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Wintry Jan 27-28 Snow Potential Official Thread

From Rah AFD and this is why they are on the lower end, smart imho and why they stayed with the advisory (plus roads shouldn't really be an issue)

Recent model trends have produced heavier precipitation tonight and
have come into better agreement with the surface and thermal pattern
and precipitation amounts. Several of the models now produce
0.10 to 0.15 inches of liquid precipitation per hour for a
couple of hours across the northern half of central NC. Given
the trend, have opted to increase snow accumulations across the
area with 1 to 3 inches expected across the north and northeast
and a more general 1 to 2 inches in the Triad and Triangle.
Accumulating snow has been expanded south a bit and have
expanded the winter weather advisory in Lee, Harnett, Johnston
and Wayne counties. Snow will most readily accumulate on grassy
and elevated surfaces and be slower to accumulate on roadways.
Have opted not to jump on board some of the guidance which is
showing much larger accumulations that range close to or in
excess of 6 inches given the tendency for some of these
algorithms to be overzealous with the snow accumulations, the
warm to start boundary layer and the narrow window of
accumulating snow. Lows tonight will fall into the 30 to 36
range with winds increasing and becoming northerly tonight and
gusting from 15 to 25 mph at times. -blaes
 
Smart move, and the recent amping trend on 3km NAM and HRRR would argue for a warm nose that could push the best totals into southern VA if it continues. Right now the 3km NAM passes the 850 low from CLT to Morehead City. Typically the best snowfall will occur just north of this track by 50-100 miles.
 
Frankly I will be happy if we can get 1-2" on the ground here. I will call that a win. Good luck to everyone.
 
SWVAwxfan said:
Awesome. And from looking at the temp forecast. That snow would fall on the snow that falls tonight and tomorrow. Looking at a good stretch of really cold temps
Click to expand...
I'm sure you will see some melting with sunshine on Fri and Sat but i imagine you'll still have some snow left on Sat night.
 
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