Wintry Jan 27-28 Snow Potential Official Thread

[Ollie Williams]

The timeframe looks to be between 11pm Wednesday, and 5am Thursday. Will be nice to have this happen in the middle of the night, rather than the day.

 

[Brick Tamland]

What a comeback this has been. All about storm bombing out right as it exits coast. This has way more high side bust potential than low side. If it fails want have to wait but for 3 days and try again. Good Times

Yeah, if this ends up being nothing at least it brings the cold for the Sunday system.

 

[blueheronNC]

Mike Maze WRAL thinking "dusting - 1/2inch" as cold chases the moisture. "May just be a novelty."

 

[tramadoc]

Supposed to be a high of 57° here today. Only hit 51°.

 

[WeatherNC]

This is going to be a bust of moderate proportions whichever way it goes. Will WFOs issue Advisories and if so who gets blanked?

 

[Brick Tamland]

One thing I have noticed about the GFS today is the consistency of where it is showing the heaviest amounts. It is in the same spot this run, but just more.

 

[Brick Tamland]

Para totals

Para pretty much like the GFS, too, and has been just as consistent with the heaviest areas of accumulation.

 

[WxGSO]

Mike Maze WRAL thinking "dusting - 1/2inch" as cold chases the moisture. "May just be a novelty."

You can ALWAYS adjust high, but taking back a big forecast of snow doesn't go well
The 18z model runs are exciting to see, tho....

 

[Brick Tamland]

Good point. I think they gimped the NAMs when they tweaked them for QPF output, lol.

Really, they might have overcorrected things because of how it used to way overdo the precip.

 

[Broken024]

We are either lucky or just a bunch of suckers...

View attachment 68253

Suckers is my vote

 

[Chazwin]

One thing I have noticed about the GFS today is the consistency of where it is showing the heaviest amounts. It is in the same spot this run, but just more.

This is correct for the most part. Perhaps it’s nudged a bit south, but more than anything the total area of snowfall has expanded

 

[SouthGarnerSleet]

How accurate are the RAP and HRRR at the 24-36hr range? Little bit out there for those short range models isn't it.

One of the most accurate models there is. The Tom Brady of models if you will.

 

[LickWx]

It's about to take on that SW to NE slant, with a few more ticks like that.

Was just about to post that it was taking on that look. That would be great for Charlotte and the western Piedmont but would jeopardize eastern NC

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Euro coming in more juiced

 

[Brick Tamland]

Euro coming in more juiced View attachment 68259View attachment 68260

That is a big increase

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I smelly smell Deformation zone under favorable dCVA

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

CAVE

 

[Brick Tamland]

Also looks to have the similar spot for the most snow as the GFS and para GFS.

 

[ajr]

Looking healthy upstream

 

[superjames1992]

I am starting to believe this might actually happen.