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Wintry Jan 27-28 Snow Potential Official Thread

WxGSO said:
I'm not saying I agree with him, but as I mentioned in a previous post, you can ALWAYS adjust upwards, but it's impossible to take back a high forecast. If you notice, that's what KRDU does for winter storms.
Honestly, how often has the higher end amounts of a forecast for snow come true in NC? Typically, not very often.
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They do the same for the Nashville area and rightfully so. Just hours ago I had over a 4 inch mean showing up with almost every member showing 2-3 plus inches. Trends this morning however not looking promising. Obviously though storms effect our cities differently but I’d advise people to not get to excited over the gfs or it’s ensemble. That said North Carolina has many more models in agreement then this area did. This is probably going to be one of the bigger busts for the gfs I’ve seen in some time. I knew there was a good possibility it was going to be wrong but I was hoping today the blind squirrel would find it’s nut.
 
How's this looking for the Boone area? Heading up to Valle Crucis tonight for the weekend, will be bummed if I get more at home than in the mountains.
 
tramadoc said:
You do realize that totals are backing down from the insane garbage they were spewing out yesterday, right? There is going to be a warm nose somewhere in this that really lessens totals. On top of that, I think the 2M temps are going to limit a lot of what is “predicted” by the numerical models.
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Models haven’t backed down at all, they’ve either held steady or increased across the board. In fact HRRR continues to bump totals up as we get closer and has shifted colder as recently posted.
 
YetAnotherRDUGuy said:
If there’s such a thing as a 158 special, this looks like the right setup.

Doesn’t have the same ring to it as an I-40 special though. (or even 64)
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For some of us it does ;)

I'm actually still very cautiously optimistic, again 2" and I'd call it a huge win with soil temps, very wet soil, short duration event and maybe I'm wrong here but usually CAA is slower then modeled but we shall see.
 
Ollie Williams said:
I think that the first to change over will be up that way, but I don't think that I-40 will get shut out considering that they/we will have the highest rates and a relatively long time as snow.
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Agreed with that. I didn't mean to imply I-40 was looking bad, but just more highlighting that 158 ain't lookin too shabby right now.
Brick Tamland said:
I'm thinking 86 down to 85, across to 98, and then up 401 is going to be the hardest hit.

View attachment 68493
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Brick, I am just to the south of this blue line. But I'll take it!:cool:
 
Here in North Georgia, on the outside looking in on this one. Wishing you all the best though!

As I have followed this discussion over the last couple of weeks, couldn't help but think of the show Wicked Tuna. The storm was there, then trended to almost nothing and now it has trended back. When those guys are fishing on the show, sometimes they think they lost the fish, only to find out it was still on the line ... good luck on reeling this one in and hopefully it will be a keeper. (Too many times, my bait simply gets gone and I am reeling in nothing!)
 
metwannabe said:
For some of us it does ;)

I'm actually still very cautiously optimistic, again 2" and I'd call it a huge win with soil temps, very wet soil, short duration event and maybe I'm wrong here but usually CAA is slower then modeled but we shall see.
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I’m with you. I don’t think (just from experience about these things) that this is WAY over modeled. Ground temps, amount of time for changeover, water on the ground (from rain prior to changeover) warm nose, and actual track of the surface and upper level lows can all affect this to the point of not coming anywhere close to predictive modeling. Even AKQ is saying less than 2” total for their coverage area. That shows you how bullish they are. Not bullish at all. I’m more inclined to listen to them than anyone else.
 
Honestly, I DO NOT expect any accumulations here.. Due too "soil Temps',, unless rates or a possible Frontal Geneses Ban develops very close to My north, (Which is Modeled by about 20 miles or so..)
if anything,,, I'm looking at a paste bomb Starting around Daybreak, lasting about 3~4 hours..
Which I'll Gladly accept..
;)
Anything "extra"? I'll Sacrifice a Virgin SnowMan too the Weather Gods,, LOL J/K.. ;)

For Sundays event...
 
