now. In my area, despite thick clouds all day, my temp has gone from a low of 24 to 43 currently; way too warm for anything there. My dp is only 30 so there won't be much wetbulbing. Looks like some good low dps still in the mountains; elvation should see some flakage tonight.
 
I'm thinking, based on the radar, Newnan will report rain/snow/sleet before Woodstock. Also, those returns north of Columbus are very interesting.
Those heavier returns could help juice up the column and drop surface temps quicker across areas it moves through. Similar to what happened around Montgomery vs what has happened in Birmingham. Wish we had some mping reports down in the Auburn/Opelika area right now
 
Those heavier returns could help juice up the column and drop surface temps quicker across areas it moves through. Similar to what happened around Montgomery vs what has happened in Birmingham. Wish we had some mping reports down in the Auburn/Opelika area right now
There was another mPing report in Columbus of sleet just now.
 
Those heavier returns could help juice up the column and drop surface temps quicker across areas it moves through. Similar to what happened around Montgomery vs what has happened in Birmingham. Wish we had some mping reports down in the Auburn/Opelika area right now
Appears to be mostly liquid down I-85, according to this link:

 
MPing sleet report now in Thomaston as that bright band on radar moves in
That makes sense given the sounding. The boundary is pretty warm and sleet is going to make it to the ground as it falls much faster. Also, the DGZ may not be saturated sufficiently. The 935 to 850 mb layer is cooling quickly and likely cold enough to refreeze any rain or snow falling through it.
 
The truth about the NAM is it is only right when it shows what you don’t want. It doesn’t matter then if it’s in the pack or completely off in left field alone. It only exists to make you cry….
Isn't this the truth. It can show you a foot of snow 10 times a winter and be wrong. The first run showing a warm nose during a winter storm will be 100% correct.
 
February 2015 still haunts me to this day.
That one and January 2017 were just plain brutal for MBY. My NWS Point forecast from GSP had me forecasted 10-14 inches just a couple hours before precip started… I ended up with a slushy inch as precip went back and forth between rain, sleet and snow the entire time. January 2017 I was forecasted 4-7”, but instead had 12 hours of ZR that accrued to 1/3” then a 1/2” of snow as the storm was ending… there was absolutely no mention of freezing rain in my point forecast, and of course the next day with 30mph wind gusts I had lost power by noon on a day that temps stayed in the 20s.
 
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