Wintry Jan 3-4 2024 System

[Snowfan]

If the 0z GFS shows this tonight, then things get more interesting.

Clown mapView attachment 139695

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

I see the 18Z ICON has expanded its precip field northward this cycle. Still all rain, but I suspect that's a result of lighter precip as opposed to the much more aggressive 12K NAM rather than simply warmer thermals.

 

[Snowfan]

 

[Drizzle Snizzle]

That's interesting because I thought there would be more precip near Atlanta than in far north GA.

 

[NEGaweather]

That's interesting because I thought there would be more precip near Atlanta than in far north GA.

They said in afternoon discussion that they were waiting for more confidence before mentioning areas further south.


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[Ron Burgundy]

That's interesting because I thought there would be more precip near Atlanta than in far north GA.

There will be. FFC just isn’t biting on it being frozen precip yet. Getting the GFS on board will get their attention tho - assuming it holds at 00z.

 

[J.C.]

That's interesting because I thought there would be more precip near Atlanta than in far north GA.

I mean, it’s FFC.

 

[jrips27]

That's interesting because I thought there would be more precip near Atlanta than in far north GA.

That’s just them being conservative and playing the “mountains typically do better” card. FFC doesn’t like to go out on any limbs. Which is probably correct right now given how marginal of a situation it is

 

[EmersonGA]

I think I’m going to wish I was back in Emerson for this one. That little bit of elevation may help.

 

[Drizzle Snizzle]

That’s just them being conservative and playing the “mountains typically do better” card. FFC doesn’t like to go out on any limbs. Which is probably correct right now given how marginal of a situation it is

I think it's probably smart of them at this juncture.

 

[Brent]

I think it's probably smart of them at this juncture.

I mean yeah I get it's FFC but this setup is so borderline high bust potential if they go all out and predict snow everywhere

 

[Chazwin]

I mean yeah I get it's FFC but this setup is so borderline high bust potential if they go all out and predict snow everywhere

I wouldn’t be surprised if any of the NWS offices dealing with this wait until within 12 hours or less to commit to anything in their forecasts.

 

[$alt]

My assumption is the NAM and HRRR will be predominantly too warm for a lot of people when we get within 24 hours or so.

 

[weatherfide]

Looks like the 0Z HRRR is about to end this thread.

 

[Nerman]

HRRR suppressed at 0Z

 

[Chazwin]

HRRR suppressed at 0Z

Yeah… moisture doesn’t get north of central Alabama and Georgia. This thing has got to get amped up for it work.

 

[Drizzle Snizzle]

Yeah… moisture doesn’t get north of central Alabama and Georgia. This thing has got to get amped up for it work.

no wintry precip for Central GA ?

 

[SnowedIn1]

no wintry precip for Central GA ?

not on the HRRR

 

[Chazwin]

no wintry precip for Central GA ?

No.

 

[Branch]

Precip always comes further north from central Alabama than modeled