YetAnotherRDUGuy said:
Agreed with that. I didn't mean to imply I-40 was looking bad, but just more highlighting that 158 ain't lookin too shabby right now.

Brick, I am just to the south of this blue line. But I'll take it!:cool:
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I'm just north of the line. I'll send you some pics.... ;)
 
Good to see Allan is also finally on board w/ 2-4"+. The call map I produced in the pre-dawn hours this morning w/ an anticipated 2-5"+ jackpot zone near the VA border is looking real good overall right now imo. I might have to slightly adjust the locations of where the heaviest snow is, but not expecting any significant adjustments when I finalize it later this evening.

1611771600932.png
 
b44e8187a272f7e5a22093bcd68337b5.jpg


I’m not an artist, but this is my thinking. Light blue is up to 2” of slush. Purple is up to 1” of slush. Green is mainly rain, but .5” of slush is possible. Everything is melted by 3pm tomorrow afternoon.

EDIT: As everyone can see the dot on the map, that’s my location. Definitely not going for a home run swing in my area (or anywhere). I wish I could say there would be more, but my heart won’t let me. Just tells me that this will be a painful heartbreaker. I’ve seen the models show all kinds of snow and only to wake up the next day with garbage.
 
SENC said:
Honestly, I DO NOT expect any accumulations here.. Due too "soil Temps',, unless rates or a possible Frontal Geneses Ban develops very close to My north, (Which is Modeled by about 20 miles or so..)
if anything,,, I'm looking at a paste bomb Starting around Daybreak, lasting about 3~4 hours..
Which I'll Gladly accept..
;)
Anything "extra"? I'll Sacrifice a Virgin SnowMan too the Weather Gods,, LOL J/K.. ;)

For Sundays event...
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Accumulations at Topsail Beach? I wouldn't expect that either . . .
 
Webberweather53 said:
Good to see Allan is also finally on board w/ 2-4"+. The call map I produced in the pre-dawn hours this morning w/ an anticipated 2-5"+ jackpot zone near the VA border is looking real good overall right now imo. I might have to slightly adjust the locations of where the heaviest snow is, but not expecting any significant adjustments when I finalize it later this evening.

View attachment 68503
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These are ground truth predictions right Webb? [considering BL and soil temps yada yada]
 
tramadoc said:
His thinking is about like mine. I think he’s overdone on the 2-4” area around me.
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I've noticed in a lot of winter storms, there's usually a sharp cut-off in totals somewhere around east-central Tyrrell or western Dare counties between the Albemarle & Pamlico sounds, and totals are often lower for locations south of Elizabeth City immediately adjacent to the Albemarle sound. I'd wager he's a bit too far SE w/ his totals over E NC for these reasons among others and probably too low in SW VA.
 
Webberweather53 said:
I've noticed in a lot of winter storms, there's usually a sharp cut-off in totals somewhere around east-central Tyrrell or western Dare counties between the Albemarle & Pamlico sounds, and totals are often lower for locations south of Elizabeth City immediately adjacent to the Albemarle sound. I'd wager he's a bit too far SE w/ his totals over E NC for these reasons among others and probably too low in SW VA.
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Agreed some places in SW va could see 5-6 inches forsure
 
NAM busted hugely on temps today , in places like north ga , western sc/nc it is as much as 10 degrees warmer than what it has currently . RDU had 47 forecast by the NAM . It’s 51 with more time to warm up and clearing skies . I’m not saying it’s not going to snow but won’t this delay the changeover ?
 
Avalanche said:
54 and sunny. All precip wasted on cooling Im afraid.
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Yup, like the Jan 8th system. The timing was good because the snow fell in the late evening, but some of those models were still showing a couple of inches until the last minute. I got maybe half an inch and it was gone within an hour or so. I hate to be a downer, but if you are buying these GFS maps you may be setting yourselves up for disappointment. I am rooting for you guys though. But you have to realistic as well. Otherwise, you're going to need some booze to drink those sorrows away. Lol.
 
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