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Pattern Jan 2025 Powered by Rheem AC
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Brent
Member
What's crazy about the GFS is this is before the hype about the SSW 
like it might just be the start
like it might just be the start
If you want to know how to develop the nao kind of insitu then use that to cold and snow that 12z gfs run was a classic example. It's amazing to watch the full loop and each system gradually be farther SE
Op run caveats and all, but man, check please!
Makeitsnow
Member
We haven't even had digital fantasy snow in a long time so this already feels like a win lol
Even in fantasy storms the athens/upper savannahs river screw zone persists.
The cool part is if this gfs run were to be right there would be a relatively long time after that first system for us to score/score again. That pattern doesn't rapidly wash out like we have seen in years past
Just to keep itWhat's crazy about the GFS is this is before the hype about the SSW
an actual SSW is highly unlikely in Jan, but SPV weakening and stretching could help as we move toward mid-Jan
That op run takes us right to 11 real fast.
rburrel2
Member
Everybody always wants to say we are always can kicking, but the upcoming banger of a pattern seems to have sped up its arrival time if anything. We’ve almost got it inside day ten now.
Euro bullies the attempted -nao out of the way and ends pretty mediocre. This too is within the realm of possibility
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Not to be negative, but inside D10 literally means nothing. Between D7-10 you are prone to see wild adjustments as the modeled pattern gets inside the higher resolution part of the run. At D10, you're still outside of model truncation and skill of the model. Get it inside D5 then there is legitimate reason to be excited and consider something a real threat.
This is impressive to me post D10
Impressive 
packfan98
Moderator
Blocked in too. Should have some staying power through our coldest days of the year historically.
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
Long ways out of course, but verbatim, this could be a fun front to watch. Looks like the bulk pivots N of us but would be interesting to see where the next few frames went
Just a reminder of P7/P8 MJO January.
What the heck is going on with the GEFS forecast?
The barrow boner aka barrow poke ridge is back on means. Normally a precursor to a legit Arctic airmass
This is good. You don't want too much suppression. Yes, way out there though.
1/2 aren't terrible either
Stalls out in 7/8, which would be great. Some of the numbers that may look mismatched are from January (19th) if that's what you're asking.
Keeping in mind that these forecasted anomalies are near the coldest time of year, this is an impressive coast-to-coast anomaly for an ensemble at this range. Wow.
Southern Track
Member
18z GFS bringing the hounds from a cold standpoint.
Likely about to get another fantasy run here at the end of the GFS
She will likely get squashed but man the potential getting into January.
Jessy89
Member
Suppressed look at this range isn’t a bad thing. Don’t see this being a cutter or Apps runner.
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I like this progression. Siberian express into the lower 48. She’s primed. 
Nope and wouldn't be surprised to get a clipper (or 2) behind this big push
ITUSETOSNOW
Member
D a m n,,, even the ATL heat island is gone from that run.
Brent
Member
Spann made a post about "much colder air"
Stating the obvious I think, but if I had one wish, it would be to see this type of S shape to setup over S Greenland to New England (from Euro Wk Ctrl - I’ll look at any model run lol). Get something like that in concert with the western ridge, and it would be hard for the pattern to fail. But getting that feature to come together has been ever elusive in recent years
You're right, this is the look that dreams (and RDU 6"+ snow storms) are made of. It's been teased several times over the last 5 years or so, but we never can get it to fully come together.
It's textbook how you get a high-impact, long-duration, widespread winter storm in the Southeast.
A blend between the Euro Weekly and GEFS Extended for Jan 5 to Jan 12 looks pretty good
GFS doing that thing where it drops the entire North Pole down to Texas again. Lol
