Wintry Jan 27-28 Snow Potential Official Thread

[Ollie Williams]

Do you have the Carolinas version of that map?

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This is the closest I can get.

 

[BIG FROSTY]

Just a friendly reminder It's the GFS! Be sure and have your depression med's for post event......................

 

[Shaggy]

Clear snow sounding, and not particularly close. Interesting!!!

I would assune.......i suck at soundings...... that anywhere along and just south of that rn/sn line could actually be seeing snow under heaviest returns even us guys in the east?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

lol if this is right those are huge and I mean huge rates, as long as it keeps trending west it’s fine but any NW trend and you start running into a possible mid level warm nose (which I’m not worried about)

 

[Chazwin]

Paste bomb View attachment 68239View attachment 68240

If we could just extend that about 20-25 miles south

 

[Myfrotho704_]

How did dec 2010 do ? I know it came back but was it in this fashion ?

 

[Ollie Williams]

How did dec 2010 do ? I know it came back but was it in this fashion ?

I believe it came back via a NW trend, not a SE trend.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

???

 

[Chazwin]

If we could just extend that about 20-25 miles south

Even as I posted that, I looked and see that 29/30 GEFS members have at least snow falling for me and 27/30 have at least a 1/2 inch. If the GFS is right and its trends continue just a little more southwest, then CLT metro is very much in play.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Whew chile, this is unbelievable

 

[Rain Cold]

Whew chile, this is unbelievable View attachment 68247

It's about to take on that SW to NE slant, with a few more ticks like that.

 

[CaryWx]

How accurate are the RAP and HRRR at the 24-36hr range? Little bit out there for those short range models isn't it.

 

[mrdaddyman]

I can't wait to see which model wins. I know which one I'm going with per past experience.

 

[LukeBarrette]

How accurate are the RAP and HRRR at the 24-36hr range? Little bit out there for those short range models isn't it.

This year ive noticed that the HRRR has been more accurate than the NAM. Thats goes at least for me in Roanoke.

 

[Thor]

Really trended to be right on top of each other. Didn't think the PV could catch up.

 

[NCSNOW]

What a comeback this has been. All about storm bombing out right as it exits coast. This has way more high side bust potential than low side. If it fails want have to wait but for 3 days and try again. Good Times

 

[Stormdoc]

I can't wait to see which model wins. I know which one I'm going with per past experience.

View attachment 68248

View attachment 68249

Normally I would agree, but in this case the difference between the two is not with a warm nose or thermals, but simply with precip amounts. Of course, it would be nice to see the NAM trend towards the GFS tonight!

 

[BHS1975]

HRRR is looking SWEEEEET!


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[KyloG]

We are either lucky or just a bunch of suckers...

 

[mrdaddyman]

Normally I would agree, but in this case the difference between the two is not with a warm nose or thermals, but simply with precip amounts. Of course, it would be nice to see the NAM trend towards the GFS tonight!

Good point. I think they gimped the NAMs when they tweaked them for QPF output, lol.