I ain't even gonna lie Eric, you nailed this. I admittedly have my doubts about people talking non stop about weather weeks out, but you pretty much called this one. Now we just need it to happen.
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Pattern Jan 2025 Powered by Rheem AC
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Brick Tamland
Member
And some precip to go along with it.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Thanks. You do this long enough and understand how things interact on different scales (from climate to shorter term weather), and what your limits of predictability are in different situations, you can kinda get the hang of super long range forecasting after a while, tho it’s not easy.
I still screw up a lot & probably more than I get things right at times (like not seeing this December being cold, completely busting on this years hurricane season being so active later on, or last year banking on Feb being good when it wasn’t), but that’s not different from operational weather forecasting, it’s just a different flavor of it. Instead of worrying about what’s going to happen each specific day over the next week, you’re really worried about much broader multi-day to multi week or even multi month periods. Funnel forecasting approach.
Man, the trough axis like almost the very last thing I would be concerned about right now. The only thing I might put lower on the worry list is Gulf convection robbing the moisture feed.
Avalanche
Member
I don’t think they are trolling, just excited about cold. I really think they believe the models will deliver.
This is pretty easily how you get a suppressive pattern rather quick. Already a big 50/50 low in place. What makes this look different from the early dec pattern is far more 50/50 low and a far more open S/W US from a more west ridge axis signaling energy 
Also the pac jet is almost perfectly extended at the end of the EPS. To Hawaii. Nice Aleutian low as well
Also the pac jet is almost perfectly extended at the end of the EPS. To Hawaii. Nice Aleutian low as well
Brent
Member
Of course it's 500 hours out but. This is also a Texas based page
EC AI is far more aggressive with the Atlantic blocking with a giant west based -NAO vs the Alaskan block, rather more flatter west coast ridging. And even it was about to produce a big winter storm for the Carolina’s
Some of our best winter storms have happened with a strong block over Baffin Bay and flatter western ridge.
Brent
Member
That was our only real winter last year. The only decent accumulation and almost as cold as 2021 was
Snowman63
Member
The brunt of the cold was a little colder in my area, but the duration of the cold did not last near as long as the stretch of cold in Feb/2021.
griteater
Member
*At / Near end of model runs*
GEFS weakest with Pac Jet / GEPS the strongest....EPS in between. Western ridge anomaly responds accordingly (diff among the 3 best seen in Western U.S. in 2nd loop)
griteater
Member
Last 4 runs of GEFS Extended for Jan 6 - 13
griteater
Member
-NAO on GEFS Extended
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
It seems like it's been FOREVER since we had a legitimate 50/50 but it one of those ingredients that seems to be key for us, slowing down the progression enough to allow precip to catch up with the cold. It would be really nice to see some good 50/50s.
griteater
Member
Western ridging churning on the CMC Ensemble Dec 30 to Jan 6
griteater
Member
Jan 1 to Jan 6 on the GEFS. North Pac Low / -EPO ridge / U.S. trough elements are improved (2nd loop is run to run change)
