Yeah, that would also drive the cold down faster. As usual, we're faced with having to time things perfectly; and overperform to some extent.
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Wintry Jan 27-28 Snow Potential Official Thread
- Thread starter RBR71
- Start date
Yeah I think the house shook one time. Pretty awesome. Now, we'll wait for the snow. You are in a good spot, I think.
There's some noticeable differences in the mid levels between the GFS/NAM&Euro which is probably driving the more banded, heavier gfs
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Provided the heavier precip wasn't a result of a more amped with more WAA it would look much better, I'm just not sure we get the kind of precip the GFS is showing and cold air through the column too. Hope I'm wrong
I’m with you. From what I’m seeing it doesn’t look like the models are correct. I know how the weather works in this area and I just think it’s going to be too warm.
So any word on whether KRAX will be back up and running in time for this event? It shutdown on the 21st and they said for 5-7 days, just curious on progress, I couldn't find an update.
Weak sauce..... meh
Fountainguy97
Member
The NAM crushing our dreams.
Never thought I would be saying that phrase haha
Never thought I would be saying that phrase haha
Yeah couldn't even get one good NAMing.... I'll not be surprised if qpf is higher than what it is showing however, doesn't seem to be the amped up over the top precip machine it once was. Still the GFSs are on an island
znel52
Member
You know things are looking bad if you can't even get a good ole fashioned NAMming.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Yeah since the NAM upgraded it’s been on the drier side actually.
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
The 12z HRRR is better (for the short range models).
Kuchera:
Edit: I was 30 seconds too slow in posting.
znel52
Member
SCORE. I'm exactly in that anomalous blue dot in SE NC ????? Would be hilarious if that actually happened.12z HRRR
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
NCSNOW
Member
0z Euro,6z GFS,6ZFVGFS, 12ZHRR. All Good Hits
V/S
12z Nam suite is weak sauce.
Noticing a trend here. See if it keeps up at 12z. Then we'll know NAM new bias of lower qpf at play.
V/S
12z Nam suite is weak sauce.
Noticing a trend here. See if it keeps up at 12z. Then we'll know NAM new bias of lower qpf at play.
iGRXY
Member
I decided to put together a call map here as almost all the models have some form of hit for TN, NC, and VA. Everything from an inch or so to 7" is the spread. I would go for the lighter amounts but not quite as low as the euro has. There will be more widespread of the lower end amounts but you will likely have a few isolated higher amounts within each area.
Lol 3k barely had any precip that's crazy
The NAMs are awfully flat, I guess it's really the trend to watch.
blueheronNC
Member
Too bad WRAL doesn’t make its non-reflectivity dul-pol radar products available online. We could use a good correlation coefficient scan tomorrow night.
In my opinion, that's way too bullish. The temps are going to be in the mid-30s, and with rates that really don't seem to be that heavy, I expect much less. I don't like the NAM, but the last system did a good job showing the dry air.
I wouldn’t say the NAMS are on a trend I think they’re on an island ... usually they end up drier than reality shows especially in their longer ranges .. give them a few more cycles before we really freak out about them
Anybody??
Shoot them a tweet they are usually responsive
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
NAM looks to be all by itself. GFS and Euro continue to improve, and the para GFS has been holding steady the whole time.
Idk man I would be more on the it's just a dry bias if it were more similar to the others. The flat wave, no convergence idea is concerning but if the rest of the models come in not like the nam then it's just meh
It's not all by itself, the Euro is very much like the NAM with regard to a flat system and low end qpf.
iGRXY
Member
Even with a flatter wave I think those in NE NC stand the best chance as the low pulls away to get cranking. Like I said 80% - 90% of my call map are likely going to be on those lower end amounts but I definitely see isolated areas that get under a heavier band to pick up a quick 2 or 3 inches potentially. The euro isn’t as amped with the moisture as the GFS but the NAM really is by itself with the precip depiction. I think most of the northern tier counties in NC and the northeastern coastal plain will see an inch out of this. But some pockets of higher amounts very easily could be likely as well. But let’s see what the 12z suite says.
Bummer
Reply back and say "No, it doesn't help. It doesn't help at all. We have a mild, dry snowstorm coming, and we need to be able to see it!"
Icon didn't look bad
Lol I seriously considered it but I wanted to be nice, the last two times I tweeted weather reports to them they completely ignored it so hoping by being nice next time they will acknowledge hah!