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Wintry Jan 27-28 Snow Potential Official Thread

I'm lik
BullCityWx said:
Oh ok, cool. We used to be in American Village and just moved to NE Durham. If you follow guess road to where it turns into a two lane, hang a left there and we’re about a mile north.


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I'm like 10 min south of y'all off sherron rd.
 
My concern is how some of the modeling is painting very little snow for portions of the NW Piedmont (GGEM; RGEM; RAP) including now the UK. Warning shots are being fired.

sn10_acc.us_state_nc_va.png
 
BullCityWx said:
Oh ok, cool. We used to be in American Village and just moved to NE Durham. If you follow guess road to where it turns into a two lane, hang a left there and we’re about a mile north.


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Nice! You seem to be in a relatively good spot for this!
 
Poimen said:
My concern is how some of the modeling is painting very little snow for portions of the NW Piedmont (GGEM; RGEM; RAP) including now the UK. Warning shots are being fired.

sn10_acc.us_state_nc_va.png
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Yeah, I would definitely be concerned about that in the Triad. Less so here, but it’s still a worry (the UKMET is pretty paltry here, too). It’s bizarre that we are at basically zero hour and we have one model’s ensemble mean showing damn near 12” at the GSO airport and the UKMET showing zilch!
 
Poimen said:
My concern is how some of the modeling is painting very little snow for portions of the NW Piedmont (GGEM; RGEM; RAP) including now the UK. Warning shots are being fired.

sn10_acc.us_state_nc_va.png
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The UKMET is showing a weaker/more suppressed 850mb low than other guidance atm which is why you're not seeing much on this run over the Triad. I'm not really buying that here though. Most times in the short-range these 850 lows amp and tick NW slightly, blocking of the low-level cold by the mountains will also entice some very minor NW adjustments that are better for the Triad.



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Be interesting to see how the local offices handle the noon runs.....MHX calling for 1-2" here right now dont see much reason for them to change that at this point...
 
Webberweather53 said:
The UKMET is showing a weaker/more suppressed 850mb low than other guidance atm which is why you're not seeing much on this run over the Triad. I'm not really buying that here though. Most times in the short-range these 850 lows amp and tick NW slightly, blocking of the low-level cold by the mountains will also entice some very minor NW adjustments that are better for the Triad.



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To go along with webbS point. From another met on another board.
Alright, glad the qpf picture got cleared up. i think there's more frontier to to figure out- how the cycle evolves. (i'm going to say cyclogenesis some here which basically means the formation of low pressure)

Guidance has a pretty interesting method of cyclogenesis- we don't get this that often to it's hard to say this definitively, but it appears we go lee cyclogenesis against the apps before a low forms off the coast? I'll pull a pressure field from an arbitrary model:

hrrr_mslp_wind_seus_16.png

We got two low pressure centers- one off the coast (as expected) but another floating around northern South Carolina. I think that this is doing two things:

-enhancing precip in the western piedmont and

-delaying the changeover in the eastern piedmont.

how this feature is modeled is something i'm keeping an eye on. i have *no idea* how this will evolve because we simply don't see setups like this very often and i don't have a sleeve for this in my mental rolodex. but, i think that if the coastal develops more quickly, surface winds will have a more northerly component and expedite cold air advection. this would mean less precip i think for, say, davidson.
 
Certainly not a fan of the soil temperatures. Although, if we get a good period of 50dbz snow, then this isn't as large of a barrier. Big wet snowflakes are pretty effective in accumulating with my experience.
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Brick Tamland said:
Sorry, 99% of them. :rolleyes:
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You do realize that totals are backing down from the insane garbage they were spewing out yesterday, right? There is going to be a warm nose somewhere in this that really lessens totals. On top of that, I think the 2M temps are going to limit a lot of what is “predicted” by the numerical models.
 
SouthGarnerSleet said:
One thing I am picking up when you blend all these together is the Greenville up slightly NW to Rocky Mount, NC areas.

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PGV can do well in these.....need the offshore low to take over quicker and to hang out a bit to really hit those higher totals though I think....if somehow we get temps to 30 and can snow good for 6+ hrs then sure 4-6" is doable but I have my doubts that works out...1-2" is the call for now from the NWS and that seems more likely than 4-6" at this point.......that said its been a long long time since something bust big in our favor, mother nature owes us one....
 
Ollie Williams said:
Certainly not a fan of the soil temperatures. Although, if we get a good period of 50dbz snow, then this isn't as large of a barrier. Big wet snowflakes are pretty effective in accumulating with my experience.
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Still think these soil temperatures will be enough to melt some of modeled snowfall. Another reason to shave these totals down a bit from model outputs.
 
tramadoc said:
You do realize that totals are backing down from the insane garbage they were spewing out yesterday, right? There is going to be a warm nose somewhere in this that really lessens totals. On top of that, I think the 2M temps are going to limit a lot of what is “predicted” by the numerical models.
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Not sure what you're looking at, but the Euro and NAM have increased today, and the GFS and HRRR have been holding steady. Anyway, not sure why you seem to have such an attitude about it. It's weird.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Not sure what you're looking at, but the Euro and NAM have increased today, and the GFS and HRRR have been holding steady. Anyway, not sure why you seem to have such an attitude about it. It's weird.
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I don’t have an attitude. I honestly hope you get to see what you’re thinking might happen. Honestly.
 
WxBlue said:
Still think these soil temperatures will be enough to melt some of modeled snowfall. Another reason to shave these totals down a bit from model outputs.
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I agree. I haven't seen below freezing soil temperatures in over three years, but I think that it depends on where you measure. Elevated surfaces and grass may come closer to modeled snow, but there may be a limited, or non-existent issue with roads.
 
If there’s such a thing as a 158 special, this looks like the right setup.

Doesn’t have the same ring to it as an I-40 special though. (or even 64)
 
YetAnotherRDUGuy said:
If there’s such a thing as a 158 special, this looks like the right setup.

Doesn’t have the same ring to it as an I-40 special though. (or even 64)
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I think that the first to change over will be up that way, but I don't think that I-40 will get shut out considering that they/we will have the highest rates and a relatively long time as snow.
 
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