Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Lol yeah I think I'm good now w/ the short-term amping trends.
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Wintry Jan 27-28 Snow Potential Official Thread
- Thread starter RBR71
- Start date
Lol yeah I think I'm good now w/ the short-term amping trends.
Ooo la ----
Also the 3k NAM went from a 1003mb slp to a 997mb with the most recent run, now I'm glad this thing isn't turning the corner up the coast or WAA would be an issue up here too.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Still staying on the lowest end.
Looks reasonable.
But this is the only forecast map a real weenie would look at. I’m polishing off my snow shovel for the 8” I’m about to get in Durham. modernweenie modernweenie modernweenie
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Lol that's the definition of pain
Here’s a fun map .. visibility’s as the storm is moving through ... has around .7 miles as the visibility at RDU for 4 or so hours
Rates won’t overcome ! Finding new ways to suck
I wouldn't be surprised if they issued a winter storm watch up here since it's getting close to warning criteria on the low end now, they can always go back to an advisory or bump it up to a warning as the night progresses.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Funny how that's the high end but the official forecast is still at the very lowest end and not somewhere in the middle.
Tick further south!
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yeah that's why I wanted the big PV lobe to drop southward, had that not happened this thing would have shot all the way back into the mid-Atlantic & central Apps
Right on time, it was my tweet to them yesterday that pushed them across the finish line lol
That's good, probably means starting to finally zero in on location of heaviest axis.... always like to see the north trend stop
blueheronNC
Member
Downtown Raleigh itself is teetering on the edge of where totals will drop off markedly. No more northward shifts ty.
Blend of all models, slight increase.... nice to see positive trends leading into an event for a change
LovingGulfLows
Member
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Wow NAM even has some potent frontogenetic forcing in the 700mb layer. Northern NC is going to have a lot of fun tonight.
WWAs and WSWs are two different notifications for the NWS
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
And I think the last NAM is really the only one keeping the totals down.
Thanks Nick, interesting that their criteria for a Watch is 50% chance greater than 3" of snow and the Advisory is 1-3"....
From Rah AFD and this is why they are on the lower end, smart imho and why they stayed with the advisory (plus roads shouldn't really be an issue)
Recent model trends have produced heavier precipitation tonight and
have come into better agreement with the surface and thermal pattern
and precipitation amounts. Several of the models now produce
0.10 to 0.15 inches of liquid precipitation per hour for a
couple of hours across the northern half of central NC. Given
the trend, have opted to increase snow accumulations across the
area with 1 to 3 inches expected across the north and northeast
and a more general 1 to 2 inches in the Triad and Triangle.
Accumulating snow has been expanded south a bit and have
expanded the winter weather advisory in Lee, Harnett, Johnston
and Wayne counties. Snow will most readily accumulate on grassy
and elevated surfaces and be slower to accumulate on roadways.
Have opted not to jump on board some of the guidance which is
showing much larger accumulations that range close to or in
excess of 6 inches given the tendency for some of these
algorithms to be overzealous with the snow accumulations, the
warm to start boundary layer and the narrow window of
accumulating snow. Lows tonight will fall into the 30 to 36
range with winds increasing and becoming northerly tonight and
gusting from 15 to 25 mph at times. -blaes
Recent model trends have produced heavier precipitation tonight and
have come into better agreement with the surface and thermal pattern
and precipitation amounts. Several of the models now produce
0.10 to 0.15 inches of liquid precipitation per hour for a
couple of hours across the northern half of central NC. Given
the trend, have opted to increase snow accumulations across the
area with 1 to 3 inches expected across the north and northeast
and a more general 1 to 2 inches in the Triad and Triangle.
Accumulating snow has been expanded south a bit and have
expanded the winter weather advisory in Lee, Harnett, Johnston
and Wayne counties. Snow will most readily accumulate on grassy
and elevated surfaces and be slower to accumulate on roadways.
Have opted not to jump on board some of the guidance which is
showing much larger accumulations that range close to or in
excess of 6 inches given the tendency for some of these
algorithms to be overzealous with the snow accumulations, the
warm to start boundary layer and the narrow window of
accumulating snow. Lows tonight will fall into the 30 to 36
range with winds increasing and becoming northerly tonight and
gusting from 15 to 25 mph at times. -blaes
snowlover91
Member
Smart move, and the recent amping trend on 3km NAM and HRRR would argue for a warm nose that could push the best totals into southern VA if it continues. Right now the 3km NAM passes the 850 low from CLT to Morehead City. Typically the best snowfall will occur just north of this track by 50-100 miles.
D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
Frankly I will be happy if we can get 1-2" on the ground here. I will call that a win. Good luck to everyone.
SWVAwxfan
Member
2-4 inches only brings a wwa in my area
Final call:
SWVAwxfan
Member
Is the zero for Bricks area? Asking for a friend.
SWVAwxfan
Member
Looks like a lot of people in Charlotte will be staring at street lights tonight
I'm just playing with Brick there. He's in the 1-2" zone...probably closer to an inch, though.
I like the jackpot lollipops over Roxboro and Metwannabe.
SWVAwxfan
Member
Good luck you guys. Looks like a 2-4" official forecast for my area
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
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Roanoke and Christiansburg folks will!
SWVAwxfan
Member
Might not be able to see the streetlights if the latest 12k NAM and SREF verify
SWVAwxfan
Member
Yea. I think his part of Wake county will do decent.
You're in a seriously good spot for the Sunday storm
olhausen
Member
Absolutely pouring fatties here. Temp 36.9 degrees
Heaviest snow I’ve seen in a while.
Heaviest snow I’ve seen in a while.
Tim Buckley's forecast:
I agree
I agree
SWVAwxfan
Member
Awesome. And from looking at the temp forecast. That snow would fall on the snow that falls tonight and tomorrow. Looking at a good stretch of really cold temps
SWVAwxfan
Member
Doesn't look good for Big Frosty.
Dewpoint Dan
Member
I'm sure you will see some melting with sunshine on Fri and Sat but i imagine you'll still have some snow left on Sat night.